Urban Logistics Reit Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 11/8/2023 10:25

Hi Shalder

Yes (post 651), though its easy to filter out small purchasers of things which are clearly a DRIS. I tend to look at number of directors buying, and the % increase in their position. One director buying alone I dont view as significant, nor when a director only adds a few % to their position.

Here, though you have:
- 3/8: one PDMR adding for the first time around £10k
- 17/7: another increasing his position 34% and spending £20k
- 27/6 another adding 10% to his position and investing £150k (less significant IMO)
- 27/6: another first time purchase of c.£20k
- 27/6 Chair of the advisor adding 50% to his position @ £40kish
- 23/6: chair adding c.10% to his position. £60k odd

So there's quite a lot of additions, and some adding meaningful %s to their positions.

Adam

[shalder] 10/8/2023 20:45

Agree with that. There's a few companies around right now where there is a potential or claimed turnaround but there is no meaningful director buying and you need to ask why is that?

[williamcooper104] 10/8/2023 20:35

I got out of half my Burford shares when management sold half of theirs and then bought back in when they eventually did It's not infallible, but I never invest in a turnaround when management aren't investing in it - as in they may be deluded in buying in but they're rarely wrong when they don't buy into a recovery

[shalder] 10/8/2023 20:03

AdamB: Director share dealings even more interesting if they involve large sales, as purchases very often are part of the normal pattern, i.e. one would usually expect directors to be accumulating under various heads like share incentive/bonus schemes, reinvestment of divis etc.

I personally watch out more for substantial sales, partly the result of experience: I owned shares in Queens Moat in 1993. It was disclosed that the dep chairman had sold 1.1 million shares on the eve of the closed period prior to the results for 1992 - the red flag for me was the stated reason for the sale, which from memory was that his daughter would be going to uni, so she needed funds to buy a flat there. 1.1 million shares sold @ about 57p = approx £627,000. That sort of money to buy a provincial student flat in 1993 was quite literally unbelievable so I immediately sold my shares, and of course QMH then proceeded to go spectacularly bust, and they now crop up as a cautionary tale on dodgy accounting practice.

[adamb1978] 10/8/2023 18:41

I hold these in my SIPP as a bond-like investment; thinking of adding more as a buy/forget about position. Material discount to NAV and would re-rate when interest rates come down, divi covered by earnings, some top and bottom line growth expected and also LOTS of director buying over the last couple months.

I tend not to spend too much time looking at director purchases, aside from when there's multiple Ds adding, and adding relatively material amounts both in £ terms and relative to their ownership

[makinbuks] 24/7/2023 10:16

Completely agree nickrl, companies should be made to announce the straight facts and not the spin. The announcement on debt is all about averages which is irrelevant. what matters is the marginal rate of interest because that is what affects what happens next.

None the less as you say sensible to fix at the best rate you can get

[nickrl] 24/7/2023 09:03

@specto at least they've escaped Tufnell's failure leaving them with all 12 units.

Reasonably positive update but wish they would give all of the story not just the "better" news. So c1.15m additional rent good but what's the current vacancy rate? Also two assets sold yes at a modest profit but which ones what yield?. So rental income neutral but must be slightly down with Tuffnell loss.

On debt im surmising (as they dont say and no other previous RNS on it) the new loan they've taken out is to cancel out the 51m drawn under the Barclays facility that is floating and sitting on 7% but on what terms? Its eminently sensible move but doubt that Aviva have kept the 3.99% from last time so probably more like 5% but anyhow removes the SONIA risk.

[spectoacc] 24/7/2023 07:06

"Following the administration of Tuffnell's, 9 of the 12 leases are being re-assigned on the same terms, and 3 smaller units (representing 0.45% of the rent roll) are actively being marketed."


Not quite as hot a market as it was.

[skinny] 24/7/2023 07:04

Trading Update

Asset Recycling & Active Management Drive Income

Urban Logistics (LON: SHED), the last mile logistics focused REIT, is pleased to provide an update on trading activity for the period from 1 April 2023 to 30 June 2023.

Highlights:

-- 4 new lettings signed in the period, generating over GBP0.85m of additional rental income
-- 2 rent reviews settled in the period, at a weighted average uplift of 20% generating an additional GBP0.3m of rental income

-- 2 assets sold in the period for gross proceeds of GBP15m, representing a 3.4% premium to March 2023 valuations

-- GBP57m of new fixed rate debt put in place to refinance existing floating rate debt, moving the total debt book to GBP367m drawn, with a further GBP51m of undrawn facility at an all-in rate of 4.2%, 93% hedged or fixed to term, with a weighted average maturity of 6.0 years. The debt is provided by Aviva Investors, and is a sustainably linked loan

-- Following the administration of Tuffnell's, 9 of the 12 leases are being re-assigned on the same terms, and 3 smaller units (representing 0.45% of the rent roll) are actively being marketed.

Richard Moffitt, of Urban Logistics, commented:

"Against a backdrop of a challenging economic and equity market environment our focus is on delivering strong operational and financial performance.

"Our active asset management continues to drive performance and is supported by continued demand from tenants alongside a low national vacancy rate. The rent reviews and new lettings signed in the period have delivered significant additional income to the portfolio and the Company has selectively sold a number of assets where our asset management initiatives are substantially complete. These assets were sold at a premium to their March 2023 valuation.

"The recent refinancing means the Company has a very secure debt position, with capital available to be allocated as opportunities arise. 93% of the debt is now hedged or fixed to term, with the earliest debt maturity is in August 2025.

"The market for assets in the Company lot size remains robust and over the coming months we intend to recycle additional assets, further validating our net asset value. The Board consistently reviews the best use of capital and, where appropriate, will use the funds to selectively acquire assets which have compelling value accretive asset management opportunities to deliver strong income and total returns."

- Ends -

[gbcol] 21/7/2023 14:17

Yes a very decent divi which I have also reinvested.

[igoe104] 21/7/2023 10:54

Nice dividend received today, reinvested..

[spectoacc] 12/7/2023 13:55

Ducked back out of SHED, good luck holders - couldn't resist the profit with the divi too, but plenty of room in chart to go higher.

Got more than mid for the sell, so some demand atm.

[jonwig] 07/7/2023 15:10

lefrene - thanks for reply. I concur with all of it.

For some irrational reason, I'd rather hold stuff like SHED than jump into gilts!

[lefrene] 07/7/2023 12:13

jonwig, "An uncanny resemblance to the housing market!" I guess because the mechanics of it are very similar, leveraged loan against expected utility and anticipated income stream, stacked up against reducing levels of available credit, and the possibility of money costing more going forwards.

The distress in domestic loans leads to less consumer spending, leads possibly to less requirements for logistics space. I say possibly because perhaps more spending will move on line in attempts to save money?

SHED imo has one of the better business models in the sector, but it doesn't make them immune from the broader aspects if an economy begins to shrink.

[jonwig] 06/7/2023 15:08

scruff - a technical point. Trading is very thin, so price movements are exaggerated. Also most trading is on SETS (AT stamped) so every trade is simultaneously a buy and a sell. The price tells you nothing much.

What this means is that buyers are holding off whilst would-be sellers are withdrawing bids rather than accepting offers. An uncanny resemblance to the housing market!

[spectoacc] 06/7/2023 09:40

Glad of that dividend.

No strength in any of them - SGRO, BBOX, WHR, SHED - with the further tick higher in the risk-free.

c.5.85% on the October 2025 Gilt.

[scruff1] 06/7/2023 09:38

Funny old world. Just 60k shares traded out of 471m and the price drops 2.5%. Quite a few of those were buys too (possibly)

[williamcooper104] 05/7/2023 14:16

Bbox just sold a shed (20 years to howden) in Nottinghamshire for 4 yield No let up in market demand for the asset class

[spectoacc] 05/7/2023 14:16

Still in a few SHED but agree re recession. Think more a question of interest rates/returns/the risk-free atm tho - if just recession, the likes of SUPR (almost immune) wouldn't be on its rear end.

WHR, BBOX, SHED - & same for other near-proxies like LXI.

[lefrene] 05/7/2023 14:12

jonwig, I suspect they will have got themselves the best possible terms, and will pay at the last possible moment the contract allows! :¬) Which I guess is what everyone else tries to do.

I like SHED as a business model, but feel that now is not the time, we seem to be going into a general recession, thus one would expect some decline in demand for logistics space, even if SHED has the most favourable sort.

[jonwig] 03/7/2023 17:12

But do they pay their rent on time?

[lefrene] 03/7/2023 16:41

Amazon are a bully, I wouldn't want to be a supplier to them. I did some work for a large business supplying parcel services to them, I don't know why the company bothered, it was razor thin margins, and Amazon had a habit of delaying vehicles, and treating the drivers like dirt.

That might well have changed though, as the last amazon place I went into had changed the traffic office staff, and installed facilities for the drivers, so something improved a bit. I presume that they contracted out the traffic office operation to a third party. I don't use Amazon because I have seen behind the scenes and seen how they treat their staff. They do their level best to turn people into robots.

[giltedge1] 02/7/2023 14:41

Yes dynamics look good, as can,t see many being built next few years, hurdle rate at least 8%, plus planning etc. I know Amazon looking to exit a few sites, but they must be big boxes.

[lefrene] 02/7/2023 11:02

giltedge1, transport is very different to retail. Move fast to retain the clients, before they contract other arrangements. The clients will be accustomed to a certain routine and if you can swiftly show that their routine can be maintained, then they will stay with you, because disruption costs them money, and brain ache in trying to source other service providers that can replicate what their business hinges on.

SHED no doubt only too happy to accommodate them as seamlessly as possible, it's the proverbial win win.

[giltedge1] 02/7/2023 09:07

Big positive DX moved so quickly to secure sites, shows the shortage in market, I couldn't, see the same scramble in retail or offices for example. Not sure why sudden fall, must be sentiment would like to buy back but already have a large REIT exposure. Looks a good entry point.