Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 10/7/2017 23:00

APAD

Clln, the vexed question.
They are not a buy at present :-)

Seriously, it doesn't look good.
The balance sheet looked manageable, as long as they didn't have any 'problems'. Despite comment in mainly trade magazines about a couple of contracts, there was no indication of problems such as we have seen. They had indicated that they were in the process of reviewing markets. I saw that as reasonable in the current climate.
What were the auditors doing? You cannot sustain losses of this magnitude in a few months. The institutions clearly didn't pick it up, other than the Hedgies, and they had been short for so long they lulled you into a false sense of security.

My faith in management, to stick to the tried and tested business model, is in tatters. There needs to be a root and branch cull of the perpetrators who knew and misled everyone.

I assume that the services business is profitable, and will continue to generate cash. It is a plus.
Exiting bad contracts will draw a line under the problems, or so I hope.

The balance sheet clearly needs a big rights issue, and sooner rather than later. The company needs to repay the Convertibles in 2019. Not so far away.

Based on the outcomes achieved at Balfour Beatty, the company can recover, hopefully in reasonable time from this point. I doubt that it will go bust.
I will sit tight and see what is offered by way of rights before I make a final decision.

Sitting on the fence can be tough, given this situation, but that is what I will do for the present.

red

[redartbmud] 10/7/2017 22:40

jane

Yes, as I have accounts with H-L their share prices are live, but as with other sites, the Index is delayed by 15 minutes.

red

[apad] 10/7/2017 22:12

FT on CLLN:
"Are investment managers at Standard Life, Brewin Dolphin and Schroders particularly affected by moonlight? And music? And love? And romance? Because they appear to have let Carillion lead them on something of a dance. And they did not pay anywhere near enough attention to the very obvious possibility of trouble ahead.

For these shareholders in the FTSE 250 outsourcing group, on Monday that trouble ahead quickly became trouble underneath the share price.

Carillion’s admission that its profits would miss forecasts, its dividends stop, its debt rise and its chief executive depart sent the shares plunging 39 per cent. But the bigger question for anyone with money in those managers’ portfolios is: how on earth did they miss this trouble, given how clearly it was signposted?

One-quarter of Carillion’s shares had been sold short by hedge funds and other speculators who were convinced they could profit by buying them back at a lower price. They noticed what many others had over the past year and half: Carillion’s contract accounting appeared optimistic, its dividend unsustainable, its debt high, its cash conversion weak. Their short selling — visible on any fund manager’s Bloomberg screen — was the City equivalent of a massive sign saying: ‘Trouble Ahead!’ in big red letters.

You would need a very good, and specific, excuse to ignore it. So, what are the excuses of some the top 10 holders of long positions in Carillion, as listed by Bloomberg?

BlackRock, listed with 8 per cent of the shares, has billions in passive index tracker funds. It has no choice, then, but to hold most FTSE 250 stocks.

Hargreaves Lansdown, listed with just under 5 per cent, appears because it holds assets on behalf of individuals who use its trading platform. It does not hold any of the shares within its own funds.

Standard Life, listed as a 5 per cent cent shareholder, turns out to have an entirely valid excuse: that percentage holding dates from two years ago, and has since been reduced to 0.1 per cent. Several aspects of Carillion’s financials were seen as red flags by its managers — not least a reliance on one-off gains to hit its profit forecasts, and something other than cash generation to justify its dividends.

But Brewin Dolphin and Schroders, listed as holding just under 5 and 3 per cent respectively, seem to have led investors up the moonlit path alongside them. Brewin had urged Carillion to do more to cut its debt, but read its dividends as a sign that short sellers might be wrong. Schroders did not let its motivation, or current holding, be known.

Their clients deserve better. Not every short position is a sell signal. But past examples — from Aryzta to Quindell — suggest shorting, and the arguments for it, must be taken seriously by long-only managers. As the rest of the song goes, if there’s trouble ahead, its best to act “Before they ask us to pay the bill, and while we still have the chance.”

[apad] 10/7/2017 20:22

red,
What have you decided about CLLN?
Speculation about placing and takeover.
One comment I thought was perceptive was that CLLN's customers would be twitchy about the company's financial problems and so future contracts could depend on a repaired balance sheet. Costain was quoted as an example.

I seem to be stuck in a weak SOU (although in significant profit). CEO has purchased and some other large purchases, but PIs are heading for the hills. The start of new news flow in September, so it might be better to stay put and sell a chunk later in the year.

apad

[apad] 10/7/2017 20:10

Finished applying for an IG share trading account in a company name - ten documents!

Feeling very twitchy about the iii takeover of TD.

If IG open my company account I shall ask them to transfer my TD/iii account.

My account is large.

Any advice about pitfalls and tank traps on the way.

I've been with TD since it was TD Ameritrade and have never moved accounts before.

apad

[apad] 10/7/2017 15:27

I will for Stairway, red. But it won't do for the competition entries. Too much work.

Still, I suppose it'll be sorted eventually.

apad

[apad] 10/7/2017 14:52

Oh dear! Google is also 68.5 on 4 July, V.


apad

[valhamos] 10/7/2017 14:33

An example where the Yahoo price is not correct I've just seen is DOTD - the price is 68.5 with a date of 4 July as opposed to 70p live.

[valhamos] 10/7/2017 12:21

I have had problems (including closing prices) with the Yahoo feed over the last couple of weeks but it has gradually got better. Intra day prices seem OK at the moment.

[apad] 10/7/2017 11:44

Pete,
I make everything as automatic as I can.
apad

[pet lover] 10/7/2017 10:53

HYDRUS and others.

Another of my growth stocks has a brokers report out this morning.

[pet lover] 10/7/2017 10:03

BST has just appointed two HEAVYWEIGHTS to the board.

This is the company I expect to grow revenues 1000% this year.

Look at the market cap V growth prospects.


For those that constantly accuse me of RAMPING please read the BST posts over the weekend.

Another poster "Hedgehog" has his own Shells thread started 3 years ago.

I researched and posted on just five of them at the time.

If sold since at the highs you would be up 500%.

If you sold all five today it's 320%.

Good luck.

I look for growth before the crowds.

[petersinthemarket] 10/7/2017 09:49

>A - Forgive me for being inquisitive, I know its none of my business, but why would anyone want to use a commercial portfolio structure when it's so easy to build one. Like many I guess, I have a spreadsheet structure that I have been using and developing for quite some years. Tells me everything I need to know about progress for the minor inconvenience of filling in the closing sp's each evening when any trend looks particularly interesting. pete

[apad] 10/7/2017 08:54

Yahoo feed seems OK.

If Google doesn't mend I'll have to change the feed for the competition :-(

In the meantime does anyone have advice on the best (free) website to record a portfolio?

apad

[apad] 10/7/2017 08:49

Google feed on AIM shares has gone to rats.

apad

[apad] 10/7/2017 08:31

PTSG has increased its borrowing facilities.
It looks as if the specialist function of high maintenance and installation is served by a fragmented industry and that PTSG has many opportunities to acquire small businesses and achieve the economies of scale.
I'm pleased that it is run by industry professionals, not professional managers.
It is a BTFD share. One in May and one in June.
Beware the spread.

apad

[apad] 10/7/2017 07:50

Says it all.

Will short buying support the price until the new CEO kitchen sinks?

Tough red :-(

apad

[redartbmud] 10/7/2017 07:43

Further down the pages:

Clln

Deterioration in cash flows on a select number of construction contracts led the Board to undertake an enhanced review of all of the Group's material contracts, with the support of KPMG and its contracts specialists, as part of the new Group Finance Director's wider balance sheet review.

· This review has resulted in an expected contract provision of £845m at 30 June 2017, of which £375m relates to the UK (majority three PPP projects) and £470m to overseas markets, the majority of which relates to exiting markets in the Middle East and Canada. The associated future net cash outflows in respect of these contracts is £100m-£150m (primarily in 2017 and 2018).

· As a result of the enhanced contracts review and the strategic actions below, reflecting difficult markets and exits from certain territories, Carillion is issuing revised full-year guidance, with revenue now expected to be between £4.8bn and £5.0bn and overall performance expected to be below management's previous expectations.

It looks real bad Bill.

red

[redartbmud] 10/7/2017 07:36

Problems in Paradise:

Clln RNS. It seems like a hurricane may be about to happen.
Carillion plc announces today that Keith Cochrane has been appointed as Interim Group Chief Executive, while a search is undertaken for a permanent appointee. Richard Howson has stepped down as Group Chief Executive and from the Board. Richard will stay with the Group for a period of up to one year to support the transition.

Oooooppps from Orpington.

red

[hazl] 10/7/2017 06:49

APAD Thanks for the register article above.
Thankfully it doesn't seem to be the case for WAND but it does appear to be true for PROX sadly.
I have mixed feelings about it all,honestly.
In one way you can't stop innovation but conversely I don't like the big-brother theme like many people.

IMO