Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 19/9/2023 15:01

Revenue and PBT looks like hitting an all time high this year - just the B2C sector is bombed out as a recession is expected and people may cut back. Can't really do anything about it, just have to wait until sentiment changes and take the dividend. Hopefully in 6months we'll all look back and regret not buying more at this time, but I think I probably said something similar 6 months ago :-/

[kingfisher99] 19/9/2023 12:31

I cannot understand why the UPGS share price seems to creep up during trading and then fall sharply towards the end of the day with a general trend over the last few months downwards. Does anyone have any thoughts?

[tole] 19/9/2023 12:17

Big volume sold yesterday. Price dipping through 120 today.

[topvest] 14/9/2023 15:04

Only owed £63k by Wilko per the filed Statement of Affairs. Maybe insured anyway. 20% of VAT recoverable anyway. Better than most suppliers!

[2wild] 15/8/2023 14:45

At least the spreads improve at 1.5p compared to normal 5 to 7p.

Looks good value to me at any price below 170p.

[km18] 15/8/2023 14:44

UP Global Sourcing Holdings plc issued a trading update for the financial year ended 31 July 2023. Unaudited Group revenues increased 8% to a record £166.3m driven by exceptional growth at the Group's online division, where revenues were up 64% year-on-year, together with an improved sales mix. Revenue growth in the period was achieved with no overall price inflation helping to keep the Group's branded homeware products at prices which are attractive and affordable to consumers. Unaudited adjusted EBITDA increased by 8% to a record £20.2m, in line with market expectations, while unaudited adjusted PBT increased by 6% to £16.8m (FY22: £15.8m), also in line with market expectations. The balance sheet remains healthy, at the year end, the Group had a net bank debt of £14.8m (FY22: £24.3m), which represents a net bank debt / adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.7x (FY22: 1.3x). Valuation is attractive with forward PE ratio at 8x top quartile for the Household Goods sector. Current trading for FY24 is in line with market expectations. Share price lacks momentum at present, but UPGS is certainly a share worth monitoring for the longer run...

...from WeatlhOracle

[dope007] 15/8/2023 08:58

Good update but UK mkt will not reward it

[dr biotech] 15/8/2023 07:39

Decent update with a strong 2nd half. Growing company with a PE about 7, yield around 6%, with products aimed at the value end of the market in a coat of living crisis. Outlook inline.

Figures slightly ahead of the (previous) ED note. Hopefully a positive day, but this market seems a touch irrational.

[edmonda] 15/8/2023 07:36

Second half 15% sales growth beats expectations - new research report & audio summary here from Equity Development:

UPGS comfortably beat full year FY2023 expectations for sales revenue in a trading update released today, as H2 sales accelerated sharply to show 15% growth compared with 2% in the first half of the year. Importantly, this growth was achieved despite no overall price inflation as the group sought to sell its branded homeware products at prices that would be affordable to consumers. In our view, the ability of a consumer goods company to generate sales volume growth in the relatively mature economies of the UK and Continental Europe should be valued highly.

Profits were in line with expectations. Online revenues were notably strong and increased by 64% in FY2023.

With robust finances and a clear message that the UPGS brands are delivering brisk sales growth, we reiterate our 250p fair value for the shares.

[deanowls] 18/7/2023 05:41

Great to see Terry Leahy doing a tour of the HQ over on linked in!

[topvest] 17/7/2023 20:52

Quite a reassuring update, ahead of year-end. Timing may have been impacted by the EBT purchase, as maybe needed to announce before making the purchase.

[edmonda] 17/7/2023 07:39

"Debt reduction confirms financial strength" (new note from Equity Development:

UPGS announced a significantly better-than-expected improvement in its debt position today. Net FY23 year-end bank borrowings are expected be in the region of £15m compared with current market expectations of closer to £21m. The financial benefits of lower net debt in the current climate of rising interest rates are clear.

UPGS’s cash generation capabilities not only underpin its generous dividend policy (50% of net profits) but also enhance strategic flexibility. The company is not only able to weigh up the relative benefits of increased pay-outs to shareholders (e.g. a higher dividend pay-out ratio or share buybacks) but also to take advantage of potential acquisition targets on offer.

Today’s announcement reinforces confidence in both our own and consensus FY2023 forecasts being achieved. Our 29 March 2023 report commented that a £163m full year revenue figure would require double-digit growth in the second half. Given that UPGS expects its end-year FY2023 net debt:EBITDA to be 0.7x (vs. 1.3x a year earlier), we infer that the company itself shares our confidence. Second half sales growth clearly accelerated sharply.

A combination of strong sales growth and associated financial strength is central to the investment case for UPGS’s shares as the company strives to deliver affordable “feel good” branded products for every home. We reiterate our fair value of 250p; this valuation implies 1.4x EV/sales and 11.7x EV/EBITDA using an improved £15m end-FY2023 net debt estimate.

[kingfisher13] 15/7/2023 16:39

Apart from a couple of minor recoveries, UPGS has continued to slide since the turn of the year for no reason I can establish. I am aware they have changed auditors recently, but this has not affected the overall trend. Has anyone any thoughts as to why this is? They still seem to attract positive comments, but this is not being reflected in the share price.

[topvest] 30/6/2023 07:58

Well its a tad late in FY23 to change the auditor, particularly when they had no plans to tender as per the FY22 annual report. I suspect that BDO doubled or tripled the price as £82k seems very low. PKF will have a fair bit of work to do to get the FY23 audit done on a timely basis, although its a relatively straightforward group with only 2 subsidiaries. Anyway, as much as I like UPGS, I don't like this decision. BDO must have fallen out with them, most probably on fees. They should have tendered earlier in my view. Oh well, PKF still have 4 or 5 months to get the work done. Should be OK, but increases the risk slightly.

[robbnw] 21/6/2023 19:04

And it's superb dividend

[robbnw] 21/6/2023 18:09

LolWhatever but clearly you are a very astute guy with your three assumptions My investment is because I believe in the model If you don't my advice is move on Or do me a favour let me know what you do invest in so I can make sure I avoid

[toffeeman] 21/6/2023 16:00

>> robbnw

If you own over 100,000 shares in UPGS, then you are either too wealthy to spend time on ADVFN, because your investment here is no more than 5% of your entire portfolio;

or you are very stupid

or you are being economical with the actualite´

[robbnw] 21/6/2023 14:33

Now added again Over 100,000 now

[quepassa] 21/6/2023 12:37

Mike Ashley/Frasers Group has now acquired voting rights of 8.92% in Curry's - shortly after the acquisition of the 21% stake in AO. World.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[robbnw] 20/6/2023 11:35

Ive added more Bargain at this price

[quepassa] 16/6/2023 08:51

Frasers (Mike Ashley)rapidly increases new stake in AO World from 19% to 21.3%.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[doc martens] 14/6/2023 16:00

250p would be nice, can't see it happening anytime soon.

[edmonda] 14/6/2023 12:20

UPGS - "Innovating for growth"

UPGS hosted a capital markets presentation at the Exclusively Homewares exhibition in London’s Business Design Centre yesterday to discuss the upcoming re-brand of Salter as part of its overall brand rejuvenation programme. Having confirmed its expectations for FY2023 financial performance in a statement the previous week, prospects for a strong second half to the year remain in place.

UPGS’s belief that it will match market expectations in FY2023 is important. With an end-July year-end the company has significant visibility regarding the FY2023 H2 trading period. A £163m full year revenue figure would require double-digit growth in the second half, which would be impressive and something that the business is clearly confident of achieving.

Accelerated sales momentum in FY2023 H2, prospects of major benefits from a holistic approach to brand management and sustained commitment to serving the mass market with affordable “feel good” products for every home reinforce our view that fair value for UPGS’s shares is 250p. We base this view on 1.5x EV/sales and 12.2x EV/EBITDA.

Link to note with audio summary:

[buywell4] 10/6/2023 22:53

AO all about “adjusted earnings”. May do ok, may be illusory. Not of interest to me or I doubt many in this UPGS thread.. will keep it in topic (ie UPGS and not my other holdings) from now.