Nervous investors, stop losses, momentum traders who buy when something goes up without researching the company and the behave like a flock of starlings when anybody else sells. But I can't fault the company either. |
Bit confused by price action here. 2 years ago VEL had execution risk with key US contract with GKN Aerospace only just signed. Now, albeit with some delays, this is fully bedded in, costs sunk and revenues flowing.
IMV there is much smaller business risk and VEL only have to process and deliver the product to generate the $100M revenue contracted over 5 years meaning (and without gaining any extra customers), the financial position will greatly improve.
In the meantime the aerospace industry has massive tailwinds at present (oops!) so demand should be good.
The share price 2 years ago was as high as 60p ....today we languish at 26p whilst the company and industry is so much better placed now and broker targets are at 60p.
Canaccord reported in Jan after the finals: If Velocity hits its five-year target of £100m revenues and a 10% EBITDA margin by 2028, our published discounted sensitivity analysis suggests blue-sky upside potential of ~4x to 122p at 10x EV/EBITDA.
Am I missing something? |
The Amati AIM VCT released their January factsheet this morning - in it they note:
"Velocity Composites, who supply composite material kits to the global aviation industry, progressed, reporting revenue growth of 40% and positive adjusted EBITDA for 2024. The company now looks well placed to benefit from strong demand from both the civil and defence aerospace sectors." |
VEL gets a mention in this interview with Gervais Williams of Premier Miton. Nice to see he is confident in the future. |
I'm not keen on tanks, one day I hope we wont need either. |
Not keen on military drones |
 I have now seen the investor meet presentations and believe the company is finally on the road to delivering on promises made at floatation in 2017 at 85p. I would say we are at inflexion point on financial results with normal metrics like PE coming into view. The share price and risk profile have been going in opposite directions for two years and the market has not woken up to the fact that we have a subcontractor with solid long term contracts with the two largest civil western airline suppliers, VEL is operating in two continents and market cap is only £17ml at 30pCovid impacted the industry more than other sectors and they still referred to it in the presentation, however they are now back on track and had a good 2024 despite disruption at Boeing The new finance director has tightened up controls with margins improving and metrics like debtor days down substantially plus stock levels declining. There is no need for further major capital expenditure until turnover hits 60ml. They are currently cash neutral and will go cash positive as 2025 progresses. Both Boeing and Airbus plan increased production this year and now military is on the horizon , eg drones. |
That estimate looks very conservative given they did 23ml in 2024 despite Boeing problems and with American contract only kicking off during the year. |
Yep, encouraging results and outlook.
Canaccord retain their Buy and 60p target.
They forecast £27m sales, £1.7m EBITDA and a closing cash pile of £1.2m this year. |
Dis gud
Me laak |
Looks good to me. Underlying business should be flying in 2025....and VEL have been passing through inflation cost increases hence all on track for margins and ROCE |
Looks good to me. Should be going higher as just broken into profit and the outlook looks promising.
Overview
This has been another year of double-digit growth for Velocity. We have weathered the production challenges facing the global aerospace industry, and we are entering 2025 in a healthy position to support customers as they look to ramp up production. The migration to composite materials in newer aircraft models continues, as OEM's focus on improved sustainability, as well as an expected increase in Western defence expenditure, will continue to result in more opportunities for Velocity.
Revenue was up 40% to £23.0m (FY23: £16.4m), driven by growing US sales, and we had a positive adjusted EBITDA of £0.4m, the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic (FY23: loss £1.6m). The Group has maintained a healthy cash and liquidity position with cash-inflows from operating activities of £0.4m (FY23: outflows of £1.8m). We anticipate further growth in FY25 and beyond, as higher monthly production rates are expected in the global aerospace industry. |
I watched Bank of Dave again yesterday after a few years. Based in Burnley, the story of Dave, a successful businessman, and his efforts to get a banking license against the hurdles imposed by the City mafia protectionists. A good yarn, probably the only banking presence in Burnley these days if the rest of the country is any measure. Maybe a bit small for VEL though. |
Good volume today again. Does someone know something? |
Took a few between 20 and 25p but in the current market cashed in today at 30.78p. No reflection on the company and will keep watching for another entry. |
Couple of chunky delayed buys come through... Do they know something? |
I'm wary of "flash in the pan" like mid-December. |
Couldn't be the much vaunted second major contract that seems to have disappeared into the ether could it?Of course not as this would be blatant insider dealing.Someone trying to hide their big order by buying in 5k tranches?No obvious reason for such a jump as a tip would surely not cause such a significant rise particularly as the tip has apparently not revealed anything new. |
 Thank you Napoleon 14th and WJCCGHCC...got to key that carefully..wonder what it means :-)
That is some move for a tip.
They don't normally move that rapid. That is a takeover like spike - instant and rapid. So yeah, the market makers caught abit off guard here. I'm sure the phone will be going to find some sellers to get everyone involved.
That 30p mark is clearly key - short term view. Sometimes the tip buying dries up and the market makers find shares and they gradually move it back down. It takes alot in this market to really get a price shifting. Clearly fundamental delivery results in longer term value.
I don't remember Mr Watson-Mitchell being a big market mover when the articles hit on Master Investor. Joanne Hart seems to cause big surges in buying. Simon Thompson and Robbie Burns used to, but their effect has faded with market sentiment.
Alot are moving to Substack. Paul Scott is doing well and monetising....changing times and trends eh.
Shame it wasn't a material bit of news. Always hoping a spike like that is a result of something more corporate.
Get quite intrigued with an unusual spike like that, but never mind.
Onwards!
All imo
DYOR |
This, and maybe a stock shortage, could be the reson why... Vol thru' the roof...
I was thinking of buying, but is this a spike like last December?
Fundamentally the note is a repeat of previous analysis featured here.
hxxps://masterinvestoruk.substack.com/p/velocity-composites-a-steal-ahead?utm_campaign=email-post&r=l7rve&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email |
After decades of research sphere lol |
lol Volsung
You have worked out the magic recipe for stock market success ha
Good on you!
Anybody have any news? Just missed that bid move in TIG. Don't want to sell if there is material news about
Price is now 30-33p. Not showing that price on the monitor yet as it is in the auction |
For the last week or so I have only been buying stocks starting with the letter ‘v’
So far so good with VCP,VLX, VIC and of course VEL. |
Unsure. Have a few spiking today.
Traded this on the last move and bought a few back on this little surge, but didn't think it was going to be this much of a move higher.
Is it an illiquid move where all market players aren't involved (and they have to find some sellers) or has someone picked up some monster blocks in the background with delayed prints to hit or a news leak?
Bid-offer is 29-31p at the moment and the offer is closed to buying, as per price incremental price points each penny down. It is 32p to buy right now.
I'm not on social media or Telegrams or other forums so don't know if it is a tip either.
But still, nice to see some pops higher about.
All imo
DYOR
10:53 Market makers are still moving higher. Odd move. Any company experts about here? |
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