Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[diesel] 08/2/2018 13:38

The buyback programme doesn't seem to mandated with buying maximum amount at minimum price, not sure if this will have proved to be worthwhile. Seems to have flagged to the market a management with little better to invest their cash pile.

[popper joe] 08/2/2018 13:38

No, nor could I find the GSK RNS that Rathean mentioned earlier.

[popper joe] 08/2/2018 13:03

We all own a slightly larger percentage of a slightly smaller company!

[gbcol] 08/2/2018 12:54

Just had a quick tot up on buybacks. I make it just short of 11 million shares at about £1 average price to date, over 9m of which has been in last 4 weeks. So £15m limit likely to be used up quite soon and certainly well before May cut off date.

So not sure where that has got us.

[0815exitstrategy] 08/2/2018 12:25

@rathean: sorry i don't see a link which says the us sandoz product is delayed by negative fda feedback. or do i misunderstand here something. my understanding is they still await feedback (which i don't know should be given by the fda)

[polaris] 08/2/2018 11:58

I think the head of the committee looking at this is ex-GSK. I have no links to prove this and you can read what you like into this.

There is a fair point here though. The 'generics' in Europe and RoW are not really generics to me. They are not directly substitutable without training for the patient. It is the assessor job to do this before prescribing the 'generic'. This is down to the different inhaler types for the generic entrants. This muddies the waters wrt generic approvals, IMO. If the FDA requires chemcial equivalence and delivery equivalence to approve generic status then this is damn hard! The problems that Mylan, Hikma and Sandoz are having suggests exactly that.

[cumnor] 08/2/2018 11:31

Hi Paul-thanks for your comments-agree re VEC's IP, esp inhalation device tech and feel mgmt could be doing a lot more to boost the company's fortunes. Poorold, I have no doubt the FDA panelists are big time in the pockets of highest bidders and I hoped Trump's threats re profiteering and opening access to the COPD/Asthma markets would have encouraged them to push generic advair-it is after all well tried and tested. But the physicians on the panels are no different to the docs who do a trial or write a paper, saying what they are told, for any big pharma. Fact.

[rathean] 08/2/2018 11:21

#0815 see #polaris link above. VEC results due in March, I think they'll be positive if not spectacular, still waiting for the bid offer RNS... surely The Times didn't peddle a blatant lie to help the chaps offload their holding at an inflated price? Oh wait, they do it all the time...

[0815exitstrategy] 08/2/2018 11:14

@rathean: do you have a link for this news? thx.

[pooroldboy55] 08/2/2018 10:18

Hi Paul
This all seems a bit strange to me have GSK got some hold over the FDA or is that a comspirtst thought. That's 3 products now on hold, just thinking out loud.
Cheers POB (Martin)

[rathean] 08/2/2018 09:18

Delay in Novartis genetic alternative by FDA, full letter received gives incumbent a while longer yet. See GSK rns.

[pooroldboy55] 08/2/2018 08:46

Hi all be interesting to see how long it takes before we go red today as I write this up 3p.

[polaris] 07/2/2018 22:55

cumnor - i think it is down to a combination of a couple of things. Advair is one as most people, including GSK, expected generic competition to be approved in 2017. The agreement is a combination of manufacturing and IP royalties to the tune of 15% net US sales. There is some previous discussion on that. It's only US market for the generic with Hikma, although 2017 Advair (US not to be mistaken for Seretide, which is name in RoW and accounts for half of the 3.2Bn GBP total sales) revenues were 1.6Bn GBP for GSK.

The second thing is the VEC IP litigation with GSK...again...on the Ellipta series of products (2017 revenues of that series around 1.7Bn GBP with Breo/Relvar becoming blockbuster). The cap on royalties p.a. is 13M GBP, but that is pure bottom line. That is slated to go to court at the end of 2018. According to a link posted recently, if the court rules in favour of VEC then they can award more than the capped 13M p.a. to VEC. GSK assert that the patents no longer hold, whereas VEC assert that patents hold until 2021.

Add the two together and it is quite a hit to the overall bottom line.

Also, Flutiform has stalled with sales in Europe and RoW except Japan. The statement from the BoD to change direction somewhat to concentrate on the low risk IP leverage into a wide range of developments that are relatively quick turnaround (i.e. generics), will take time to bear fruit. In some ways, that stresses the importance of the litigation v GSK as a company like VEC lives and dies with its IP...

Personally, i think the falls are overdone here and will slowly scale back in here, having bought a small number yesterday on the back of the US market falls.

The change of direction will make VEC a more likely candidate for a takeout by a large generics company should they divest some of their current product lines, IMO.

regards,

Paul

[cumnor] 07/2/2018 20:34

Little to do with VEC's sp-advair not that big a deal- esp as more geberic versions to follow and is in the share price plus. Players having a laugh at another impotent, uninspiring CEO frozen in the face of market games whose response is to spend the cash buying more devalued shares but who doesn't seem to be able to sell the significant business case to the market. Little has changed except advair timing or potential. Was VEC all about advair when the share price was £1'80? Will buy at 50p. imo

[jimboyce] 07/2/2018 20:00

I did read that the FDA were reviewing their own timetables for giving decisions. Hopefully this will focus their minds and get cheaper alternatives like advair to market earlier rather than later.

[polaris] 07/2/2018 19:25

Jimboyce - they also expected a generic Advair in H2 2017, which didn't arrive. It's all down to the FDA and their timetable. Mylan and Hikma are in disagreement with FDA over their rejections. Sandoz is still awaiting the outcome of their ANDA, submitted in June 2017. The GDUFA date for that is sometime in the summer, assuming a similar timescale to that Hikma received when they submitted their ANDA. We also know that Hikma expect a resolution with FDA in Q1 2018 - by that i mean a final decision. This could be approve (unlikely) or confirm the need for further trials to prove equivalence. If the latter, then you are looking at 2019. Mylan had a worse decision from FDA and not sure whether they will come back. Sandoz is best placed for now, but who knows what the FDA will say...and when!

[jimboyce] 07/2/2018 19:21

From GSK final results issued today. They anticipate a generic advair in 2018. Please let it be hikma/vectura.Emma Walmsley, Chief Executive Officer, GSK said: "In 2017 GSK delivered encouraging results from across the company with sales growth in each of our three global businesses, an improved Group operating margin, Adjusted EPS growth of 4% (CER) and stronger free cash flow. "We are focused on competing effectively across our current portfolio and delivering three new launches which bring significant benefits to patients: Trelegy Ellipta which provides three medicines in a single inhaler to treat COPD; Juluca, the first 2-drug regimen, once-daily, single pill for HIV, helping to reduce the amount of medicines needed, and Shingrix, our new vaccine which represents a new standard for the prevention of shingles. "Improving our Pharmaceuticals business remains our main priority and we are strengthening our pipeline with a focus on priority assets in two current therapy areas, Respiratory and HIV, and two potential areas, Oncology and Immuno-inflammation. We will provide a further update to investors at Q2 on our plans for R&D. "We continue to make changes across GSK to drive improvements in performance and we have made several new appointments to key leadership positions. "Looking ahead, in 2018 we could see a potential generic version of Advair in the US and our 2018 guidance reflects this. With the sales momentum we anticipate from new and recent launches and focused improvements in operating performance we are increasingly confident in our ability to deliver mid to high single digit growth in Adjusted EPS CAGR (2016-2020 at 2015 CER). "Cash generation also continues to be a key focus with free cash flow for the year improving to GBP3.4 billion. We met our commitment to pay a total dividend of 80p for 2017 and continue to expect to pay 80p for 2018.

[polaris] 07/2/2018 19:19

However, the large share volumes suggest bot trading, as there have been no major holding announcements. The company can poke the major holders to declare their holdings if they suspect that an announcement is being delayed. Otherwise, this is just a typical market trick to churn the share price in the intended direction. Personally, i think it should be illegal but i am only one voice and most volume nowadays is generated by algos!

[polaris] 07/2/2018 19:16

If in closed period that is not allowed, as only price sensitive information can be released to market. You cannot just reiterate. This happened a few years ago for SKP, when the share price was hammered by 25% in closed period pre-results on some rumour about the GSK ellipta sales being weaker than expected. It was all BS and the share price returned to the pre-trading statement price on results day. Nothing the company could do...

[best1467] 07/2/2018 18:40

The statement the management should come out with on the back of major % share drop is that the company continues to trade in line with the last update and they see no reason for the constant decline in the share price.

[polaris] 07/2/2018 17:46

a1ord53 - just wtf! GSK make Advair!!! They expect generic competition to be launched during 2018 - from one or all of Mylan, Hikma and Sandoz. At least read and understand before posting.