The big question is what are Slater going to do with such a large shareholding?I suspect that to dispose of it in the marget would decimate the share price. In my view notrealisstic in the short term.
I would suspect it could be a very long term holding or envisaged as part of a future takeover by an associate or other third party.
Come to your own conclusions |
Slater can't get enough of VLG shares.
Today's RNS shows Slater have bought almost another 1m shares in the last month - they now own 24.03% with 30.77m shares: |
Rivaldo
Agree completely
Was a little disaappointed with the update, probably because I was too optimistic.
I do however see a good momentum for the company as you noted and this could be strong till Dec 26.
Hopefully the update with the 24 annual acounts will detail more fully with progress with the integration etc. of H&H, which will hopefully give a fillip to the share price It will reflect approx 5 months experience compared with just 2 months for the Feb update
I doubled my shareholding @ 34p before the update was announced . This was initially a bad decision but now appears to be coming good. |
Certainly good to see a sustained rally this week.
With the H&H acquisition looking good, Customer Brands recovering and some orders being delayed into this year, hopefully 2025 should bring VLG's low multiple into even more perspective. |
More of the same
Price has just uncrossed at 36.9p during the auction with the bid-offer at 35p-37p.
They are pushing the price higher through the intraday auctions. That is unheard of, especially in a smaller cap where you can have very little traded over a week and auctions carry little weight.
The first auction at 08:50 was:
25k bid at 35.6p
25k bid at 35.7p
25k bid at 35.8p
25k bid at 35.9p
Nothing filled there.
The one at 10:50 had a further four orders:
25k bid at 35.6p
25k bid at 35.7p
25k bid at 35.8p
25k bid at 35.9p
25k bid at 36.3p
25k bid at 36.5p
25k bid at 36.8p
25k bid at 36.9p
Only that last order was met with a seller of 25k to uncross at 36.9p.
So the market sees the orders in the auction and then bids it higher, just like it is doing now.
This is so unusual.
Not suggesting it is a buy signal or anything like that, just curious to see if they keep coming in with these leaping 25k blocks.
Surely can't be news related. Maybe just value bottom pickers.
All imo
DYOR |
This is bizarre.
Just watched the closing auction.
Here is the updated order book:
25k bid at 34p
25k bid at 34.1p
25k and a 200k bid at 34.2p
25k bid at 34.3p
25k bid at 35p
25k bid at 35.1p
25k bid at 35.2p (This is now 15k due to partial 10k fill as per 35k uncross trade at 35.2p at 2pm)
25k bid at 35.3p (This order got fully filled as per the 35k uncross above so it is no longer there)
But we now also have higher bids:
25k bid at 35.8p
25k bid at 35.9p
25k bid at 36p
25k bid at 36.1p
Only that last order got a partial fill of 20k for a closing auction uncross at 36.1p.
So where are the bigger sellers gone....they could have hit all those orders. Are they up at 40p again?
Seen some things in my time, but not seen an order book on a market maker driven book like this.
Bizarre!
But something to keep an eye on.
All imo
DYOR |
 Appreciate the shout out Mr Dexy.
It is a tough ole slog right now for all of us.
Anyone having a go and putting their moves out in public of late are to be commended.
It is challenging to manoeuvre around the market without getting clobbered or making silly moves. It is that sort of market that can make us all look quite amateur at times.
It is just a furious arena of hostile bearishness.
We can see that from how VLG is moving. Even with a monster name like Slater and the Slater team buying big, and doing their best to clear sellers here, the Bearish train on the other side just doesn't stop.
But VLG aren't alone. This chart is prominent in the small cap world.
Even now, someone has had a buy order in size up from the lows to the current bid at 34p and sellers are still trying to exhaust it.
I don't know how we fight that. I use the stops as protection.
Further out in the longer term, hopefully we look back and wonder why we didn't pile in, but it is just year after year of disappointment in smaller caps.
No idea when it changes, but I'm sure we're all watching for these charts to make bullish turns and see a big lift in buying activity.
Thanks again.
All imo
DYOR |
QS99,
Sorry for the delay, I've just picked up your query from yesterday.
'EE, so EBITDA of £16m this year? and market cap is c.£43m? Any indication from broker on yield?'
Cavendish forecasts for EBITDA:
FY Dec 25: £13.8m
FY Dec 26: £15.9m
FY Dec 27: £18.6m
Debt is also forecast as:
FY Dec 25: -£17.5m
FY Dec 26: -£10.0m
FY Dec 27: -£1.2m
Best wishes
EE |
The trading statement being broadly in line for last year was never going to set the market alight.
But Cavendish still forecast 4.4p EPS for last year, rising to 6.3p EPS this year, 7.7p EPS next year and 9.5p EPS in 2027. This against a current 34p share price.
They've also raised their price target to 88p.
And it's worth noting in relation to the forecasts above that Cavendish state:
"We believe we have set conservative EBITDA expectations which leave the potential for upside from H&H integration synergies and general group wide rationalisation initiatives (including the introduction of a group wide ERP system and entity consolidation) designed to integrate previous acquisitions that have included non-UK operations." |
Hi Sphere,
I hope you are well.
I have seen your posts on a number of threads that I follow and just wanted to say that your trading ideas, and the commentary you provide with them ... detailing not just the good bits... but the risks as well...
... are really greatly appreciated... and always make very good reading.
So ... thank you... please keep up the good work... and the very best of luck with your investments!
Best wishes... and regards to all.
Mr D |
Its cheap for a reason ! |
Had a go at 32.5p. Stop under 32p.
This is the issue with VLG. Better to wait for the update because we can never be sure if they're going to hit their numbers.
So it is a downgrade with "broadly in line" with expectations.
Cavendish:
- Revenue £51m (excluding £0.8m from H&H) vs pre-acquisition forecast of £52.5m
EBITDA £11.3m vs forecast of £11.7m
- They have also cut the forecasts for FY25 pre-tax by 30% due to amortisation, exceptional cost and higher finance cost.
- Massaged the report by doing a comparison from FY23 to FY27 with comments on conservative forecasts. Very much needed for VLG!
- No dividend
There is alot more in there, but this is the thing on how can never be sure what VLG are going to come out with. It is partly why the market moves the way it does with some apprehension here. Sometimes you get exuberant lurches higher but then they get sold into. Yes, the wider market is pants too, but there is still a fair degree of apprehension on consistent target hitting - specifically at VLG.
But hey, the forward numbers are interesting and it looks oversold down here.
P/E of 5.5, 4.5 and 3.6 over 2025-2027 with respective free cash flow yields of 20%, 22% and 27%.
That is juicy enough to keep the market interested.
So I have had another go on the back of the latter bullish points rather than the bearish earlier ones. Buying a terrible chart though so I might have to take a little loss if the buying doesn't pick up.
But it will stay on the watchlist waiting to see if someone (other than Slater) tries to clear sellers out for some form of stablisation and bullish moves. Last time it had a little pop from around 37p to 40p, but the market closed that key breakout level off with a barrage of selling hitting the book.
After that the sellers exhausted Slater and carried on down to these levels.
Now we sit and wait to see whether the market can find some bullish boots, even if they are worn and soggy.
That is where the bar is right now.
It looks cheap.
Just all about being clear and consistent on delivery.
All imo
DYOR |
Today's Jerry Randall (CEO) interview with Paul Hill:
Run time 12 mins |
Cavendish have now released figures that reflect the H & H acquisition.
For FY to Dec 25
Revenue £66m, EBITDA 13.8m, PBT £4.6m and Adj EPS 6.3p
For FY Dec 26
Revenue £71.6m, EBITDA 15.9m, PBT £7.0m and Adj EPS 7.7p
Forecast to FY Dec 27 (NEW)
Revenue £77.7m, EBITDA 18.6m, PBT £9.8m and Adj EPS 9.5p
Please check your own figures.
Today's topline figures not exciting but if these figures are delivered, patience could be well rewarded IMHO. |
I see a positive move to their own brands where they can control the controllables and over time grow the business to a more worthwhile valuation.
H+H is the hope but more listings coming in line. Low debt which they are usually prudent with.
Business as usual and under valued. |
The TU is not making me want to hit the buy button Quite disappointing and a flat tone |
Isn't a trading update due around this time? It's normally around the end of January. |
The app has over 100,000 downloads from the google play store.. I agree it could be huge... |
It has gained traction and as I e said before I would like details around the subscription service and hopefully the founders do wish to stay on and build the company many up. |
In 2020 APH paid $110m for the menopause supplement Amberen:
APH quickly lost control of the product and wrote down a good chunk of the cost. When they bought it, the turnover was c.$27m; in 2024 it's probably c.$13m.
Health & Her looks like a superb brand that is on it and has plenty of space to grow. Probably the most interesting acquisition VLG has made since listing.
Can it help them get on an earnings upgrade cycle? |
I've contacted Venture Life this morning and have been told the FY24 trading update should be released early next week.
Also H & H back in stock on Amazon. |
H+h out of stock on Amazon this morning. |
Anyone looking to acquire Venture Life would need to tap on Slater's door.
Maybe he sees this as a strategic asset and a capital event would provide the ideal exit. |
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