Vernalis Share Discussion Threads

[qazwsx123] 09/10/2007 10:31

VER heading for sub 10p soon imo.

[latifs100] 08/10/2007 17:52

is 20p bottom for now

[jarbie] 06/10/2007 22:40

QA - £20 mil is what they were going to get if successful - at present they have enough cash for 18 months at the present rate of burn - they could delay going to the market for up to 12 months depending on their expectations in the short term

I cannot see the share price recovering until some good news comes along - nor do I understand the recovery this week - all judgements are based on speculation - there is nothing but risk in this share even if it is taken over - dyor - jarbie

[qazwsx123] 05/10/2007 11:47

I expect VER will now seek to raise £20m in a share issue, so that would involve huge share dilution of the existing stock (market capitalisation today @ 24p = £75m).

One to avoid imo.

P.S.
If the price falls, the dilution would further increase.

[davius] 05/10/2007 09:28

That's me out. Not quite a day trade but under 24 hours, one of the quickest 20% profits I've made in a while. Good luck anyone staying put.

[davius] 04/10/2007 17:41

I bought in today too, but I doubt it will be a rights issue latifs, more likely a placing which means the PI won't get a look in.

[wiganer] 04/10/2007 17:02

Ignore (that includes you Hammy!)

[latifs100] 04/10/2007 14:29

from 16p to 23p... wot a recovery.. want to add more.. waiitng for this rights issue as others are saying

[paddywak1967] 04/10/2007 13:15

Someone wants this share. Very heavy buying by the directors indicates that they remain very confident and this appears to have gone into auction at 22p on the buy and bid so the shares seem very popular. Nearly constant buying this morning as well !

[qazwsx123] 04/10/2007 12:12

I think it is inevitable VER will stage another dilutive share issue to raise cash after failing to get the FDA approval this week.

There appears to be no reason to hold VER now, especially as there are better bets elsewhere in the sector (e.g. AZM - expecting "transforming deals in 2007) imo.

[latifs100] 04/10/2007 08:23

any ideas on whats bee happin in background??... is 20p bottom for now

[vow] 03/10/2007 13:54

They have just gone to auction so fund raising happening today by the look of it.

For those that missed it trading was suspended for about 20mins at lunchtime and the shares went to Auction, as they do at the begining and end of each day. This may have be the company selling the new equity into the market.

We shall see.

[vow] 03/10/2007 12:09

If it is a private placing, as they seem to be hinting at, then it might not be that drastic. See AZM, last year a fund raising was carried out at a slight discount and no one even noticed.

[jarbie] 03/10/2007 11:58

we now seem to have VER confirmation that they will have to go to the market - the questions remain - how, when and at what level ? this will determine the share price in the short term - my guess is at about 10 p - a discount on 10/16 ie just under 40% - a significant dilution of equity - regrettably reminiscent of British Biotech in the past - coming to the market not for the first time - jarbie

[vow] 03/10/2007 11:25

At least Fellner has put his money where his mouth is which seems to have added some confidence.

[vow] 03/10/2007 08:04

Vernalis may shed jobs after drug rejected

Marianne Barriaux
Tuesday October 2, 2007

Guardian
Vernalis, the biopharmaceuticals company, may cut jobs after US regulators rejected its treatment for menstrual migraine, creating a significant cash problem for the group.

Investors had expected the US food and drug administration to give the green light to Frova for the prevention of menstrual migraine. The drug is already used to treat acute migraine.

Shawn Manning, an analyst at Landsbanki, said: "We believed the drug had a 60% probability of outright approval, and a 30% probability of approval following a request for further data."

But the FDA rejected the drug outright, questioning its long-term safety, and asking whether data from trials was clinically meaningful.

If the drug had been approved, Vernalis would have received a $40m (£20m) milestone payment from Endo Pharmaceuticals, its US partner. Vernalis owes Endo $50m, and analysts said it could have used the money to pay back some of the loan.

Simon Sturge, Vernalis's chief executive, said yesterday the US rejection meant the company now had "a cash issue". "It is inevitable that we will be a narrower organisation than we are today," he said.

But he said he did not know whether that meant job cuts, a reduction in the group's portfolio of drugs, or both. The group employs 250 people, including 195 in Britain. Shares in the group halved yesterday, falling 20.5p to 20p.

Samir Devani, an analyst at Nomura Code Securities, said: "They are going to need to do substantial restructuring and get the business down to a more manageable level."

Mr Sturge said he was "amazed and shocked" at the decision. Triptans - the class of drugs that Frova belongs to - are known to have had cardiovascular side effects. But the company said there had been no serious adverse event in the trials. Longer studies would be required to reassure the FDA of its safety - a move that analysts said was unlikely.

[vow] 03/10/2007 08:01

Jarbie,

No problem if I get a reply, but as you can imagine they must be VERY busy.

I don't agree with you comments on these statements as they specifically state if the FDA do not give their approval there will be a funding gap as they will not get their $40m. In which case they will look at alternative funding and may have to go to the markets for money.

[jarbie] 02/10/2007 23:55

VOW - point taken - however, the situation has changed this week and the questions relate to the current position - we are in a dynamic situation and cannot depend on statements issued some time ago - VER lost $40 million payment expected this year - how does this impact on their earlier statements ?

hopefully you will share the answers you get from the company - I am most concerned with if and when VER may go to the market for more cash - this will impact the share price most directly at this level - regards - jarbie

[vow] 02/10/2007 22:32

Everyone really should read the RNSs before posting most of your questions were answered weeks ago:

"In a telephone interview, Vernalis chief executive Simon Sturge said that
there is a funding gap between 2009 and 2010 and that the company may either go
to the market, or agree licensing deals for its new V24343 weight loss product."



The question I have put to the company is about what the company's timescales are for re applying and possible costs invloved as none of this was covered in the latest announcement. Only when they have given me a clear answer will I think about buying any of these.

[jarbie] 02/10/2007 20:17

VER did not endear themselves to FDA in the past few months - we are all human after all - this is risk money - only invest if you can afford to loose it - or have to average down with the same caution - jarbie

[zarophe] 02/10/2007 19:09

similar scenario to what happened to a company called British Biotech if I remember rightly. Oh dear.

[the_doctor] 02/10/2007 18:36

Will they be able to achieve any significant milestone with that 12-18 months cash?

Perhaps they could outlicense something?