Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[buywell4] 10/6/2023 21:53

AO all about “adjusted earnings”. May do ok, may be illusory. Not of interest to me or I doubt many in this UPGS thread.. will keep it in topic (ie UPGS and not my other holdings) from now.

[quepassa] 10/6/2023 21:50

Thank you for being my echo.

Keep it up.

Glad to see someone is paying attention.

[buywell4] 10/6/2023 21:38

Oh look, another ramp for AO from Que passa


QuePassa - 10 Jun 2023 - 21:54:35 - 3081 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
Frasers Group ( backed by billionaire Mike Ashley) acquires a £75million / circa 19% stake in AO World from Odey Asset Management.

hXXps://news.sky.com/story/ashley-seizes-on-odey-crisis-to-snap-up-75m-ao-stake-12899844


Watch this space.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP
QuePassa - 21 Mar 2023 - 16:13:49 - 3064 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
AO. WORLD

18/08/22 RNS - FULL YEAR TO 31/3/23 GUIDED AT £20m-30m (adjusted EBITDA)
22/11/22 RNS - GUIDANCE INCREASED TO "TOP END OF THAT RANGE" of £20m-£30m
10/01/23 RNS - UNSCHEDULED TRADING UPDATE - FURTHER INCREASE GUIDANCE TO £30m-£40m
28/02/23 RNS - TRADING UPDATE AND YET FURTHER INCREASE GUIDANCE TO £37.5m-£45m


Cannot recall ever seeing three consecutive increases to earnings guidance with such rapidity.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP
QuePassa - 21 Mar 2023 - 15:06:08 - 3063 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
Ten days ago, Director Buying of 500,000 AO World at 66p.
QuePassa - 28 Feb 2023 - 11:11:19 - 3047 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
Take note.

Sector peer, AO World UP by 25% today on back of following RNS:-



Trading update and Increased Profit Guidance

AO World plc ("the Company" or "AO"), a leading online electrical retailer, today issues the following trading update, increasing our profit guidance for the year to March 2023.

Consistent with the themes set out in the trading statement issued on 10 January, we continue to see traction from the initiatives taken by the business to reduce costs and improve margins.

Margin improvement initiatives coupled with a continued resilient underlying customer base has driven higher retail gross margins than previously expected and we anticipate that this will continue for the remaining five weeks of the financial year. The steps we have taken to simplify the business and become more efficient have outperformed expectations and been delivered quicker than expected. Mobile RPI price increases have also been slightly higher than our prudent forecast.

Accordingly, the Board now expects Adjusted EBITDA (1) to be in a range of GBP37.5m to GBP45m for the full year, an increase to the previous guidance (2) that we gave in January 2023.
QuePassa - 10 Jan 2023 - 07:39:23 - 3012 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
Today:-

AO WORLD PLC

Unscheduled Trading update and Increased Profit Guidance

AO World plc ("the Company" or "AO"), a leading online electrical retailer, today issues the following unscheduled trading update for its third quarter, the three months to 31 December 2022, increasing our profit guidance for the year to March 2023.
QuePassa - 23 Nov 2022 - 17:57:11 - 2985 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
Sector peer, AO.

Up another 12% today at 68.5p.

Now approaching +40% since mentioned by me two weeks ago at 50p.
QuePassa - 22 Nov 2022 - 16:29:20 - 2983 of 3082 Ultimate Products,let's hope so - UPGS
AO.

+ 16% today

[quepassa] 10/6/2023 20:54

Frasers Group ( backed by billionaire Mike Ashley) acquires a £75million / circa 19% stake in AO World from Odey Asset Management.

hXXps://news.sky.com/story/ashley-seizes-on-odey-crisis-to-snap-up-75m-ao-stake-12899844


Watch this space.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[thorpematt] 07/6/2023 16:30

Yes with a 2024 PE of 8.0

Divi for 2024 here is 6% and twice covered by earnings.

One thing I like about UPGS is that most of its op. CF is converted - due to its very low need for cap-ex.

[dr biotech] 07/6/2023 06:09

Trading in line with consensus…


Last set of results said

“ Consensus market expectations for the financial year ending 31 July 2023 are revenues of GBP165.3m (actual FY22: GBP154.2m), adjusted EBITDA of GBP20.1m (actual FY22: GBP18.8m) and adjusted EPS of 14.8p (actual FY22: 14.3p)”

So we are on an adjusted PE of about 8.5

[patient fox] 01/6/2023 15:32

yes many medium sales in quick succession led to the drop.

[tiswas] 01/6/2023 15:22

only 2.4p though?

[joseph moran] 01/6/2023 13:16

Ex dividend today

[patient fox] 01/6/2023 08:53

Strange happenings with the trades here.

[epo001] 25/4/2023 09:09

Hey! Check out me adding another clown to my filter list.

[value_spotting] 19/4/2023 16:56

Check out my latest post on UPGS: hxxps://open.substack.com/pub/eddielloyd/p/ones-to-watch-ultimate-products-free?utm_source=direct&r=267k4u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[tole] 01/4/2023 06:28

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-diagnostics-bricks-and-switches/UP Global Sourcing Holdings (LON:UPGS) – 9.5 P/E And 5.3% Yield = CheapThe first half figures from this £123m branded homewares group for the six months to end January this year showed a minimal 2% uplift in sales at £87.6m (£85.7m) while adjusted pre-tax profits fell 5% to £9.4m (£9.9m).Earnings were 6% lower at 8.4p (8.9p), while the dividend was 6% higher at 2.43p (2.30p) per share.Consensus estimates for the full year to end July suggest £165.3m (£154.2m) revenues, with EBITDA at £20.1m (£18.8m) and adjusted earnings of 14.8p (14.3p) per share.CEO Simon Showman stated that:"We have delivered a robust performance, with exceptional growth from online, amidst a tough trading environment. Our amazing team has built a resilient and scalable business, based on a strong portfolio of homeware brands with a wide range of products and channels to market.The business has been tested by some of the toughest trading conditions and headwinds seen in recent times, but we are emerging stronger, more focused and more profitable than ever. This resilience puts us in a strong position to accelerate our growth as the macroeconomic uncertainty starts to clear. We therefore remain confident in the future prospects for Ultimate Products."At the group's brokers Shore Capital their analysts Clive Black and Darren Shirley rate the group's shares as materially undervalued and looking for capital appreciation in the medium term.For 2023 they estimate £166.4m sales, £20.0m EBITDA, earnings of 14.6p and a 7.3p dividend per share.For the prospective 2024 trading period they see £176.7m revenues, £21.4m EBITDA, 15.5p earnings a dividend of 7.8p per share.Analysts Chris Wickham and Hannah Crowe at Equity Development have current year estimates at £163.4m sales, £16.6m profits, 15.1p earnings and 7.4p dividend per share.For the coming year they go for £173.2m revenues, £18.2m profits, 15.4p earnings and a 7.7p dividend.They have a 250p 'fair value' on the group's shares.With the group's shares closing at 138p this has been a healthy Profile choice, they have even been up to 174p this year but have since drifted back with the market.Give it more time and I believe that they will more than double my selection price and then some.

[topvest] 29/3/2023 11:28

UPGS have managed a challenging H1 very well in my view. Headwind of retailer de-stocking across the board which has been mitigated by an unconstrained internet sales operation. It looks set to get back to growth in the next financial year. Debt levels sensibly being managed down after the excellent Salter deal.

[edmonda] 29/3/2023 06:32

Ultimate Products' interim results strongly suggest that the company is well placed for sales growth acceleration in H2 and to meet current market expectations. Online sales in H1 increased by 78% to represent 26% of group total, which is positive as this distribution channel has a smaller skew to H1 than others. Moreover, UPGS’s brands continue to demonstrate an ability to gain market share and grow through volume rather than pricing.

We maintain our view that the company’s current valuation does not fairly reflect UPGS’s three key growth drivers - brands, online & supermarkets distribution, and international. With external headwinds easing, an H2 acceleration is in prospect. In addition, growth is volume driven off a strong financial base. We base our 250p fair value / share assumption on an FY2023 EV/sales ratio of 1.5x, 12x EV/EBITDA and 16.6x P/E.

[tole] 26/3/2023 11:43

I've got it down as 29 March on sharepad as per the last trading update fwiw.

[thorpematt] 26/3/2023 09:59

I bought a few of these this week. Looks oversold to me and the chart I posted above is clearly a very big tailwind for profitablity.

I also think that UPGS is viewed as a "China stock". And that the slow recovery out of lockdown being made there has dragged UPGS down on sentiment. Of course the demand for UPGS product is not from Chinese consumers and so in reality it is not affected by the lacklustre Chinese economy.

In any event I a lookng for a long term holding here so we shall see what interims bring.

P.S company financial calendar says 29/4/23 for interims
BUT
the last TS said 29th March

Anyone know for sure?

[tole] 25/3/2023 20:01

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-on-the-way-up/UP Global Sourcing (LON:UPGS) – Less Than 9 Times P/E And On 5.5% YieldOn Wednesday of next week (29) the leading homewares brands group will be reporting its Interims for the six months to end January.Way back on Valentine's Day CEO Simon Showman told investors that:"Amidst a tough economic climate, we are delighted that our products, especially those that are energy efficient and money saving, continue to resonate strongly with consumers. Global supply chain disruption has now eased, which has improved stock availability and supported the growing demand from our online customers.Looking ahead, we expect that the current softness in global shipping pricing, as well as the partial recovery in Sterling, will provide additional relief against the ongoing inflationary backdrop.We are increasingly excited by the positive impact that our robotics process automation programme is having on our business.Our bottom-up, demand-led approach to automation enables us to concentrate efforts on the items that can most improve productivity, and this will ultimately enhance operating margins and drive an even better customer experience."The £114m group expects that the full year performance will be in line with market expectations.Analysts Clive Black and Darren Shirley at Shore Capital are looking for the group to report well upon the group's recent participation at the Ambiente Trade Fair held in early February at Frankfurt.Their estimates for the year to end July 2023 are for an uplift in sales to £169.1m (£154.2m), helping to push up adjusted pre-tax profits to £17.0m (£15.8m), taking earnings up to 14.6p (14.3p) and lifting its dividend up to 7.3p (7.1p) per share.Shore Capital foresees the coming year's revenues at £179.2m, with £18.4m profits, 15.5p earnings and a 7.8p per share dividend.The group's shares touched 174p in early February, but eased back with the recent market turbulence to 131p, at which level they appear lowly rated on les than 9 times earnings and yielding 5.5%.

[quepassa] 21/3/2023 16:13

AO. WORLD

18/08/22 RNS - FULL YEAR TO 31/3/23 GUIDED AT £20m-30m (adjusted EBITDA)
22/11/22 RNS - GUIDANCE INCREASED TO "TOP END OF THAT RANGE" of £20m-£30m
10/01/23 RNS - UNSCHEDULED TRADING UPDATE - FURTHER INCREASE GUIDANCE TO £30m-£40m
28/02/23 RNS - TRADING UPDATE AND YET FURTHER INCREASE GUIDANCE TO £37.5m-£45m


Cannot recall ever seeing three consecutive increases to earnings guidance with such rapidity.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 21/3/2023 15:06

Ten days ago, Director Buying of 500,000 AO World at 66p.

[simmsc] 14/3/2023 12:28

potentially the rising debt (but appears to be manageable). I think the 31st July results weren't that bad. I think they were quite good. Possibly mkt got ahead of itself.

[dr biotech] 14/3/2023 11:35

I think there were quite a few expecting a beat in the results rather than just "in line" - the trend/fad for air fryers perhaps didn't make as much difference as hoped? The results marked the high point in the SP

Seems to me to be a decent growing company on a moderate valuation - its a long term hold for me.

[simmsc] 14/3/2023 11:26

Can anyone shed any light on reasons why this has continuously been weak since beginning of Feb (apart from the obvious market weakness). Are there any company specific reasons?