Urban Logistics Reit Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 21/3/2024 15:23

I don't, and think I was first to say API totally didn't fit with SHED. But - when they looked like having a good chance of getting it, they were about £1.19. Yesterday they touched £1.16 as the deadline approached, with the fear they'd up the bid.

Instead they pulled it. On a flat FTSE, that ought to be worth £1.20 at least. £1.25 in a good market. Still 4p below where they were, but crucially above where they were when they could still have upped the bid, let alone won API on the existing terms.

Makes no sense to me. Why would CREI fall further, but SHED be largely unmoved.

Edit - guess we're waiting to see how much money SHED wasted on their pursuit of API - "one-off, exceptional" costs.

[scruff1] 21/3/2024 15:15

It doesnt work that way Spec. Like any relationship, once trust is broken it takes a lot of repairing. You said it yourself yesterday - the management is tarnished, Do you trust em?

[spectoacc] 21/3/2024 14:52

+155 FTSE now. SHED was c.£1.29 before the "Oh no, they're going to buy that API junk" fall.

[igoe104] 21/3/2024 14:38

Nothing will make sense with these reits and investment trusts until H2 when hopefully interest rates start being reduced..

[spectoacc] 21/3/2024 14:09

Don't get SHED at all. FTSE +140, out of the ridiculous fight for API, and can't even catch a bid.

If CREI went down on being "successful", why has SHED not gone up? They were in with a good chance, as the share price attested.

[skinny] 21/3/2024 07:08

"If the CREI Merger is not approved by the requisite majority of API Shareholders, the API Board has made clear that a Managed Wind-Down is the next best alternative, but API Shareholders should not expect the same sale values as for ordinary course disposals.

The API Board independently elected to undertake a comprehensive review of API's strategic options which has resulted in a number of opportunities to deliver an uplift in value for API Shareholders."

[skinny] 21/3/2024 07:08

Not only that scruff - but it was posted on the wrong thread!

[scruff1] 21/3/2024 06:17

A pretty astute summation imo elbrus.

Skinny - a tad uncharacteristic - hanging out your washing for the neighbours !

[elbrus55] 21/3/2024 01:30

Agree.I'm not sure I agree with other comments about a lame bid. For an all equity offer they should be assessing the value of each portfolio using their own NAV model and then offering each set of shareholders their fair share of the equity. Cash component needs to be based on realistic sale value. As soon as you start enhancing an offer above those calculated results you are diluting your own shareholders in favour of the target's.So the offer argument for a target has to be based on strategic factors and management efficiency. It looks like they attempted this, but it didn't win out.Anyway, hopefully the advisory expenses aren't too painful and they can move on.

[williamcooper104] 20/3/2024 18:27

I think it's a case of having spent all time and money putting in a last attempt hail merry bid - the incremental cost of which is v little Key thing is they've not gone and chased it up So on that basis I'd be relatively forgiving on management

[williamcooper104] 20/3/2024 18:26

I'm still holding BBOX It's a back door equity raise If they execute well then all will be forgiven

[riverman77] 20/3/2024 17:09

Can't understand their thinking - putting in an offer so poor it was obviously not going to proceed, and now nursing a roughly 10% hit to their share price as a result. Perhaps one of the bigger players might now come in for SHED?

[scruff1] 20/3/2024 17:04

Thats cutting William - and very apt though Im still wiling to give BBOX time.

[williamcooper104] 20/3/2024 16:50

Ditto Big Box Or as someone told me the other day Tritax Any Box

[spectoacc] 20/3/2024 16:17

"On 20 February 2024 Urban Logistics announced details of an indicative offer made to the Board of API (the "Original Indicative Offer"). Urban Logistics today announces that it will not be proceeding with an offer for API. On 18 March 2024 Urban Logistics made an announcement including further information on an alternative proposal submitted to the Board of API (the "Alternative Proposal"). Urban Logistics today announces that it will not be proceeding with the Alternative Proposal."

[lefrene] 18/3/2024 12:14

I guess we're seeing what happens in a credit squeeze, those with access to capital are going to call the shots, particularly when things look like they're going to get worse before they get better. Shed will call the deal it wants, or walk away, there are likely to be more deals on offer before too long, as over leveraged real estate 'kings' have to bend the knee.

[skyship] 18/3/2024 10:29

SHED new deal looks a total non-starter to me - wonder why they bothered with such an elaborate and clearly flawed proposition.

They should just have withdrawn and saved SHEDloads full of additional fees.

[riverman77] 18/3/2024 09:14

This would be very unappealing for API - they lose their best assets for a poor price, and then have the expense and hassle of realising their other assets - this might take a couple of years and in the meantime they have to cover all their running costs from a smaller asset base (so much higher costs in percentage terms).

[spectoacc] 18/3/2024 09:11

I still think it'll go to CREI, due solely to the board recommendation.

If there's a 3-way split, then wind-down option. Try to get a bit more out of SHED, ideally in cash, for the good part.

Been a wasteful show of hubris so far - CREI shareholders don't want the deal (why mash a high discount REIT to their previously low discount one). SHED shareholders clearly don't want it, whether with the offices or just industrial/RP, because SHED is neither - it's last mile (have they edited their website yet?).

Potentially 3 sets of wasted corporate finance/advisor/defence fees coming up.

[elbrus55] 18/3/2024 09:06

Doesn't seem too bad for SHED shareholders. Main thing is they don't overbid. If they overbid their own shareholders will reject it anyway. I suppose API board were underwhelmed with the implicit value being placed on their offices in the previous bid, so SHED have said "ok, we will only buy the stuff we actually want" and you can sell your own offices if you think they are worth that much.This would need 25% of API shareholders to vote against the CREI proposal and then API and SHED shareholders to for (75% majority each vote) . It feels not that likely to go through. API don't have that many big shareholders so they would need a handful of those with 2, 3, 4, 5% to vote against. There are lots of retail shareholders who mostly don't vote at all, or not in any single way so they tend not be pivotal.Some extra expenses though.

[riverman77] 18/3/2024 07:37

From what I can see this deal looks worse than the original deal - they want the good bits of API (at a huge discount) and then want API to deal with getting rid of what's left.

[skyship] 18/3/2024 07:14

Strewth - certainly a load to read & try to comprehend. Which to Hold/Buy - API. CREI or SHED? CREI really hammered down on Friday, making their API offer now just 54.8p, same as the SHED offer at 117p!

[spectoacc] 18/3/2024 07:10

They seem to be doubling down on something SHED shareholders clearly don't want.

[skinny] 18/3/2024 07:03

A bit of a tome :-