Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[apad] 13/5/2020 14:30

"Powell says the Federal Reserve is not considering negative interest rates"

That's a certainty then 😊

You were correct about SPX this morning, red. £100 a share soon!

apad

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 13/5/2020 12:55

Anyway off to put some more paint on the new shops walls.
Two quotes booked for this afternoon too :)

All this makes one sharpen one's pencil.

Sorry for clogging up the board I'll stop now.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 13/5/2020 12:36

Well the self employed furlough scheme hasn't got off to a good start.
Said my Mrs can get £1300 in total for three months.

One years profit spread over three years.
One year profit
One year starting out
One year employed marked as zero.

I think they've pressed go and the system isn't ready.

They've divided the one years earnings by three years instead of multiplying the earning buy three to give an average.

You REALLY can not make this stuff up. Now the site has crashed.

Mumma mia!!

:(

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 13/5/2020 11:58

Oh Red. When I met my first UK 'CEO' I nearly laughed my head off. Think he was boss of maybe three or four people.

Mr Big :)

[apad] 13/5/2020 11:44

Those are the reasons I bought TM17 in the first place, particularly the founder. I also like the business model.
apad

[redartbmud] 13/5/2020 11:43

Thought for the day.

When did the job title change, from Managing Director to Chief Executive Officer?
Does it mean that the person is eminently more qualified to do the job than was the case previuosly?
Did the annual 150% of basic salary bonus, for just doing the job, plus 25% of salary annual pension scheme, plus hundreds of thousands of share options, priced at next to nothing, come as a result of the change in job title, or before?

Puzzled from Poole.

red

[hydrus] 13/5/2020 11:41

Nightmare! One other factor: A general sense that the opportunity for the business is increasing Eg BOO/ASOS - survivor advantage

[apad] 13/5/2020 11:37

Fat finger.
Just sold a chunk of TSTL instead of buying.
apad

[hydrus] 13/5/2020 11:36

Fair enough APAD. I'm not sure I fully understand TM17. But then again I'm not sure I fully understand any business.I just go on various factors such as:High revenue growthGood track record Founder CEO with good stake stillHigh quality financial metrics Non cyclical business If I try understand their markets etc I'll end up with a little knowledge and a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

[redartbmud] 13/5/2020 11:16

H

There is a little story relating to the early 1970's.
I worked for an industrial group, as a management accountant.
Business was dire, and we had a couple of rounds of redundancy.
One day, we were called in. to be told of major job cuts.
We all immediately decamped to a large production area, where all of the staff and workers were already assembled, to be addressed by the MD.
I was positioned at the back, by the exit.
As he spoke, 4 or 5 people were larking around near me, and taking no notice.
When he concluded, and they were told to leave the building, one of the group turned around to a workmate to ask what had been said.

The guy gave him a dirty look and said: "You have just lost your job!"

Hey ho....

red

[hydrus] 13/5/2020 11:02

APAD are you in TM17 now btw?

[redartbmud] 13/5/2020 10:42

H

I think that you are right.
Most people must now be struggling with life balance.
If you are stood down from work, your whole routine is toast, and working from home has it's challenges.
the ancients like me are kept away from shops, and can only roam around a bit.
In the end perspective is lost.
There was a lot of DIY being done in the early days. That flurry of activity has dried up.
Getting to grips with news and specifically market news and data has become colourless. The script is the same each day, only names and numbers change, and numbers cannot be relied upon or sensibly interpreted. Rational decision making is a serious challenge.

I don't think it can go on for much longer, without a major change in circumstances, even if many more 000's die as a result.

red

red

[hydrus] 13/5/2020 10:34

'I reckon there's something in the argument that currency and .gov debt are so frightening that stocks are the only safe place to be and that US stocks are the safest and that 5 US stocks are the safest place of all.'I completely agree APAD - most people seem bewildered that stock markets are as high as they are but with continued low interest rates, huge government support, high debt, devalued currencies it seems fairly obvious to me. After the last crisis high quality assets soared in value and I think relative to cash and most other assets the same will happen again. I hold about 30% portfolio directly in US stocks. MSFT and AMZN as the largest holdings. TM17, TSTL, BVXP, BOO make up large part of the rest.

[apad] 13/5/2020 10:18

😊 Hydrus.

You mostly in US shares?

I reckon there's something in the argument that currency and .gov debt are so frightening that stocks are the only safe place to be and that US stocks are the safest and that 5 US stocks are the safest place of all.

I watch the CNBC lunchtime report with amazement. Why would anyone buy Boeing, in the UK RR? It truly must be because the alternatives are worse!

apad

[hydrus] 13/5/2020 10:04

The TM17 thread has turned into a simple minded endless debate about what the share price is going to do each day. It's the equivalent of a bunch of morons watching a washing machine spin.Anyway after adding ADBE I can't see making any further changes to my portfolio, unless markets fall quite a bit. For the first time for ages I'm very happy with all my holdings. I think also I'd mainly add to existing holdings if that happened, although I'd be tempted with COLO B if it fell a good 30%, but probably unlikely. Enjoying gardening more than stock market stuff currently ;)

[apad] 13/5/2020 09:25

Bought a few more TSTL at 508p.

apad

[apad] 13/5/2020 09:14

Did the same, red.
SPX a presence on US ETFs.

RSW back up to its trading range regardless of bad results and the market markdown today.

An Idiot's Guide to Algorithms would make a good little book. Taking their brainless behaviour into account has been very useful, but I don't understand them well enough. They now seem to be able to override bad news! Bamboo2's delight.

Notion 1
Algos use what has just happened to anticipate what will next happen. So, they confer regularity and stability to trading.

Notion 2
?

apad

[redartbmud] 13/5/2020 08:59

APAD

Looked at the trades in Spx, early on.
Lots of algos trades for just a handful of shares, each trade.
There were lots at 9220p, at one point. That would have been a good buy.

red

[redartbmud] 13/5/2020 08:56

Strange world.
I could now buy a house next door to fawlty Towers, and move in.
I can drive all the way to the beach, a minute down the road, and exercise.

I cannot drive to Fawlty Towers to stay. Oh no. I would be fined and sent back.
I shouldn't even visit to check things over.

Trying to wrap my head around that one.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 13/5/2020 08:09

Revenue decline usually has a disproportionate effect on profit to the negative.

Generalisation:
100m usual turnover = profits 20m
80m bad year = profits 5m

20% less turnover could equal 75% less profits.

This is why I'm really liking software companies at the moment. Once they roll out their SaaS their fixed costs could remain almost the same.