Velocity Composites Share Discussion Threads

[melton john] 12/12/2024 08:23

Put a limit order in before open and got some at 24p.

[sidam] 12/12/2024 08:09

Can only access one piece of research. Project breakeven for current year, but cash inflow so net cash of £1.2m. Target 60p. Looks like we have passed the bottom.

[lauders] 12/12/2024 07:46

Looks promising. 2025 will hopefully be a better year here as the airline manufacturing companies fortunes, and hence VEL's, improve!

[lauders] 30/11/2024 01:24

My mini top-up at 21p the other day seems to be working at the moment. Let's hope the new trajectory is maintained!

[tomtrudgian] 27/11/2024 16:40

You say Melody9999, that VEL are in a long term industry. That is rather obviously true, and logically the company should be viewed over a multi year scenario. Yes, VEL’s share price has, like many others, been affected greatly by 2024’s diverse and quite extraordinary geopolitical events throughout Asia, Europe and the USA.

However why should VEL have paid for an earlier RNS reply? Was it not natural for the CEO to sell such a trivial part of his shareholding, after so many years without a dividend?

I have found it difficult to get a quote to buy (or sell) substantial amounts of VEL shares until very recently. Perhaps others may enlighten me.

VEL’s RNS Trading Update was long ago announced for 12 Dec.

Tom Trudgian

[daniel levi bmd] 27/11/2024 13:02

Great read

FYI

ADVFN SHAREHOLDER ACTION GROUP? hxxps://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/2024/11/27/advfn-shareholder-action-group/

Dan
x

[husbod] 27/11/2024 13:01

Presumably it reflects firstly the Boeing problems and how this might affect outsourcing generally. Plus this Boeing contract seems to be taking longer to get onto our bottom line than we all expected.If I weren't already holding a shedload I'd probably look at the current share price as an opportunity to top up.

[melody9999] 26/11/2024 19:36

VEL are in a long term industry. But the share price has halved in 2 months and that just does not make sense because the company has not reported any change - positive or negative - in that time period.

[gopher] 26/11/2024 19:00

My reason to hold would be the market cap is only £10ml which suggests a dilutive fund raise but I don't believe the company is in trouble.

[cooper30] 26/11/2024 17:08

Also well in the red here but bought some more today in order to average down.
Website unusually shows that a trading update is due on 12th December (under financial calendar)

[gopher] 26/11/2024 16:37

I'm well down here, I checked and no RNS news expected until January. I noticed in 2023 they reported results at the lower end of directors guidance and I would expect the same in 2024 given the Boeing strike. I would hope they are at least cash generative but much depends on outlook statement. Difficult share to judge, I thought the FD purchase was an excellent sign but this was undone by subsequent director share sale.

[aneurysm] 26/11/2024 14:16

This share price has been down here before and always bounced back. But this time they have infrastructure in place to really grow and are about to break profit for the 1st time since COVID. A delay of profits due to ongoing supply chain issues, doesn't warrant a 60% reduction in share price in my opinion. Im adding every month since it dipped below 25p.

[melton john] 26/11/2024 13:37

JPMorgan give £2 per share upside on GKN Aerospace owner MRO melrose Industries good read across to VEL imho.

[melton john] 26/11/2024 12:39

I'm up to my neck in them,last buy at 30p. Will hold off until trend starts upwards. My main concerns would be cash flow, working capital and worry of a fund raise. Their balance sheet at the interim shows a regular reduction of long term debt (excluding lease obligations) from max 2M in 21 to .719M so their credit rating at their bank should be fine.
Current assets were 7.8M including cash of nearly 1.8M whereas current liabilities were 4.46M. The cash was reduced by -1.39M over the period with the above 1.8M remaining, so its going to be tight but I hope a loan will be preferred by the directors who will want to avoid dilution.
I must say that I'm not an accountant and just reading it how I see it, discussion welcome. I note that no material change from the september trading update has been published although the optics of the CEO's close associate's first share sale aren't great. I assume a close relative wanted out.

[lauders] 26/11/2024 11:23

Wow.... VEL is really unloved. Just added a very small number to the long term portfolio. Seems overdone unless some unexpected bad news is on the way. Same over at HVO. Seems some small caps are taking a beating at present.

[aneurysm] 31/10/2024 09:17

Absolutely, this is now an absolute bargain for me.for the sake of a delay, not the fault of Velocity, just the supply chain issues, this is now buy buy buy for me.

[melody9999] 31/10/2024 08:44

I've taken a few again. Unusually I managed to sell at the top at 45p a few months ago.... The last TU 180924 signalled 'short term delays' caused by the customer which will impact the supplying of VEL kits, and so revenue, rather than anything more significant. Meanwhile FD buying.

So with the budget out of the way and the share price some 40% lower, I think the risk is now skewed firmly to the upside. Just my view!

[tomtrudgian] 19/10/2024 10:03

Thanks gopher. Personally I just cannot get my head around the Boeing strike, now in its 6th week. Both sides resemble headless chickens, but I assume it will be concluded fairly soon. Not without cost to both Boeing and the workforce, and to both side’s pride no doubt.

I can see cash flow loss to Velocity, but not to their profit. They appear to have ample vacuum packed storage facilities for continued production, which we are told may be in stronger demand by H2 2025.

A few different different points which may be worth discussing:
1/ The UK budget may well depress UK share prices, of labour intensive companies in particular.
2/ The current stamp duty and Inheritance Tax advantages of AIM shares may be withdrawn or curtailed in the budget. That appears to me to be a racing certainty.
3/ UK Companies with operations in the USA may be advantaged by a Trump presidential win.

[gopher] 18/10/2024 14:57

It's logical to think that the finance director is in the best position to judge the contracts impact on the balance sheet and must also have visibility of the orders pipeline. What's not logical is the decline in the share price sinceI don't normally go for micro caps but have made an exception here.

[tomtrudgian] 17/10/2024 08:55

Yes gopher, the new CFO has already amassed 40,000 shares now. A good sign. Velocity’s products will not deteriorate or depreciate in store so their sales have just been pushed to 2025. That will simply affect the 24 and 25 revenues (down and up respectively) but the Boeing strike is not logically a reason for the share price fall.

[melton john] 16/10/2024 10:56

All my chart indications are shouting "buy me".
Stockopedia shows you can sell 14000 against buy 8000 at the quoted price which is always a good sign that the MM's want to buy. Normal market size is 3000

[gopher] 16/10/2024 10:32

There must be some value as CFO has recently bought and well below the price they spiked after award of US contract 2 years ago. That came out of nowhere and it would be no surprise to see similar happen again hopefully.

[melton john] 16/10/2024 10:09

Just bought some at 30.45p