Velocity Composites Share Discussion Threads

[melton john] 18/1/2025 13:32

I watched Bank of Dave again yesterday after a few years. Based in Burnley, the story of Dave, a successful businessman, and his efforts to get a banking license against the hurdles imposed by the City mafia protectionists. A good yarn, probably the only banking presence in Burnley these days if the rest of the country is any measure. Maybe a bit small for VEL though.

[cyberbub] 08/1/2025 11:02

Good volume today again. Does someone know something?

[melody9999] 07/1/2025 23:50

Took a few between 20 and 25p but in the current market cashed in today at 30.78p. No reflection on the company and will keep watching for another entry.

[cyberbub] 07/1/2025 13:38

Couple of chunky delayed buys come through... Do they know something?

[napoleon 14th] 07/1/2025 12:48

I'm wary of "flash in the pan" like mid-December.

[husbod] 07/1/2025 11:41

Couldn't be the much vaunted second major contract that seems to have disappeared into the ether could it?Of course not as this would be blatant insider dealing.Someone trying to hide their big order by buying in 5k tranches?No obvious reason for such a jump as a tip would surely not cause such a significant rise particularly as the tip has apparently not revealed anything new.

[sphere25] 07/1/2025 11:26

Thank you Napoleon 14th and WJCCGHCC...got to key that carefully..wonder what it means :-)

That is some move for a tip.

They don't normally move that rapid. That is a takeover like spike - instant and rapid. So yeah, the market makers caught abit off guard here. I'm sure the phone will be going to find some sellers to get everyone involved.

That 30p mark is clearly key - short term view. Sometimes the tip buying dries up and the market makers find shares and they gradually move it back down. It takes alot in this market to really get a price shifting. Clearly fundamental delivery results in longer term value.

I don't remember Mr Watson-Mitchell being a big market mover when the articles hit on Master Investor. Joanne Hart seems to cause big surges in buying. Simon Thompson and Robbie Burns used to, but their effect has faded with market sentiment.

Alot are moving to Substack. Paul Scott is doing well and monetising....changing times and trends eh.


Shame it wasn't a material bit of news. Always hoping a spike like that is a result of something more corporate.

Get quite intrigued with an unusual spike like that, but never mind.

Onwards!

All imo
DYOR

[napoleon 14th] 07/1/2025 11:01

This, and maybe a stock shortage, could be the reson why... Vol thru' the roof...
I was thinking of buying, but is this a spike like last December?
Fundamentally the note is a repeat of previous analysis featured here.

hxxps://masterinvestoruk.substack.com/p/velocity-composites-a-steal-ahead?utm_campaign=email-post&r=l7rve&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

[volsung] 07/1/2025 10:55

After decades of research sphere lol

[sphere25] 07/1/2025 10:54

lol Volsung

You have worked out the magic recipe for stock market success ha

Good on you!

Anybody have any news? Just missed that bid move in TIG. Don't want to sell if there is material news about

Price is now 30-33p. Not showing that price on the monitor yet as it is in the auction

[volsung] 07/1/2025 10:53

For the last week or so I have only been buying stocks starting with the letter ‘v’
So far so good with VCP,VLX, VIC and of course VEL.

[sphere25] 07/1/2025 10:47

Unsure. Have a few spiking today.

Traded this on the last move and bought a few back on this little surge, but didn't think it was going to be this much of a move higher.

Is it an illiquid move where all market players aren't involved (and they have to find some sellers) or has someone picked up some monster blocks in the background with delayed prints to hit or a news leak?

Bid-offer is 29-31p at the moment and the offer is closed to buying, as per price incremental price points each penny down. It is 32p to buy right now.

I'm not on social media or Telegrams or other forums so don't know if it is a tip either.

But still, nice to see some pops higher about.


All imo
DYOR

10:53 Market makers are still moving higher. Odd move. Any company experts about here?

[melody9999] 07/1/2025 10:37

errr - whats going on here anyone?

[cyberbub] 02/1/2025 16:53

Good stuff!

[volsung] 02/1/2025 16:12

I just bought some more
Av now 28p or so

[cyberbub] 24/12/2024 16:20

Nice little delayed buy to round off the half-day .. happy Christmas all!

[gopher] 19/12/2024 17:35

The company has been executing reasonably well, in these markets patience is needed to await results. If they are doing 100ml and 10ml ebitda in 3 years time then 15ml market cap is derisory unless Rachel Reeves has destroyed the economy.

[cyberbub] 19/12/2024 15:03

Looks like I was over optimistic LOL

[cyberbub] 16/12/2024 09:11

Yes, going well so far today. I reckon upper 30s or even 40 short term before a pause. Could go substantially higher in 2025 IMO, if they announce a couple of big new ordersm

[volsung] 16/12/2024 09:08

Bought a few of these at 29p on Friday.
Looks like an interesting recovery play

[carlo sartori] 13/12/2024 13:26

THanks for posting the Cannacord commentary Rivaldo.

Carlo

[cyberbub] 13/12/2024 12:34

Haha funnily I had typed my post before reading the broker report in the previous post!! Snap, great minds think alike LOL

[cyberbub] 13/12/2024 12:32

Rivaldo I think upper 30s in the coming weeks seems more reasonable to me than Zak's target. Remember where the CFO bought. I can see possibly £2m profit next year as the big US contract already issued ramps up, and they claim to have £200m in their sales pipeline. So by next Xmas VEL could be at 50p+ IMO. Cash seems tight at first look, but the facilities they have in place should see them through with no need for equity. By 2026 they will have paid off the COVID loan as well, so that will be less outgoings...All IMO of course, GLA

[rivaldo] 13/12/2024 11:44

Canaccord say Buy with a 60p target price - they summarise:

"Strong US growth coming through

Canaccord Genuity view Revenues up 40% in FY24E with a £0.1m EBITDA beat Today's FY24 trading update for the year to 31 October is ahead of revised guidance, with Velocity expecting to report revenue growth of 40% y/y to £23.0m (CGe: £22.8m) and an EBITDA result of £0.4m (CGe: £0.3m). This represents both a strong top-line performance and a return to EBITDA profitability as US production volumes continued to ramp up, input costs were passed on to improve gross margins and operational efficiencies were realised. A £0.7m net cash position is better than our expectation of £0.4m net debt, reflecting a neutral working capital position y/y, with balance sheet liquidity in a healthy position to support future growth.

Looking ahead to FY25 we anticipate final sign-off on Block 4 of the US contract (worth ~$8m per annum) could be achieved in H1 to complete the customer onboarding process, enabling US production and revenues to build towards full run-rate levels.

Our unchanged FY25E estimates anticipate revenue growth of 17% to £27.0m underpinned by contracted US volumes and record customer order backlogs, while EBITDA climbs >4x to £1.7m as operational gearing benefits are realised. We also assume an inflection to positive free cash generation to further strengthen the group's net cash position. Beyond this, a new business pipeline worth £200m in a growing composite market continues to provide blue-sky upside as Velocity targets £100m of revenues and a 10% EBITDA margin by 2028. We maintain BUY with a 60p EV/Sales derived target price."

"Shares look materially undervalued

We think EV/Sales is appropriate as Velocity scales up its revenues and sustainably builds EBITDA margin towards its 10% target. With the shares trading on a 2025E EV/Sales of just 0.4x, we value Velocity at 60p/share based on a 1.1x multiple which is a 30% discount to peer average. This suggests upside of nearly 3x from the current 21.5p share price. If Velocity hits its five-year target of £100m revenues and a 10% EBITDA margin by 2028, our discounted sensitivity analysis suggests blue-sky upside potential of ~6x to 122p at 10x EV/EBITDA."