Van Elle Share Discussion Threads

[melton john] 22/1/2025 12:33

I think this will be unlocked to all, might need to register as a PI:

[value hound] 22/1/2025 10:50

From Master Investor FWIW:

Van Elle - An Undervalued Opportunity?

Mark Watson-Mitchell takes a look at Van Elle before next week’s Interim Results.

In a week’s time, on Wednesday 29thJanuary, the UK’s largest ground engineering contractor that is focussed upon the housing and infrastructure markets, will be reporting its Interim Results for the six months to end-October 2024.On the face of it they may well look slightly daunting, as the business has been mired in somewhat challenging conditions across its various sectors.However, I take the view that now could be just the right time to tuck away a few Van Elle Holdings (LON:VANL)into your portfolios because this group is on the move..

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It then says:

"Continue reading this post for free in the Substack app"

- but I can't be bothered as I follow my own valuations etc and thought VANL to be worth more like 70p the last time I looked. Then again, it could be an evolving GARP type investment, but we'll know more next week.

[dplewis1] 20/1/2025 08:28

Can buy under 41p .. seems like a bargain

[flyer61] 20/1/2025 07:51

Quite Dave!

My gut feeling is Rockwood will try and take effective control and will then control the outcome they want to see. Probably by becoming the biggest shareholder though it wouldn’t surprise me if they go to 29.9 per cent. Doubt they will buy in the open market. They have form for ferreting out sellers off market. Just look at their buying of National World shares. The proceeds from the takeover of NWOR will have to go somewhere and VANL looks like being another rinse and repeat.

[dplewis1] 20/1/2025 07:02

Well that's convenient timing .. lol hTTps://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/VANL/eight-year-electricity-transmission-agreement/16859306

[sphere25] 19/1/2025 19:20

Had to have a closer look here. Unusual buying activity. We just don't this see nowadays in our garbage market.

I'm unsure if the VANL major shareholder page is entirely accurate. Just trying to piece this together to see if this is a pure Otus overhang play. Overhang plays in the past have been nice to jump on. Otus have been the one's making the biggest moves - RNS disclosures show that.

Otus (the party who have to disclose on the part of the shareholders) have cut from 19.18% down to 13.99% with six holding disclosures from 17th May 2024 to the most recent a few months back on 31/10/2024. The VANL website shows them as having sold again so down to 13.44% on 2nd January. They didn't cross under the 13% threshold so no disclosure needed, so that looks accurate. They have definitely been a substantial drag on the price and a real pain for holders.

Premier Miton cut from 10% to 4.9% on the 16th October 2024 and aren't showing on the VANL website. So has that site been updated to show them as being bought out by RKW and Gyllenhammer with some being picked up from Otus or this all Otus?

Puma Investment disclosed a 3.04% stake on that same date Premier Miton cut, so they have probably taken the bulk of the Premier Miton stake on that exchange date, but they're not showing on the VANL website. Why would they sell so soon after buying like that?

So I don't know if that holding page is entirely accurate. It is cloudy to piece it together.

But the moves recently are still big. You don't see this often in our smaller caps market nowadays, so I have honed in more than usual here:

- Rockwood had 5.95% as at 4th Feb 2022. Three very recent disclosures takes them to 9.24%

- Gyllenhammar crosses the 3% threshold to disclose 4.24%

- So that is potentially about 7.5% picked up recently by two players

Furthermore, someone is definitely still buying. You had the trades disclosed on Friday (for Friday) with someone mopping up decent blocks (@38p and 38.5p) and there were delayed prints disclosed late on Friday showing delayed trades from the 16th January:

2 x 500k@37p
2 x 450k@37p
250k@37.2p
200k@37.2p

Gyllenhammar crossed the threshold on the 14th Jan with Rockwood, a day later, on the 15th Jan, so they don't include the above.

So even if those are both sides of exchanges, that still looks like 1% thresholds are being crossed for fun here. Just unsure what the full picture is without more disclosures, especially from Otus.

So we could be nearing a double digit percentage of VANL shares being quite aggressively picked up by just two buyers.

Very rare.

IF they keep coming in like this, and Ruffer don't move, they could exhaust the supply. So yeah, even if people don't have any interest here, it's a notable watch at worse isn't it. I'm looking for a little run to lob into the results. That would be nice.

There are no guarantees in the markets though. You can see the way emotion has stirred on the IGR board recently. Not suggesting that is going to happen here or this is going to the moon.

Only commenting on the notable buying coming in.

But that is worth a mention as well. Things do go wrong at times (been there, got the t-shirt) and the blame game begins. Everyone makes their own moves and that is on them.

Learn from the bad. Do more of the good that works.

The only way I'm here, and I shouldn't be involved in markets, is because I owned my own moves. I am responsible for my balls ups - noone else.....ME!

Nice and simple.

No drama.

That is the usual two penny post done.

Hope this adds something to the board here.

All the best folks!

All imo
DYOR

[sphere25] 17/1/2025 15:53

I'm in for a trade here, averaging 38.8p. Someone is in the market picking up blocks at 38p and 38.5p today. That looks like it is one of the two above.

Market makers are shifting up with three now sat on the bid at 38p. This is the first time you're getting some form of movement. Previously it just sat down, had a biscuit and a sip of tea and wouldn't move on heavy buying.

Sometimes this type of movement can be a precursor to any sellers clearing as well, so I would rather have a go and see if there is any momentum. An exit if it goes stale, but here's the thing, short term trading aside, this is what long term value players were looking for at VANL.

They have been sat here waiting for this kind of action, and someone to make big moves, with what looks like Otus being the real stumbling block. Now it is happening - the game is changing. These buyers are players and they're talking with their positioning - it is big positioning, enough to move the dial here. They come in to shares like this to sniff out long term value.

Time will tell how that play outs, but they're going to buy any weakness imo. I can see that last update was wobbly. It doesn't inspire too much confidence in the near term, but VANL are probably going to say a similar thing at the update on the 29th January.

So in line with expectations, with delays being mentioned, and that second half weighting. But now you have a form of floor in the market with these buyers and anyone who follows these players.

It is all notable stuff.

All imo
DYOR

[dplewis1] 17/1/2025 15:44

I've had another nibble, hopefully I don't dilute the smart money too much

[flyer61] 17/1/2025 15:44

The 35000 buy is me….

[chrisdgb] 17/1/2025 15:33

The right names are starting to circle.....

[dplewis1] 17/1/2025 14:20

Not heard of him tbh, will do some digging. Someone just snaffled the last at 38p so now 38.5 to buy

[sphere25] 17/1/2025 14:17

Oooh interesting

Gyllenhammar discloses a stake

Off the top of me little head...I think he was buying quite big down in BAR wasn't he and then it got taken over recently.

Don't know the full history, but is he a shrewdie?

So they're chomping away by buying, but a big sell order still in work in the market. This would have gone flying into the 40's on just a few trades without what looks like at least Otus lobbing in the market.

Notable disclosures here though.

All imo
DYOR

14:28

There is the list of holders. The shares that are being picked up can only really come from Otus or Ruffer. It has only been Otus making bigger moves to sell down so I am assuming it is them. The combined buying by Harwood and Mr G is about 13.5%. I'm not entirely sure but I suspect Mr G will keep buying so if those two keep going for it, then it is only Ruffer who can likely stop any momentum. Now I have read their reports of late and they tend to adopt this mega defensive stance expecting the markets to fall apart, with some equity exposure. Don't know if they are clearing out some to stay defensive or how their funds are split, but there is a little bit of market maker movement. Show us some more big buying.

[dplewis1] 17/1/2025 14:15

Another investment company taking a stake here ..

[dplewis1] 16/1/2025 14:59

From their investment approach blurb it says that Harwood have an "event-driven investment style where shareholder value is maximised through specific restructuring or financial reengineering within an investee company" .. I'd bet they are going to go higher than their current 9%..

[sphere25] 16/1/2025 13:47

6% to 7% to 8%

Up up they go

Money where the mouth is by RKW

Otus are still the 800lb gorilla in the room though

Don't know how long it is going to take to clear them

All imo
DYOR

[baner] 15/1/2025 17:29

rockwood is probably the smartest fund manager in this sector - so this is a very good sign! Van Elle will deliver EBIDTA of c. 12p/share this year - with scope for growth onwards. as the company is debt free, if valued at 5 times EBIDTA the shares would be 60p. it will take a year or so, but we should absolutely get there - with a low risk until then. excellent risk/reward.

[dplewis1] 14/1/2025 14:57

Looks like Rockwood have bought another lump today

[flyer61] 09/1/2025 10:07

If you want 200K shares they are available inside the spread.

Agreed, Harwood will want something to happen here.

[cfro] 09/1/2025 09:40

RNWH should buy these. It would make a brilliant little bolt-on for them..

[baner] 09/1/2025 08:20

I guess short term results not fantastic however cash flow strong and no doubt rock wood - one of the smartest investors in town - will push them towards a trade sale. 50-60p no doubt achievable if so.

[dplewis1] 08/1/2025 08:53

Rockwood still buying. Couple of weeks until results and a business update

[dplewis1] 01/1/2025 09:45

hTTps://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/share-tip-van-elle-holdings-well-worth-getting-dug-in-and-piling-into-these-shares-at-37p-broker-value-at-68-5p/

[flyer61] 23/12/2024 16:17

Wonder if VANL is going to feature on any of the new year stock picks.......

[diku] 21/12/2024 08:46

Post 1255...was that due to contract execution across divisions which can be mis leading...so where does the below stand from recent results?...



Notwithstanding these challenging market conditions, the Group delivered a robust performance, in line with expectations, with underlying profit before tax of £5.1m (FY2023: £5.3m). Underlying operating margin also remained stable at 3.9% (FY2023: 3.9%)