Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[eagle eye] 26/11/2024 10:50

Investing isn't easy when you see virtues in a company and the share price heads in the opposite direction.
Being an investor is difficult at times and many people aren't cut out for it.
There were are few sellers this morning and market makers marked the price down to attract buyers and make their turn.
The price markdown attracted a few more weak seller which wasn't helped by the chart looking rubbish.
Volume is light at less that 100K, so only £40K worth.
Investors have to balance risk vs opportunity, but in my eyes this looks cheap on a 2 to 3 year view, but what do I know. Mr Market has a view and currently it's different to mine.
As the saying goes 'If you don't know who you are, then the stock market is a very expensive place to find out'.

[deanowls] 26/11/2024 08:11

When does it ever? There’s risk there but they’ve shown they can generate cash if needed and I expect that to continue. But that’s what makes a market.

[celeritas] 26/11/2024 01:26

Maybe but the market doesn't seem to agree.

[deanowls] 25/11/2024 18:14

I think you’ll be surprised. Usa launch not in the figures. If they get this right it will be a steal.

[celeritas] 25/11/2024 16:30

Same here Basem.. I think they have paid way too much and now debt which was coming down nicely is back at 1.7X.. There is a synergy with balance activ but it's not a good addition for me at that price.

[basem1] 25/11/2024 16:00

At what point does this start to look cheap again ? I was not that impressed with the latest acquisition Perhaps we may drift back to 35p What will Mr Slater be thinking here Interesting times

[eagle eye] 05/11/2024 20:27

CEO Jerry Randall discusses the latest acquisition with Paul Hill.
Runtime around 20 mins:



Very informative and well worth watching.
Most of the investment in building the app, the research and infrastructure has already happened.
Gearing is forecast to fall from x 1.6 in Dec 24 to x 0.8 by Dec 25.

[eagle eye] 04/11/2024 09:32

More info on the latest acquisition:

Business News Wales 14th Oct 2024

[rivaldo] 31/10/2024 09:40

Excellent new article on the new acquisition from the Oak Bloke:



"Conclusion

VLG don’t say how much below 1X adj.EBITDA/Debt they foresee being for the end of 2025. I consider only a 9% improvement to profit from 2024 to 2025 and only a 25% improvement to H&H profits is simply too pessimistic. Put it this way the 2 ex-owners of H&H I suspect won’t get their extra £2.5m if the business can only deliver £200k extra profit!!!

Beyond that the simple observation I’d also make is that growth in key VLG brands is much higher than 9%, and the headwinds through overstocking which made 1H24 are not recurring.

This is my profit model which includes 2025 (me - see the web link).

I therefore am going to agree with the “double digits” revenue for H&H combined with just 10% revenue growth for the rest of VLG.

Based on a 70/30 split (H&H adds a further chunk to the VLG brands lifting margin) and using a 45% average margin for VLG brands and 32% for Customer I get to a £28.8m GP. Lower interest rates and strong cash generation keeps interest payments below £2m and we therefore see a quadrupling of profit after tax in 2025.

So H&H looks complementary to VLG’s buy and build approach. It will help usher in stronger profits in 2025, which on a £55m market cap suggests a P/E of 8.3X. Even a 15X valuation is undemanding - and that places VLG at £100m market cap, nearly double today.

Is that perhaps why we saw 115k shares each bought by the Chair and NED today? Is that perhaps why Mark Slater continues to accumulate VLG too?"

[brad_k] 30/10/2024 18:07

Is there an error/misprint here, the "global menopause market" is projected to grow from $16bn in 2023 to $600bn in 2030 ... that's a huge market and phenomenal you growth.

[qs99] 30/10/2024 16:17

Agreed Riv, a statement of intent in my view! Just now have to wait a few months until NY update from memory as to next "event"....let's see. DYOR

[rivaldo] 30/10/2024 14:19

Thx QS99 for the heads up re the two director purchases today - 233,000 or so shares bought by the Chairman and NED is quite a hefty sum.

[qs99] 30/10/2024 12:08

Surprised BrummieGit hasn't posted?

Thanks Riv for update. Think 68p TP will gradually be upgraded as VLG deliver DYOR

[qs99] 30/10/2024 11:52

Looks a good deal IMO, price paid looks fine IMO again. Market seem indifferent. Really positive however to see a meaningful Director purchase at same time.

DYOR

[deanowls] 30/10/2024 09:23

They are paying for growth upfront I feel and you have to hope the people who run it don’t disappear after a year and they want to build it bigger. Unsure what their cut is but need to incentivize growth.

There’s a big market to go at for menopause at the moment so will be interesting to see it play out.

[thedudie] 30/10/2024 08:27

Seems a good acquisition with good growth potential.

With new products coming through in the short term it looks like that acquisition will perform well in coming years, especially if utilising the existing VLG distribution channels to expand the sales and marketing footprint which looks a bit restricted currently.

[rivaldo] 30/10/2024 07:44

Looks like a high quality and decent-sized acquisition today, with good synergy with the core Balance Activ brand.

Current £0.8m EBITDA run-rate shows considerable improvement over historic results affected by investment and which should in turn benefit VLG as that investment turns into sales.

Cavendish have left their forecasts unchanged until January's trading update, so remain at 4.6p EPS this year rising to 6.1p EPS next year, with a 68p target price:

[basem1] 16/10/2024 14:07

Mr Slater must have finished taking the slack here ?

[1jat] 07/10/2024 14:02

Jerry and Dan know the business very well.
In other news Reckitt CEO says he wants only power brands in his portfolio which suggests there could be some meaningful divestments….I wonder if any will fall to VLG which is very much a small fish in this large pond.

[rivaldo] 03/10/2024 09:04

Interesting update from the Oak Bloke with a forthright conclusion:



"Conclusion

At a forecast 2025 P/E of 11 and forecast 4X P/FCF and comparing it to peers on a 20X P/E basis (or higher) it’s easy to see how VLG can get to a valuation of 75p+.

But that’s just with the current trajectory. Given their success with acquiring and then integrating Earol, Gelclair and earlier acquisitions both in terms of growing revenue, improving margin and internalising production a further acquisition could ratchet this up further and faster - due to VLG’s proven capability to deliver synergy.

Meanwhile the harrumphing about a “slashed” forecast EPS doesn’t make sense nor does it stand up to accounting scrutiny. There is no evidence of management doing anything untoward in how they present their numbers vs how the broker reports them. Don’t let an inaccurate calculation in a broker note put you off what could be an interesting holding."

[basem1] 03/10/2024 08:26

Despite all the sells there is certainly not much spare stock around No appetite for the sellers at 43 so I would expect a quick bounce here

[chester9] 02/10/2024 14:01

Just watched investor meet. Worth watching Jerrys response to last questions. He is happy with results and fund investors he has met this week have been as well. Not least Slaters spending on more shares. The question definitely irritated him. They are hinting at possible acquisitions but intend to stay away from equity raise until share price is higher. Net debt coming down well allowing them enough leeway to acquire without equity. He stressed they will always be prudent.

[basem1] 01/10/2024 13:01

You would think the sellers are absolutely exhausted now A lot of selling the weeks before results and also after the results Looks quite a safe entry point given that there should be no downside surprises for the next 3-4 months

[rivaldo] 01/10/2024 12:42

Great to see Slater buying more and now going above 21%.

A positive write-up today from Mark Watson-Williams:



Extract:

"Venture Life Group – Just 9 times current year and 7 times prospective earnings, while brokers predict 52% uplift – well worth the ‘venture’"

"Analyst Views

Analysts Chris Donnellan and Stuart Harris, at Cavendish Capital Markets, have estimates out for the end-December year to increase its current-year revenues to £52.5m (£51.4m), while lifting adjusted pre-tax profits by over 60% to £2.9m (£1.8m), with earnings of 4.6p (4.1p) per share.

They go for £59.4m sales next year, almost doubling profits to £5.6m, generating 6.1p per share in earnings.

In My View

Selling globally, this group’s products are well-known and in growing markets.

Margins are increasing, while there are a number of possible acquisitions under consideration to expand the group’s portfolio.

On the back of the standstill sales in the first half of the year, increasing its Interim loss, the group’s shares eased back by 7% to 44.5p, valuing the company at only £56m, they were up to 51.25p in mid-July, which is a level that I consider will soon be bettered and then some.

Trading on 9.6 times current year earnings and just 7.3 times prospective, these shares are cheap."

[chester9] 01/10/2024 12:04

Yes you were right. Maybe Slater knows someone wants to buy VLG. Results were uninspiring so what do they know?