Vanquis Banking Share Discussion Threads

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 17:13

Norge have been reducing their holding at Natwest

..((updated: 'perhaps')) .in part to fund increasing their holding in VANQ

[minja19] 22/5/2024 15:55

AGFX .. (Argentex, foreign exchange services for businesses)
starting to look interesting

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 15:10

disagree

the RNS says their voting rights have "increased" by 0.3% of VANQ !!

...which means Norges spent £470k on buying more shares in VANQ

[oakville] 22/5/2024 13:46

Norges now gone back to seeling some. Strange company.

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 12:49

...apologies...too many posts from me.

[elsa7878] 22/5/2024 11:59

Wow smithie when you get the bit between your teeth……..sometimes less is more. 😉

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 11:15

Bad debts from higher risk borrowers is a real & known fact.

As a result the interest cost that high risk borrowers pay is higher.

It is expected to have a material level of bad debts.

-----

My point was
...that the % of bad debts from the vehicle finance division is much lower than from other loans which are not asset backed.

Do you agree I am right ?

(It is also very visible in the financial numbers in the accounts)

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 11:12

If someone put a £10 note in your hand , for free, you would probably just complain !!

that it is not a twenty !!

je je !

[diku] 22/5/2024 10:56

There will be very little left from that £600 with the costs mentioned above and if the new payment plan is agreed the pay back is prolonged over period of time with more costs involved...eats into the margin...

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 10:28

fair point
but imo it must sharply reduce the % of debt that is not repaid because the borrower risks losing the car if they dont keep up payments, or agree a mew payment plan with VANQ.

(and if the borrower can afford to run a car then the % risk of a complaint about having lent to them is surely much lower)

and if a loan is for say £2000 for a vehicle, if default is after paying back £1000 (+ say £400 interest) = £1400, then the missing money is £600, VANQ only need to sell the recovered vehicle for >=£600 to avoid a loss (but noting that avoids mentioning various costs, vehicle recovery, admin. to then sell the vehicle....)
...I would assume that the borrower would be very co-operative with Vanquis to try to agree a new payment plan, to avoid the vehicle being taken away.

[diku] 22/5/2024 10:01

But don't the vehicles lose value?...

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 09:59

vehicle financing division is doing well
adjusted PBT of £59m

versus a cap. value of £157m for the whole group.

(& loans are asset backed, by the vehicle which VANQ owns until the loan is fully paid off)

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 09:42

yes....full benefit in 2024.

while yes, partial benefit ocurred in '23, the amount depending on when the cuts were made.

I agree with your point.

How much of the £60m cost saving for '24 was seen in '23 ?, good question. I doubt that that info is revealed, but I might be wrong.

---
so, likely cost saving benefit in '24 versus '23 ?
....let me double check what the accounts say

---
Elsa, you have an opinion on cost saving in '24 vs in '23 ?

£45m perhaps ?

if £45m then the benefit is still £45m + £21m (redundancy etc)
= £66m

almost 1/2 of the cap value !!

[elsa7878] 22/5/2024 09:35

Err no. The FULL benefit in 2024, part of it in 2023 when they cut 350 jobs etc....

[smithie6] 22/5/2024 09:33

btw

"and transformation cost savings are on track to meet £60m savings target as advised at 3Q23 with full benefit expected in 2024."

note the text "full benefit"

ie. cost savings of £60m in 2024.

That is almost HALF of the cap. value !

Also, one off costs in '23 of ~£21m were incurred in to generate that reduction in costs, including redundancy costs, lease termination costs etc.

That will not repeat in '24.
so, A + B = £60m + £21m
£81m

!!

'if' the NTAV stays unchanged after '24 then it stays at 170p/share, but if it increases due to that £81m then the NTAV should be higher after '24.

[diku] 22/5/2024 08:09

Maybe management will facilitate a private equity take out...they ride with it...

[oldtimer169] 22/5/2024 07:15

Sbb1x
I was merely highlighting the hypocrisy of an investor in BATS passing judgement on Vanquis holders.
Anyway, as pointed out the Vanquis of today is very different to the past and l see an opportunity to be part of that journey at an exciting time...as do key players in the company.As always DYOR

[smithie6] 21/5/2024 23:13

63p share price

versus 170p NTAV !

(be nice if a special divi was paid out, 30p, reducing the NTAV to 140p

and then each share would have cost 33p (63p-30p)....for a TNAV of 140p.

33p for a TNAV of
140p !!

...this share is too cheap imo.

[sbb1x] 21/5/2024 18:50

What do you make of post 344?

[klotzak] 21/5/2024 18:46

This is clinging on, could be it's turning around.

[smithie6] 21/5/2024 18:41

go on Jubber

tell us another 4 times tomorrow that you won't be buying VANQ shares, je je.

------

dont get too attached to your BAT divi

noting that the UK has introduced a law which g'tees the future extinction of all cigarette sales in the UK.

And other countries are looking at this new UK law & considering whether to also introduce it !

I wouldn't want to be invested in tabacco.

[minja19] 21/5/2024 14:02

jubber .. high divi stocks
you probably already have this list ..
only two there of interest to me

[jubberjim] 21/5/2024 12:58

Do you trust the next government not to promote this new 'woke' culture.

I have the feeling that what we are seeing now is only the tip of what might be a mighty big iceberg.
And I include BATS in that scenario.
Regulation regulation and yet more regulation is something I continue to be very wary off.

This and the tobacco stocks are all walking around with big targets on their back so while happy enough to steer clear of this particular share will 'Jub' in and out as and when for 8-10 %.

Have decamped most of my investments into trackers so just out of interest playing about about with high yielding shares.

Am off an age now where growth isnt my watchword return by way off dividend is.

In this market prefer cash balances

Hope that explains my rationale

As I said good luck to those who persevere

[123trev] 21/5/2024 11:41

You need to think more in the present jubber the government already along with the previous board destroyed the share price here things are different now. The government promoted a compensation culture but as they are now aware going to far has unintended consequences and you actually need banks like Vanquis as a safety net and new blood is now in the game add to that your thinking has cost you a substantial gain already.