Vertu Motors Share Discussion Threads

[ksharlandjiev] 07/10/2016 07:19

Zeus Capital – UK Motor retail sector / SMMT September 2016 dataPosted by: giles.arbor 5th October 2016Zeus Capital to noted that the SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) has released new car registration data for the key trading period of September this morning. Headline numbers are +2% YOY. Private registrations were -2% within this number continuing the downward trend we have seen in this data since April. Fleet was 7% showing the excess capacity we continue to see in the market, and we believe self-registrations would have been a well-used tactic to arrive at these numbers. That said, we believe this outcome should secure a solid outcome for the UK dealers for 2016, albeit with increasing uncertainty going into 2017.SMMT data: Data for the key period of September (typically >15% of annual registrations) has been released this morning. New car registrations were +2% vs. a very strong period last year, and marks the highest September on record with the market YTD +2.6%. This is only the second time that the 2m mark has been passed in September since 2004. We view this as a good outcome for the industry, and should secure a good 2016 outcome for most PLC dealer groups. However, We note that private registrations have been negative on a monthly basis since April, and this performance also reflects orders generated many months in advance in some cases.Mix issues: Within the mix, private registrations were -1.7% with fleet +7.3% and business -14.9% (small volume at 23,008 vs. total registrations of 469,696). Brand performances of note include BMW +10%, Mercedes +16%, Honda +7%, Audi +9%, Land Rover +49% (volume driven by model changes albeit with some pressure on margin) and Jaguar +33%. Elsewhere VW was -14%, Vauxhall was -5% and Ford was -11% as the volume sector continues to underperform, albeit in some cases this can relate to the product cycle.Outlook: We believe this is a good outcome, and this should ensure the 2016 market ends up above 2.6m albeit with the aid of self-registrations. Looking into 2017 the picture is less clear, and we note the SMMT has recently cut its 2017 by 6% to 2.5m registrations. In a historic context this remains a good outcome, however, we think it is sensible to assume the market falls back from here. Weaker sterling relative to the Euro and Japanese Yen may dictate OEM behavior going into 2017 particularly as hedging strategies start to come away in Q1 2017. A softer new car market is not necessarily a negative in our view, and might help residual values and therefore used car margins over time.Next scheduled news flow: Vertu Motors Plc (LON:VTU) H1 results 12 October, Inchcape Plc (LON:INCH) Q3 IMS 27th October, Cambria Automobiles Plc (LON:CAMB) FY results 22 November. hxxp://www.directorstalkinterviews.com/zeus-capital-uk-motor-retail-sector-smmt-september-2016-data/412712038

[mortimer7] 05/10/2016 09:50

There was a welcome boost for the UK motor sector this morning, and in the wider context the UK economy, (brexit concerns etc) as the SMMT published their figures for new car registrations for the month of September - the second largest month for the industry with the new plate change. The highest ever number of units for a September were recorded, 469,696 being 1.6% over September 2015. YTD figures for 2016 are now 2.6% ahead of 2015. Hopefully this performance is reflected by VTU when they announce their half year results next Wednesday (12th).

[bigdazzler] 05/10/2016 09:49

I have a fair bit of money in this stock and it is the stock that causes me most concern.

[mortimer7] 04/10/2016 10:09

Over the last 3 years VTU share price has always gone on a little rally in Q4 after the results. (albeit without the macroeconomics bearing quite the same influence as now). Fingers crossed this year for the same, especially as it's starting from a low base.

[polecat70] 28/9/2016 19:25

It's slowly catch a monkey with this stock I'm afraid, but good news is when their low just pile more money in because it's only a matter of time till you get the return!

[daddy2010] 28/9/2016 05:22

I share your pain!

[tiggertiger] 27/9/2016 19:47

Quote " next 5 minutes"! I have ploughed more and more into this share over 3 years and it's easily the worst performing share in my portfolio ???

[daddy2010] 26/9/2016 23:21

Make that earnings are out on the 12 October (don't you just hate predictive Text!!!)

[daddy2010] 26/9/2016 23:20

Yes teachings are out on 12 October.With the current valuation (46.5p) underpinned by 40p in property backing & cash there is a big margin of safety here. Throw in 6.2p of growing earning, a high quality management team and a pension scheme in credit, all we need is the positive confirmation that further expansion will NOT be funded by more equity raises (the cities fear I believe) and these should motor back to 60p+ in no time imho.A p/e of 6.2x for next year is just plain silly for a company that also has nearly £100m in banking facilities it could deploy if it wants too / needs to if we move into recession.An expanding annuity income of £22m+ from the high margin aftersales business also provides a lot of free cash flow to finance Capex to refurbish dealerships (increasingly being demanded by the manufacturers which is why the smaller independents are in trouble allowing vertu to snap them up on the cheap) also sets them aside from the weaker players. These strong and trusted relationships with the larger OEMs (Ford, Jaguar etc) is what had allowed Vertu to continually deliver above average sector growth in a very competitive and low margin business and this intangible goodwill is not easy to build and should not be underestimated.If management can continue to deliver and expand the group margin (currently 1.2%) from a low standing start at a young and growing business by executing it's strategy (buying underperforming dealerships from distressed sellers/retiring owners, turns them around through refurbishment / implementing new it systems and vertus slicker sales processes) then there is no reason why margins and earnings cannot double from here (Pendragon & Inchcapes margins are 2.1 and 4.2% respectively albeit from slightly different business mixes). This is how Liberum derive their very achievable price target of 100p so you can seen the potential here.Need I go on.........This will take time of course but all good thinks come to those that wait unfortunately most shareholders want everything in the next 5 minutes these days?D

[polecat70] 26/9/2016 20:34

The second half results to be announced at the city next month and a record profit should hopefully boost the very under valued share price

[bolador] 22/9/2016 11:13

KPWF, Yes it looks as if they have shot themselves in the foot with their smart equity issue.The management should realise they are paddling like worried ducks and staying in the same place, significant holders might have to have a word.

[babysanj] 21/9/2016 16:12

there is a massive buy this afternoon fro £94k. this is bottom now. Financial should be strong. back to 60p anybody?

[zoolook] 21/9/2016 09:14

In reply to bigbertie: That discount didn't last for very long though!

[ksharlandjiev] 21/9/2016 08:18

Vertu invests £3million in Bolton FordStore Vertu Motors plc is investing £3million in its Bristol Street Motors Ford Bolton dealership to create a FordStore showroom. The development project at the Higher Bridge dealership will include the demolition of the existing showroom and the construction of a new dealership that complies with FordStore standards. The new site will include a Vignale lounge with the latest technology to assist customers to choose and customise their new car. Bristol Street Motors Ford Bolton’s LCV showroom will also be demolished and rebuilt with the workshops being extended to include additional vehicle ramps, commercial vehicle ramps, and a further MOT lane.Further changes will be made with the Approved Used space being relocated, and expanded, and a new wash and valet bay being added. There will also be a focus on energy efficiency with the roof covering and exterior cladding and showroom glazing being optomised to reduce their environmental impact. The site’s general manager, Darren Murray, commented: “It is a real honour to be selected as a FordStore and offer customers the full range of Ford products and services, including the premium vehicles. “The significant investment will completely transform the dealership for both customers and colleagues. The fantastic new environment across all areas of the business will be complemented by our exemplary standards of service and we look forward to welcoming new and existing customers.” hxxp://www.motortradenews.com/news/automotive-news/39365-vertu-invests-in-3million-in-bolton-fordstore.html

[cockerhoop] 20/9/2016 20:06

Bolton FordStore hTTps://www.bristolstreet.co.uk/news/investment-in-3m-in-prestigious-fordstore-dealership-6833/

[bigbertie] 20/9/2016 18:22

There was another big drop after EU referendum, which also hit Lookers and Pendragon. Presumably fall in Sterling was the main driver of that. However I agree with you about discounted placings.

[kpwf] 20/9/2016 15:02

You can trace the decline of this share right back to a Trading Statement on 8th March when the Board informed shareholders that it was "considering options" to raise further capital which may include a "potential equity issue". That was followed by a discounted placing to institutional investors announced the following day! I think private shareholders are now a bit wary about the possibility of future discounted placings which they are excluded from.

[ksharlandjiev] 20/9/2016 14:10

Most boring stock I've ever hold... let's hope it will move in the right direction anytime soon or I will fall a sleep lol.

[tomoneyfox] 19/9/2016 12:43

Lots of buying here today.

[hays1] 14/9/2016 15:47

Collins Sarri Statham Investments believes carpet and floor coverings retailer Carpetright and car dealer Vertu Motors look like acquisition...

[houxty] 11/9/2016 12:34

my retirement fund "in the middle of no of f--king no where" Morpeth is an affluent market town with a huge catchment area situated about 15 miles north of Newcastle upon Tyne. If you choose to find out anything about the demographic of the area, you'll find that it's a very carefully and well thought out location for a dealership.

[cockerhoop] 10/9/2016 19:43

He knows the company really well, the share price is up 30% since his last slagging when he suggested it was going bust. MRF - any more companies you think are going bust, this has the potential to be a very profitable system.

[ksharlandjiev] 10/9/2016 13:38

I see, it seems you know the business better. (Y)

[my retirement fund] 10/9/2016 09:08

Vertu launches Honda dealership in the middle of nowhere Vertu Honda has opened its new "in the middle of no of f--king no where" dealership following a £430,000 investment............