Urals Energy Share Discussion Threads

[chavitravi2] 03/4/2017 15:22

I have to agree with Topicel to the larger extent that they could have said they see no reason other than what we have recently previously reported to the market.
Which was; then gone on to recap and then state they believe this is what the market is reacting too.

In my view once again the classic UEN management vagueness and understatement missing opportunities to take the share price forward.

[djmoggy] 03/4/2017 14:35

"Djm, why then could the BoD have led the statement RNS with the oil price improvement and sector sentiment improvement as their reading of the revaluation from an already oversold position if they "saw no reason" operationally?

The BoD had no need to be so accommodating to the LSE (and there is no evidence they were asked to comment any more than in any other 'rocket' cases we see from time to time on AIM, and certainly they never do when we suffer great percentage falls...

So, if you think they want the share price up they have not approached things very well for, as an option, they could have implied the company had impending plans which they'd already announced and stood by those as offering a potential unlocking of potential value in UEN that was being overlooked."

You cannot imply potential in a clarification RNS... and you can't use the explanation that people are buying in on impending plans (that haven't been announced) as that points to insider trading!

However - I'm happy to accept that we have a different viewpoint.... and even if it is something sinister as you say to keep a cap on the price to let in others on the cheap - we will never know - so no point in debating endlessly :)

"You seem to willing to let them drift. The fact you have suggested we won't have data for this year's' improvements until June 2018 also suggests you feel we are now at a plateau for the foreseeable, as I posted? That was my overall observation. Maybe I've misread your opinion?"

Eh??? I already mentioned some of the factors that will influence the shareprice upwards which I expect to happen before June 2018. I think you misunderstand - June 2018 is the release date for 2017 accounts (going by every previous year) - this is the point at which we will definitely see official figures and see a (hopeful)considerable increase in Year End profit figure...
The accounts may be released earlier than this date (weeks or a couple of months at most) or prior to the accounts UEN management may put out an prelim announcement detailing their forecasted financial results.
To remove any doubt my context here is solely the financial results. I'm not saying UEN management will withhold data (drilling results, flow rates, overall production rates, etc etc which will allow the average investor to make their own determination into potential for investment).

[topicel] 03/4/2017 13:57

Djm, why then could the BoD have led the statement RNS with the oil price improvement and sector sentiment improvement as their reading of the revaluation from an already oversold position if they "saw no reason" operationally?

The BoD had no need to be so accommodating to the LSE (and there is no evidence they were asked to comment any more than in any other 'rocket' cases we see from time to time on AIM, and certainly they never do when we suffer great percentage falls...

So, if you think they want the share price up they have not approached things very well for, as an option, they could have implied the company had impending plans which they'd already announced and stood by those as offering a potential unlocking of potential value in UEN that was being overlooked.

You seem to willing to let them drift. The fact you have suggested we won't have data for this year's' improvements until June 2018 also suggests you feel we are now at a plateau for the foreseeable, as I posted? That was my overall observation. Maybe I've misread your opinion?

Anyway, the pump and dump players like Paul the Octopus with his chain of share price events have gone on to pastures new it seems. They were what drove us higher along with the management intentions to do a capital reduction, IMHO.

Topicel

[wanna brew] 03/4/2017 11:02

TopWhat's your take on lack of any further news in any updates on consolidation etc. Is going to be the same as when they were going to headhunt for a CEO ( that may take time) No putting negative slant as personally see consolidation as negative.

[djmoggy] 03/4/2017 10:51

Martyn9 - we are already aligned - I am saying this year (2017) will show a marked increase in profit(if all goes to plan) - we just need to wait till June 2018 before FY results for 2017 are released for official annoucement :(.

Sorry Topicel - not sure what your point is and think you are barking up the wrong tree re artificial ceiling instigated by the management.

Re Jan RNS
IMHO I think it's the simple case that the management were asked by the LSE to explain why in the space of 6weeks the shareprice increased over 300% from 1.75p - 7.25p (which is the point at which the RNS was released). Remember this is the LSE they would not have factored in the recovery of Oil as a reasonable explanation - some pencil pusher saw 300% rise and wanted to know why!
If you speak to the management you will realise that they are in the same boat as us - they want the shareprice to rise to higher levels. Makes their job easier (happier shareholders and provides an option of using issue of shares to raise funds) and also will enable them to profit (realise the value of their own share options).

Share price
This will look after itself - drilling commencement at Komi/South Dagi will see a raft of buying interest. Success will raise us to the next trading range. Improved results will do the same as will any further M&A action.

Stake building
The UEN management are reliant on stake builders to inform the market - however as has happened in the past anyone building a stake in the company can do so in a stealthy manner and not inform the market. It is entirely possible for someone to anonymously build a stake in UEN and exceed 3% and above without management or LSE/AIM to know who they are or how much they have acquired until they decide to reveal themselves (if indeed they want to at all). For example Fire East were buying shares slowly for 4 months prior to revealing their hand.

[topicel] 03/4/2017 08:58

So djm, you agree that the company 'see no reason' statement in January was a realistic one and we have reached a plateau between 5p and 6p for the foreseeable?

Daily fluctuations aside, the ceiling was put on this by our own side and no amount of wishful thinking about other 'Predators' will change that without a sudden upswing in the price of oil again.

Topicel

[martyn9] 03/4/2017 08:56

Moggy,i get what your saying to a point,but surely this year with two shipments of oil and new drilling(admit if success with them) the potential and extra profit on sales the profit will increase this year?

[djmoggy] 02/4/2017 21:41

Ahhh.. If only MC was determined by revenue alone Calm!!

Sadly UEN's Cost of Good's sold and Selling expenses mean that actual net profit/(loss) figures don't justify a great market cap on previous years reading.

However the management can change the net profit figure quickly and make the P.E. ratio very attractive quite quickly by increasing overall production and continued cost reduction.

However the one factor that has a huge bearing on profitability is the Russian Government changes in Oil(&Gas) taxation and consequent changes to Ural's strategy (export vs local sales, selling of downstream products vs selling of crude oil). It appears that management are actually on the ball here and are anticipating and reacting to best take advantage.

Still a long way off but I think the Y/E accounts for 2017 (given that development plans are carried out as per the presentation) will show a 30% increase in revenue and importantly a very healthy operating profit. (For 2016 full year I'm thinking we will see figures broadly in line with 2015 with perhaps a very modest improvement in revenue and net profit).

[calmtrader] 01/4/2017 15:46

Moggy re your earlier post about revenue from oil shipments it makes are market cap silly

[chavitravi2] 31/3/2017 15:51

Oh right, must be Tone the Bone that got them. Getting confused in my old age.

[martyn9] 31/3/2017 12:19

So is it now a question of sit and wait for hopefully good news in june? lets hope investors have the patience to hang on and not sell up.

[calmtrader] 31/3/2017 10:24

chav dont hold those...missed it

[chavitravi2] 31/3/2017 09:48

Calm, I note SOLG is steadily creeping up. Went to 43p yesterday. I think you and a few others bought some.

It seems clear both that and this have a very good future.

[grupo guitarlumber] 31/3/2017 09:24

CORRELATION


Any ideas as to when gas prices will substantially uncouple from oil prices

[djmoggy] 31/3/2017 09:21

Darren81 - I think the plan is to ship c200k in June and a further c200k in October. Given current stock, production of 1100bopd and 6 month production till 2nd tanker shipment this would mean upto c430,000 can be shipped in total by start of Oct.

Using last years netback of $38 this would equate to $16mill (this figure is net revenue less export tax).

As a comparison total revenue net of export tax in 2015 from Arcticneft was $7.9m

Sadly we just have to wait till June 2018 to see the above figures reflected in the 2017 Annual report :(

Edit - I would expect the equivalent figure for 2016 Annual report at around $9million (which we will see in June) - so a sizeable increase.

[calmtrader] 31/3/2017 08:45

surprised no follow through from y'days RNS...I personally thought it was very good..what I want is multiple location drilling and thats what we are getting...Komi spudding s/be in a week or so...i think Komi will surprise to the upside...and of course some fracking and divs

[darren81] 30/3/2017 18:14

+100k by end of June at current rate of 1100 bopd, rough calculation gives

335k*$52 = $17.5 million in the coffers for one shipment!

obviously minus associated costs - but a much better return this year than last given the increased number of barrels / much increased price of oil

[chavitravi2] 30/3/2017 17:30

On the bright side, last August 225,283 barrels of oil was shipped and according to the rns we have 235,00 in storage already.

In regard to the rig, of course you are right, my confusion there.

[djmoggy] 30/3/2017 17:19

Chav - ditto.

What we can be certain of.
1. Petrosakh drilling team will be used - irrespective of existing or Chinese rig.
2. Existing Petrosakh 100 tonne development rig will be used for first drill.
3. New rig acquired from takeover of Arctic Oil is based at Kolguyev island (thousands of miles away) so that won't be used!
4. Unclear if Chinese (Jereh Group) rig hire will be followed up or plans determined by first drill success/failure.

On a positive note looks like management are listening to us.
Following the presentation I requested RNS clarification on the CPR and actual details on the drilling plans (I'm sure others would have done the same) - and heypresto they deliver which is unlike Urals of old!

[chavitravi2] 30/3/2017 17:09

Moggy, it would seem you posted as I was writing and you have much the same concerns with there reporting.

[chavitravi2] 30/3/2017 17:04

I don't feel they have been clear enough in regard the South Dagi drilling. Are they just hiring the rig using our team or a experienced Chinese team who know the rig?
Is our rig and team starting drill now?
Is it the newish rig we got thrown in they are using?
To me this is the usual vague UEN rns. Will they never learn.

[djmoggy] 30/3/2017 16:58

Good factual RNS - however a tad confusing where Sakhlain plans are concerned.

Here's how I read that section.

The way it has been worded negotiations are ongoing with Jereh group and it is still the plan to mobilise the rig come June/July to drill a well.

In the meanwhile the rig located at Petrosakh will be moved to South Dagi (assume a couple of weeks to move the rig between locations and a couple of weeks to make drill preparations at the target location) so by end of April we should have an RNS stating that the first well has been spudded at South Dagi. Given past performance this should reach target depth in around 3 months. So should have a drill success result/flow test news start of August.

Given the mobilisation and transit of the Jereh rig will be done June/July and with Prep work we should expect an RNS stating commencement of second well by mid August (completing mid Nov)

Finally if the option of drilling a second well using the Petrosakh rig is taken up (obviously dependent on success of the first) then there should be another RNS early Sept for spudding of this well with drilling outcome start Dec.

Or have i misinterpreted and it is a case of use Petrosakh rig to drill first well then take up an option on Jereh rig or continue with Petrosakh rig dependent on first well results.

Martyn/Chav - concerns about use of in-house drilling team can be somewhat (but not fully) mitigated given that geology at Petrosakh is fairly complex - although if memory serves me right mistakes made on one particular well (#52?) were downright criminal!

[jiggsyboy] 30/3/2017 16:27

Nice update.We all know what happened last CPR... Everyone and their uncle piled in for a couple of days

[chavitravi2] 30/3/2017 16:22

Mine too Martyn.