Vectura Share Discussion Threads

[peddlers] 31/8/2020 17:32

Andrew, Companies operate with the chance of unknown unknowns materialising on a continous basis. What do we do with an unkown unknown or unkunk (black swan event) ? We try and get the black Swan into the known unknown category. We also balance our threats with opportunity. I'm sure its very possible that a fire or an earthquake could strike at any moment. And although these events would be catastrophic for any company, they are highly unlikely to occur.

[cockneytrader] 31/8/2020 17:16

Andrew, what if anything are your probabilities based on?

[andrew97] 31/8/2020 16:24

I bought a few of these quite recently in the 90s as this is where I attribute fair value. I am in for the long term mainly for the Ellipta development which ,if successful I feel will be the making of the company. Near term there are the lawsuit results and outcome of the Advair submission which I put at 50% on each with a value of 25p each (giving a 25% chance of 50p increase and 25% of zero, on my base in the 90s). There does seem a lot of irrational exuberance at the moment and I expect no significant movement on entering the 250 and no significant 'meat' in the half year report. I note the enthusiastic comments of the CEO but thats what they do-unless having a Ratner moment, I recall the comment by the CEO of Alizyme-were off to the races-who would have thought he meant to the administrators. I guess there is a take out chance which I put at no more than 5% P.A. but if it happens a 50% premium seems reasonable. I was surprised by Consort going last year as I thought a good fit with VEC. Always look at the downside, what could take us back to the 60s, a major fire (happens, look at CHG 2 years ago), a mess up in manufacturing, again it happens (look at OXB in the annual report-still unquantified as far as I can make out), or another 'black swan'. Anyway I shall disappear for a few months but a word of advice, never buy/sell on what is said on boards, never invest more than you can afford to loose and always do your research.

[peddlers] 31/8/2020 14:35

Roll on tomorrow chaps ...!

[peddlers] 29/8/2020 12:45

FTSE Russell, the global index provider, advises of the following indicative changes to the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250, based on data as at Friday 21 August.

Indicative FTSE 250 Additions (in alphabetical order)
•    CMC Markets
•    Diversified Gas & Oil
•    Hipgnosis Songs Fund C *
•    Indivior
•    ITV
•    JPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust
•    Premier Foods
•    Vectura Group

[cockneytrader] 29/8/2020 12:29

Fingers crossed.

hxxps://mondovisione.com/media-and-resources/news/ftse-uk-index-series-indicative-quarterly-review-changes-september-2020/

[peddlers] 29/8/2020 11:50

Yes Agreed. I looked through this in detail during the week and Vectura will almost certainly be propelled into the FTSE 250. I added on Friday as there is only one more day to grasp these shares before the promotion into the bigger league and I didn't want to miss the boat. Its nice to see the analyst forcaste have this way ahead of the current share price. Tueday could be an interesting day for Vectura.

What are your thoughts guys ?

P

[rolo7] 29/8/2020 04:16

Vec will go into fste it's been around 310 place and you need 325 and above for automatic promotion so 15 fste250 companies will need to move above vec by Tuesday night not going to happen! Liquidity of shares traded recently passes test for promotion.

[diesel] 28/8/2020 16:53

Yes I can see it now, a special board meeting at GSK to discuss the possibility of Vec entering the ftse 250.

[gbcol] 28/8/2020 16:51

jimboyce yes £655m would almost certainly get us back in FTSE250. Depends what the other contenders for entry/exit do on Tuesday but I think we could get away with £635m. Any lower than that and it is in the lap of the gods.

It's not the be all and end all getting in and as alexchry said, probably won't lead automatically to a share price surge if we do but I suspect funds have been buying in anticipation of us getting promoted, so failure to get in may see them selling what they have acquired.

Whatever, not long to wait.

[alexchry] 28/8/2020 16:43

A review of stocks joining the FTSE250 in late 2015 said 'It can be seen that, in most cases, the share price rises in the six to ten days before the announcement; following which the price either trades flat or falls back'.

[jimboyce] 28/8/2020 16:41

Is Market Cap of GBP 655 going to take us into FTSE 250?

[a1ord53] 28/8/2020 16:33

Imo GSK will not let Vec to entry FTSE 250
GSK in case of loosing appeal will buy Vectura and its not in their interest to let Vec share price go up !
Hikma also may look to buy Vectura if Advair will approved and GSK will lose . To buy Vectura with a lot of cash not bed for Hikma - may be ?!

[gbcol] 28/8/2020 15:43

There is currently a circa £170m difference between the automatic entry level into FTSE250 (around £620m MCAP) and the automatic exit level from it(£450m). So if we can get in we should be secure barring any major fall in share price - which of course we have seen before, which is why we are where we are!

[gbcol] 28/8/2020 15:37

Yes getting very tight now. I believe that SDL have jumped above us from way down (up >30% this week). Anything around this level of share price should be fine but if it gets much under 108p it will be touch and go. Fortunately Monday is a Bank Holiday so only the rest of today and Tuesday to sweat it out (think it takes effect based on Tues close but correct me if that's not right).

[justiceforthemany] 28/8/2020 15:28

Someone is trying their damndest to ensure we do not get into the FTSE 250.

[peddlers] 28/8/2020 13:02

Added several thousand on the dip to capture the increase in price as we approach results.

[justiceforthemany] 27/8/2020 18:00

GSK shares are performing badly recently and again today despite approval of a new Myeloma drug.
Whether this slide is due to the upcoming retrial verdict or a possible bid who knows...

Just 3 more trading days before the FTSE review. UT consistently knocking the share price

[polaris] 27/8/2020 09:55

End of what story? Are you implying that is the case here? Why don't you go and look at the two buybacks? Come back and tell me what the average price of the buybacks were and what the share price is today. Then we at least have a basis for the discussion and to critically examine your statement.

[blackcrossinresidence] 27/8/2020 09:10

The problem is that the great majority of share buy backs are executed at above intrinsic value. End of story really.

[kiwi2007] 26/8/2020 23:24

Interesting article on buy-backs in Forbes:

[base7] 26/8/2020 18:46

Our share price performed poorly during the first buy back & my view of our recent strength is that our Results are expected to be good,our new strategy under our new CEO & senior management team is evolving & ,hopefully,beiginning to bear fruit,HIK seem to be very confident of approval some time soon,the GSK case will soon be resolved (hopefully confirming in our favour),there could be something else occurring in the background which is not yet in the public arena but those working on it are obviously aware -so ,currently, many reasons to be cheerful & I am hoping to re,ian cheerful following Results next month.Our sector generally has been pretty hot since C-19 reared its very ugly head & there is always the possibility that we Amy benefit commercially from developments in this respect .I am not buying at these levels as I have a very large holding (for me) & I am currently (happily ) in profit .

[best1467] 26/8/2020 17:27

Some Tosh been posed on the board and some posters not bothering to read in-depth analysis then come out with a post that above covered it’s entertaining at least

[westofengland] 26/8/2020 16:19

Thanks Polaris.

Sometimes, it is better not to overanalyse and that is the approach I am taking with this one at the moment.

They should be doing OK and if they are, the odds are that share price will nudge higher. If there's any special news, we could change the basis.

Good luck with your other endeavours! Hope the slight price malaise gave you an opportunity to get a position again.