Urban Logistics Reit Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 19/2/2024 13:35

Nothing to see here ... yet!

[tonysss13] 19/2/2024 13:06

interesting tale

[williamcooper104] 17/1/2024 09:29

Nice update 31 percent realised reversion on lease expiries

[petewy] 16/1/2024 09:22

Thanks Jonwig

[jonwig] 16/1/2024 07:14

From Quoted Date (13/01) -

If an inflexion point in the interest rates cycle has been reached, as seems to be the case, Urban Logistics REIT (SHED) is a compelling proposition. Valuations have stabilised – as evidenced by a 0.2% uplift in the value of SHED’s portfolio in the six months to September 2023 – while the company has substantial reversion baked into its portfolio (reversion is the rental growth potential of the portfolio, being the difference between current portfolio rents and the estimated rental value of the portfolio).

SHED’s manager has an enviable track record of creating value through asset management initiatives. It says that it will continue to be a focus for the company as it builds on the success of recent lease events that resulted in a 10% uplift in rents. Operating in the ‘mid-box’ segment of the logistics sector – where strong rental growth is forecast, and supply and demand characteristics remain favourable – gives it an advantage over both the wider real estate sector and some of its closest peers.

SHED’s current discount to net asset value (NAV) of 23.5% seems both unjustified and highly attractive, especially if the next move in interest rates is down.

Full note:

[skinny] 02/12/2023 11:35

Presumably based on this article from a few weeks ago :-

[scruff1] 02/12/2023 06:53

.Interesting article in todays City Wire 'UK Reits: Value us on earnings not 'mythical' net asset values'. Its what the Americans are doing where there is no mention of NAV at all.

[igoe104] 09/11/2023 12:48

Alot of these property Reits are vulnerable for a T/O i hold Bbox, WHR and Shed all over 30% below there NAVs

[williamcooper104] 09/11/2023 11:07

Yep - wouldn't be a shock to see it taken out Topped up this morning Nothing not to like here

[nickrl] 09/11/2023 10:27

Good use of small sales to eliminate the expensive uncapped RCF debt as well as funding the capex leaves them better placed on finance costs. Also i see the mgt charges are being lowered from May 24 which will give us a bit more back. Also the Tuffnells administration hasn't really harmed them as all relet and small pain of 0.25m in unpaid rent. No immediate refi issues just need to get Newhall away. Wouldn't be surprised if the slide rule isn't being run over this one.

[scruff1] 09/11/2023 08:57

As is the market at the moment strong financial performances arent popular

[skinny] 09/11/2023 07:17

HIGHLIGHTS

Strong Financial Performance

-- Net rental income of GBP28.5m +12.1% (Sep 2022: GBP25.4m)
-- High gross to net rental income ratio 96.5% (Sep 2022: 96.4%)
-- IFRS profit of GBP16.9m (Sep 2022: GBP2.4m)
-- Adjusted EPS(1) of 3.46 pence (Sep 2022: 3.38 pence)
-- Interim Dividend per share of 3.25 pence (Sep 2022: 3.25 pence)
-- 99.1% of H1 rents demanded were collected (Sep 2022: 99.6%)

[spectoacc] 23/10/2023 08:31

Lol @scrff1, also got some physical from those sort of times. The ETF been my one bright spot lately.

ME going to be interesting - not so much for Armageddon as the effect on oil price if Iran formally gets involved.


Thanks @nickrl. Was never keen on Tufnells, seemed a strange one & has proven so. One of the few missteps from what IMO is the best management.

Interesting how for most REITs, it's "can they hold the divi", not even a whiff of divi growth. The lower your cost of debt now, the bigger the potential hit later.

SHED trading at £1 but WHR also looking like breaking down. At some point they're big longs, but no clue when.

Been surprised how well the generalist REITs have held up - API, UKCM - neither of which I rate.

[nickrl] 21/10/2023 11:16

@Sky divi nearly covered (unlike API) and once full rent gained from recent asset mgt will be covered despite the Tuffnells loss. c45% of debt (RCF 151m) due in Aug 25 could be an issue - 90m is capped at 2.84 balance is floating but they've taken another fixed loan recently to neuter use of the floating element. They've made a couple of small sales so they can cover rest of committed development costs without anymore use of RCF. So if IR hold at this level they will be facing 6+ for a refi but my take is the additional cost of that should be covered by reversions. Thus divi growth unlikely anytime soon but with a yield close to 8% it feels more resilient to higher for longer IR than EBOX on 3+ yr horizon but id say its equally possible for rates especially in EU to come back quicker than UK.

[scruff1] 20/10/2023 18:37

Spec
Interesting. I hold GSF,BBOX, SUPR and hold physical gold as a hedge against armageddon which I thought was upon us quite a few years ago when it was around £800. Looking like armageddon was delayed til around 2023

[spectoacc] 20/10/2023 16:27

SHED is last mile, EBOX is giant European boxes. Completely different co's. I hold EBOX but I'd rate SHED's management far higher.

But raises the interesting point of Opportunity Cost.

There's going to be a great buying op soon, on a lot of things - but not convinced we're there yet, albeit am long eg GSF, SEIT, GCP, SOHO, EBOX, SUPR, ORIT, EPIC, AGR, BOOT.

Long-dated Gilts and a gold ETF still my largest holdings. And why not.

[skyship] 20/10/2023 15:33

100p - 38% discount and 7.6% yield - dividend uncovered.

Beginning to look like value; however EBOX far better value in the logistics space - 50.8% discount & 9.8% yield - dividend covered..

[spectoacc] 19/10/2023 08:29

Just thinking same about WHR..

[cc2014] 19/10/2023 08:28

100p coming up. A chart to behold.

[skinny] 16/10/2023 07:03

Notice of Half Year Results

Urban Logistics (LON: SHED), the last mile logistics focused REIT, announces that the Company will publish its half year results for the six months ended 30 September 2023 on Thursday, 9 November 2023.

A sell-side analyst briefing will be held at 09:30 a.m. on the day of results at the offices of Buchanan, 107 Cheapside, London, EC2V 6DN. A webcast link will also be available for those unable to join in person. To register attendance, please contact Buchanan at [e-mail].

[nickrl] 04/10/2023 23:57

seven year low here almost below IPO price. Divi is covered at the cash level and no immediate debt issues but everything being contaminated now by higher for longer.

[scruff1] 27/9/2023 15:43

Maybe not !!

[scruff1] 27/9/2023 09:05

mmm. The Chief Investment officer is down about 10% since his purchase. I hope hes in the right job :-)