Venture Life Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 07/5/2020 10:10

If dividends are pegged to bank base rates and therefore payouts more modest, it does create additional free cash flow for investment in the business. wisely spent, it should increase year on year returns in the form of growth and a higher share price.

How many CEO's are capable?

The principle remains unchanged. Put your money on the nose of the horse with the sheepskin noseband.

red

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 07/5/2020 10:00

Ftse mega caps have been shackled by divideds for ages. Could be good long term.

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 07/5/2020 09:59

You know Apad lives buffett really 👍👍

[hydrus] 07/5/2020 09:58

APAD I think the discourse has changed because of the acceleration in the demise of the high street. Whilst there may be more unemployment resulting in downward pressure on disposable income in coming months/years, I believe that will be more than offset by the market share BOO and ASOS will take. BOO is a better quality company but ASOS sells other brands. Therefore as department stores and brand specific shops close my bet is that they will gravitate to a one stop shop online where they can buy most brands - that's ASOS. That's why I think ASOS will do well also - I still think BOO will do better though because of higher margins (own brands only) and excellent leadership.

[lauders] 07/5/2020 09:52

Nice news from one of my comparison selections today. Just hope that everything they are working on really benefits the patients praying that some help with their condition will eventually be found. I know of one young chap whose eyesight is progressively getting worse each year and he doesn't like to walk in dimly lit areas. RENE has a few irons in the fire for a few serious conditions.

On a lighter note:

What they don't want is the likes of me with a twenty year old Honda!

Not trying to emulate Warren Buffett and stick with the same house/car even though you can afford the best are you APAD? ;-)

[apad] 07/5/2020 09:43

Agree with the Adam/red debate. Terry Smith has to do it with 'brand' megacaps. We can do it with the likes of BREE. A huge advantage. HLMA is a great example of the argument - it can always find better things to do with cash than pay large divis. But they do increase the divi year on year, so doing nothing also works if one doesn't need the income.

Strange how the BOO discourse changed after the last results, Hydrus. The big issue for me is that PLT is not stealing BooHoo's customers - now shown over a couple of results.
BOO is now 26% of Stairway.
I've traded a few times and the net cost is 55p. The story hasn't changed through all the share price variations and I have no reason to want to reduce this proportion.

apad

[hydrus] 07/5/2020 09:15

ASOS and BOO tearing ahead as thought they might - every news report of high street clothes shops closing down helps them.

[redartbmud] 07/5/2020 09:04

Adam

Absolutely.
I have a large holding in Breedon. They have been in growth mode, and payment of a dividend has not been on the agenda. I have traded a few annually, mainly to generate a 'dividend' which I have taken as a 'scrip', adding to my holding.

If you are going to adopt this policy, for the big caps, you need to consider the levels of growth in the business, and it's size. Yes, the shares are liquid, but the larger holders will find it difficult to trade sufficient numbers to generate equivalent dividend income, where the shares trade in a relatively tight range for a relatively long period. This could happen to the companies which have been more bond proxies, pottering along serenely on a calm ocean, never making waves. Not all businesses can grow at 4, 5 or 6% annually to create that 'dividend' opportunity. The holders would all be in the same boat, and if they all try to jump at the same time, they just depress the share price, defeating the object.
PI's may have a better chance, but why trade in the backwater that will only provide a few crumbs, where other tables offer much greater opportunities.
If they underperform, against market expectations, the share price declines further, resukting in a capital loss that far outweighs any 'dividend' trade.

red

[adamb1978] 07/5/2020 08:44

One obvious point about dividends is that, aside from tax treatment, they dont impact the value of a company. If a company doesnt pay a dividend, its equity value remains higher and you sell a few % of the company to represent the dividend which you would have earned

[redartbmud] 07/5/2020 08:40

APAD

Income is now a vexted question.
The sock market has been a big source of income that filters out to the general population both directly and indirectly, in ways that many do not know about or undertand.
The fallout will have a big impact on incomes and money supply. It can only result in lower consumption, which hits the revenues of companies. The whole scenario moves down a notch as growth slows.
This isn't only UK, it is worldwide.

I am more pessinistic than A. Bailey Esq.

red

[apad] 07/5/2020 08:35

Whilst I get great enjoyment from the TESLA story, attrader, I agree with Big7 that car makers are best avoided. There is massive global over production capacity (we used to park overproduction on Castle Bromwich airport). The makers are desperate to keep demand going - rental, electric vehicles.
What they don't want is the likes of me with a twenty year old Honda!

The suppliers are another matter. AB Dynamics and Renishaw are great examples of innovative companies that make money out of cars.

apad

[attrader] 07/5/2020 08:25

Net promoter score of 96! My neighbour switching his Porsche to Tesla prompted the research. Hope to get better understanding of this sector at some point.

[apad] 07/5/2020 08:23

Exxon benefitting and RDSB suffering from divi cut. Now they move together with the oil price. Cars on the move from now on, I reckon.

Sosandar want me to buy floral frocks this evening. Not much chance of that but no way to find out if they are selling them.

red, with interest rates so low for so long wasn't it inevitable that high company dividends would be cut? Coronavirus an excellent coat peg. Say, RDSB at 4% sustainable, where else do the income funds go - aren't they stuck? More governments are going to buy companies. So will there be a structural difference or will it be a matter of scale? I guess the argument that long-term, income shares are not good investments becomes very much stronger (Terry Smith a major proponent).

Agonising over top-slicing RSW today.

apad

[big7ime] 07/5/2020 07:54

I’m with you attrader, all I know is that it takes a load of money and it’s a sector I avoid. My mate has a Tesla and it is bloody impressive though

[redartbmud] 07/5/2020 07:52

Interesting Bt, results today.

Final dividend suspended for 2019/20 and all dividends for 2020/21 to create capacity for value-enhancing investments and managing confidently through the Covid-19 crisis; expect to resume dividends in 2021/22 at an annual rate of 7.7 pence per share.

The 7.7p = 50% of the current dividend!!
The fallout from Covid will see s significant number of big caps rebase their dividends more in line with current base rates.
Income funds, pension funds and high yield investors will be caught between a rock and a hard place - as I have predicted previously.
This changes the demographics of the market, and a big shift in portfolios.

red

[discodave4] 07/5/2020 01:07

"This will be a bit of a shock to some given the company talked about no need to raise capital on its recent conference call, although the bulls (which we agree with) will say this essentially rips the bandaid off and takes the doomsday cash crunch scenario some predicted down the road now off the table,"Charlie Munger: "Humility means that you know the edge of your own competency and you aren't arrogantly stepping over the boundary."

[apad] 06/5/2020 20:44

"Tesla is raising $2 billion in fresh funding — 15 days after Elon Musk said the company didn't need to. Tesla is seeking to raise up to $2 billion in fresh funding through a new stock offering, it said Thursday. Feb 13, 2020"

Fascinating & Amazing 😊

BTW, attrader, I did see some comment about sales and when they are booked. Can't remember the details.

I don't have the background to engage sensibly in debates about printing money, red, but I do note that none of the ivory tower economists predicted this negative interest rate era. And they do have the background. 😊

apad

[attrader] 06/5/2020 20:35

I dont think i know anything about car manufacturing so will stay out ..

[attrader] 06/5/2020 20:33

Fair point on batteries as other manufacturers are delaying target, scaling down on production. No one knows why, some people citing battery bottlenecks.

Apparently, Tesla has bought critical suppliers and tasked them to prioritise Tesla over others .




hxxps://www.wheelsjoint.com/mark-spiegel-fund-in-deep-water-after-shorting-tesla-stock/

[thelongandtheshortandthetall] 06/5/2020 20:31

Tesla has 'it' what ever 'it' is.
Musk has 'it' too.
Spacex with it's rockets landing back on their launch pads has 'it'.
The bright red roadster sapcex launched into space is definitely 'it'.

Say no more.

Fever tree has 'it' too.

Apple has 'it'.

Some brands capture something cool. its that something cool that propels them. Even countries bow to the something cool. People want to be attached to something cool and their willing to pay.

[redartbmud] 06/5/2020 20:31

APAD

Printing money, and one sided book entries, creating money to buy your own debt.
They have been writing about such wizardry for centuries.
I vaguely remember the guy - hos name was Merlin.

red

[redartbmud] 06/5/2020 20:28

DD4

Shame, you are the foil for APAD's "excesses".

Remember Delorean?

red

[discodave4] 06/5/2020 19:51

Haven't looked in here for about 3 years or so, see it hasn't changed, APAD still ranting about TSLA......will be another 3 years or so before I look in again me thinks.In April 2016, APAD argued constantly with me about TSLA, wouldn't accept my opinion, on this or anything tbh, so I stopped posting. TSLA was 300 then, it's now over 700 and according to APAD it only has 1 year left before it "fails":DiscoDave4 - 09 Apr 2016 - 10:24:09 - 4986 of 34401 ValueGrowth Investing - VLGAPAD"TESLA It's not the design or the company valuation, it's just that celebrities cannot waive technical limitations. The company will fail in the next five years."Think your completely wrong - they have revolutionised lithium-ion battery technology for electric cars, not even GM, or any other car manufacturer could match their advancements in this area, they have patented over 500 items. They are bringing affordable "branded" and desirable electric cars to the market. They will be around for a long long time IMV, Tesla is not just Musk.DD

[attrader] 06/5/2020 18:00

That is what i am looking for APAD. Trying to get my head around why Tesla is selling far more cars than any other carmarker.



Volwagen factory has a lot more robots & automation than Tesla factory. I think they can churn out at scale. But ID3 will only be available from mid-20..

[big7ime] 06/5/2020 17:53

Paul doesn’t seem to know anything about macro-economics and how money creation and national debt works