Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 14/12/2021 09:49

Not easy to hide out there in the smaller company buy and holds. Looking at some of the recent buys and adds to hold (SFR, NRR, VLX, SUP, IBPO), clearly not doing well with those, they're not moving a great deal or just continuing to fall. Considering the sentiment out there, it almost feels like every buy is going to take some short term hit, but playing the long game on a small allocation and trade everything else with stops.

Missed BMS, eyeing up CLX, DLAR and RCH though it is hard to not keep trading RCH like VLX.

CURY look interesting (if the market can look through the next few months), report tomorrow.

As for UPGS:

We sort of touched £2 but it didn't provide a selling opportunity as it wasn't a proper move. Hanging on with the view that some gyrations are almost inevitable. Cases of Omicron in China now and some natural further jitters on supply chain issues.

Even if they do the zero tolerance policy and lock down for a short period, it doesn't throw the fundamentals out of the window here and elsewhere. The only issues that would put me off would be some significant change in fundamentals on the back of another game changing left field event or a disorderly sell down in markets on the back of a leverage unwind.

Market:

It is almost a given that leverage event will happen, just no idea when!

Considering the selling (numerous corrections under the indices including the hyped tech shares, ARK and even crypto selling down) out there and the general mood, it doesn't strike you that the key index supports (how long can they congregate in the likes of Apple though? Crowded?) are going to break in the near term and that event happens.

The VIX has already spiked and come off and even a basic indicator like Fear and Greed shows poor sentiment out there. This all gives the indication that short term excesses have to a large degree been unwound and the indices would have fallen over already. They are very resilient.

There is still plenty of silly things going on though with digital land transactions hitting around $20million in a month in Decentraland and $100m in overall virtual land transactions in a single week in November.

I can't get my head around these things. I can see a virtual world and participation like they already do in assuming characters and conversing in the virtual gaming world's in the likes of GTA but splashing out on digital land like that?

Oooerr

It all feels rather bubbly but I could be very very wrong.

Time will tell.

All imo
DYOR

[quepassa] 07/12/2021 15:31

Seems to me like a good hire for UPGS. Very relevant experience and great pedigree.

A nice RNS announcement from his current employer at Franchise Brands also today:-

"Stephen Hemsley, Executive Chairman, commented:

"Chris has been a valued member of the Franchise Brands team throughout his nearly five years at the Group, and we are sorry to see him go. He has been a great colleague and contributor throughout his tenure as CFO.

"We are pleased that he will be staying with the business until after the announcement of the current year results in Q1 2022. We wish Chris all the very best with his new role."


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[sphere25] 03/12/2021 10:21

Had a little nibble. Noted a few buyers in size initially popping up around that 180p mark and some larger buy orders just under, and then a few more orders popping up today.

That has convinced me to have a little go for a possible short term ride back up over the £2 mark. Ordinarily I wouldn't have hesitated to have a go here, but there are clearly still alot of uncertainties out there.

However, a short term trade is a short term trade and the way these buyers are coming in to buy this dip suggests that UPGS is indeed in a stronger position to weather the storm....and because it can move so quickly I have FOMO! :-)

I would love for the market to be right that the variant isn't as scary as it appears and (from a market view point) that there is no material effect on business and supply chain issues won't be exacerbated materially....clearly I don't fully know and can only judge by the movements out there.

The overall resiliency suggests that could be the case and that must mean UPGS pings back over £2.

All imo
DYOR

[quepassa] 03/12/2021 08:48

Last month Howdens were extremely upbeat in their results about "pent-up" demand with customers spending more on their homes.

Today Wickes Group raise their previous profit guidance due to strong trading and pipeline/outlook.



Results and statements from both of these leading UK kitchen/home improvement retailers add weight to a very healthy market for household items.

Good sector back-drop and read-across.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[deanowls] 01/12/2021 14:27

They have momentum and weaker players will suffer first. Shipping I am finding is starting to ease compared with eight weeks ago. What excites me is in the briefings when they say they have stock in the way. They are confident and so am I, they have other markets in Europe to push into and have a model and connections to do that.

Crack on, this continues to be a buying opportunity and I’m waiting for a few division to drop this month to hopefully add at these levels.

Good divi whilst we wait also.

[sphere25] 01/12/2021 11:57

The eyes go wonky trying to keep on top of everything this week.

Intricate environment.

Ordinarily UPGS is a buy here for a push back over the £2 mark. The wider market has been given enough bad news this week to tumble big, and it hasn't. Clearly it could, but I think it would have done it by now. It would take something very bad now, particularly as we approach the seasonally bullish festive period.

That should mean it is back to focusing on the supply chain issues and central bank action. It seems like the market is comfortable with Powell's comments yesterday and other central bank comments on the trajectory of rates.

However...

This variant is clearly going to have some form of knock on effect on the supply chain issues and does that mean particular companies are now more prone to warning or warning again?

There have been alot that have warned, and others like UPGS have fared better, but how long can they do that if issues get worse. If this variant hadn't hit the headlines, then there was a strong argument for the likes of UPGS to weather them.

Clearly the market will look through the supply chain issues at some point, and bad news will get bought, but is it a case of particular companies get walloped first?

If you're looking out 10-20 years, you've probably got your festive hat on already and probably just chuckling away to us short term folk trying to work around the gyrations and dynamics of the market.

It actually sounds like the easier life, but where is the challenge in that! :-)

So for now, signals like big director buying or big institutional buyers coming into shares could be a way to ride some short term momentum higher.

The news from the proper companies begins to dry up from next week so probably worth sticking a few of those speculative high risk punts that have bullish news on the watchlist too. If there is another frenzy of buying like in GDR, then clearly quick lovely gains to be had, but only if the buying is very heavy.


All imo
DYOR

[sharesoc] 29/11/2021 22:13

In case you missed it, you can watch our webinar with Ultimate Products (UPGS) – 17 November 2021 here:

Full membership will be required to watch the recording. You can sign up for full ShareSoc membership here: hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/membership/full-membership/

[robbnw] 25/11/2021 17:01

Totally agreeGood company Good management Great investment Definitely a buy at these prices

[mcbabs] 25/11/2021 11:45

Completely agree. However I wonder if this sentence "significantly softer than we anticipated only eight weeks ago". I'm happy to hold and accumulate UPGS as I think they will navigate much better than AO. I think the possibility that it has got worse for AO in such a short timeframe of 8 weeks since the last update and that this might be the case for others that has spooked people.

[johnrxx99] 25/11/2021 09:30

QP - what AO?

[quepassa] 25/11/2021 09:14

I think the current supply chain issues are exacerbated with larger white goods (fridges/washing machines/cookers etc etc) than smaller kitchen and homeware items.

UPGS seem to be on top of matters and their recent results were realistic and down-to-earth about supply chain issues - whereas AO appear much more negative.

I think this is due primarily to type of goods. Not convinced that AO's somewhat downbeat outlook on this question is necessarily an accurate read-across for UPGS and their products.

Good Luck All.

Have started accumulating at these levels.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[johnrxx99] 25/11/2021 08:47

Buys showing as sells.

[johnrxx99] 25/11/2021 04:13

I beg to differ. Supply chain issues have been around for many months. What is new is covid spike in UK and Europe, the unrest in Austria and inflation speculation becoming reality. In China and SE Asia it's the property bubble and thus banks.

Anyway, the market is weak for the smaller companies and good news needed all round.

[dr biotech] 24/11/2021 19:15

I’ve taken a painful hit in the last couple of weeks, this was my biggest holding but it’s fallen back into the pack.

Supply chain issues seems to be the concern. Biggest difference between AO and here is that we have our own facilities, AO is almost entirely dependent on 3rd parties. When we had supply problems at work some years back we looked after our best customers and unfortunately let the less important ones down. Whilst I’m sure AO are a key distributor it may be that they get better pricing and are less valuable if the producers have limited supply.

[robow] 24/11/2021 15:49

nervy holders as in several small caps at the moment

[kingfisher999] 24/11/2021 15:06

I have been wondering why UPGS (and Lucecco) have been falling again recently. They both tend to follow similar trends, despite different product categories - but they have commonality in their dependance on the China supply chain.

UPGS (and Lucecco)have reported strong figures for the last period DESPITE the supply chain issues and have strong expectations for the near an medium term, so I am not sure this is the whole reason.

Anyone any other thoughts?

[mcbabs] 24/11/2021 10:16

I wonder if this drop has anything to do with ao world report."As we now look to the second half, we continue to see meaningful supply chain challenges with poor availability in certain categories, particularly in our newer products where we have less scale, experience and leverage. In addition, shipping costs, material input prices and consumer price inflation remain challenging uncertainties.As a result of these factors, the all-important current peak trading period is significantly softer than we anticipated only eight weeks ago."More concerns about supply chain issues since ao world says it has worsened since last 8 weeks

[epo001] 15/11/2021 15:08

I suppose sharesoc mean well but what is the point in repeating your previous post? The last two posts say exactly the same thing. You are so close to being filtered.

[sharesoc] 14/11/2021 20:22

Just a quick reminder that Ultimate Products are presenting at our webinar on Wednesday. You can register here:

[sharesoc] 07/11/2021 22:30

Ultimate Products shareholders and potential investors may be interested in our webinar on the 17th Nov. Andrew Gossage (Managing Director) will be presenting:

[ramellous] 04/11/2021 09:48

For some fun, there is a massive looking cup and handle looking to breakout on the 5 yr chart.

[quepassa] 04/11/2021 09:07

Excellent presentation. Not to be missed.

[deanowls] 03/11/2021 17:21

Could’ve done another 3m profit. Have a great stock position and loads coming in. Supermarkets happy, Poland and Australia start ups.

Only ten minutes in so far.

[ramellous] 03/11/2021 16:34

Here ya are