Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 03/11/2022 10:01

UPGS will be on the Ian King live programme on Sky News. Programme Starting just now at 10am

[edmonda] 03/11/2022 07:46

UPGS - "Brands and resilience driving growth in FY2023" (new research note published this morning by Equity Development)

Strong progress for the key brands Beldray and Salter plus significant advances in supermarkets and online coincided with increased margins across-the-board and an improvement in UPGS’s net debt/EBITDA position in FY2022. Moreover, the company anticipates that the market’s profit expectations for FY2023 will be met.

Strong sales growth in supermarkets and international sales were confirmed by today’s data which reported increases of 38% (25% excluding Salter) and 22% respectively. Online sales were a significant beneficiary of the Salter acquisition and increased by 23%.

The current share price fails to capture three salient growth drivers (namely brands, distribution and international) of the business. We believe the company’s ability to cope with external headwinds has been proven repeatedly, alongside its well-executed financial resilience. Hence, we base our 250p fair value / share assumption on an FY2023 EV/sales ratio of 1.5x and 12x EV/EBITDA.

Link to full report:

[1pvh] 03/11/2022 07:32

Divi slightly better than I expected. Hope to hold these for a long time. Still decent value I reckon even with the 30% + increase in share price this week.

[ramellous] 03/11/2022 07:26

Dividend up 42%
Fantastic results. Hooray for air fryers

[robbnw] 31/10/2022 13:41

Amazing what a sunday times write up can do

[robbnw] 30/10/2022 22:42

Wow what a superb write up in sunday times today for UPGS

[robbnw] 18/10/2022 12:28

Hold and add where u can at this price

[ramellous] 23/9/2022 09:40

The Salter soup maker is getting a mention in the Daily Mail lol

[topvest] 18/9/2022 14:54

Yes, Que Passa - agreed, its really tough out there: in the US its now 6% for a 30 year mortgage and 4% for a 2 year fix here. However, it will not have too much impact immediately for those that are fixed. Personally, I'm hoping the BoE start to get some credibility back and do 0.75% to 2.5% next week which will have some positive impact on £. They need to get rates to the target zone fairly quickly, rather than their continued 0.25% "no balls" increases.

Its a mixed bag on Retail, but agree that generally negative. Ocado are doing badly - not suprising really as they are too expensive and have struggled anyway post pandemic. I only buy Ocado when they give me free delivery and £30 off which they do every now and again to keep me is a customer. Things like Dunelm are doing quite well.

[quepassa] 18/9/2022 09:17

Well, let's hope you are right but typical customers chasing budget brands are typically the ones who have the least disposable income.

Your point about mortgage rates is bang on target.

People keep talking about gas/electricity/fuel going up but the dialogue surrounding massive additional costs on mortgages has not yet hit the headlines. But it will. Soon.

If you have been paying Base + 1% (where Base has ranged between 0.01% and 0.75% for ages), your mortgage costs are going to double/treble when Base rates get hiked further.

Base was hiked in August to 1.75% and a further increase has been temporarily delayed but it's coming - and will push Base to more than 2%, with widespread predictions of 2.25%.

Someone with hitherto monthly floating-rate mortgage payments of £400 - could easily soon be paying more than £1,000.

These massive mortgage rate increases are very recent and have not yet started impacting as they took place last month.

Combined with surging fuel costs, rampant food price increases and now enormous increases in monthly mortgage payments - the outlook for the retail sector is bleak.

Evidence is mounting quickly.

Ocado has warned last week on falling sales. On Friday, Fedex - which many consider a barometer of global trade- also warned and cut sales forecasts by half-a-billion dollars.

It's a tough sector.

Good Luck All.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 18/9/2022 08:34

Not surprising though as everyone was cutting back at the prospect of £5k fuel bills. Maybe some bounce back from this sentiment possible, now we have a £2.5k cap, although still likely to be negative. Of course, interest rates going up to possibly 2.5% next week won't help but many are on fixed rates.
UPGS will have a slower year, but their products are at the budget end so they should be better placed than most consumer companies.

[quepassa] 16/9/2022 08:42

Uk retail/online sales in August fell at the fastest rate in 8 months.

A fall of 1.6% , much worse than City expectations of 0.5%.

Retail sales now 5.4% LOWER than a year ago.

[topvest] 15/9/2022 21:32

Well done on selling at 200p - probably the smart move short term. I'm sticking as this is a great company long term, but agree selling and buying back would have been a smarter move. For those that have moved out, don't miss the opportunity to get back in for the long-run. I suspect 2022/23 will be a flattish year at best. Forecasts largely reflect that. 2023/24 will probably be a better year. Long-term the trend is up, but its not going to be without the odd setback from time to time.

[dope007] 15/9/2022 11:54

Certainly out of favour for now but definitly on my radar

[quepassa] 05/9/2022 14:22

The reason I haven't been posting here recently is that I bailed out earlier this year around 200p in February at the time of the invasion. But have been watching/following with interest

Despite strong results, the direction of travel for the share price seems only one way. Graph looks dire.

And notwithstanding significant recent director buying, the share still seems caught in a vicious downdraft.

The swingeing increases in domestic energy costs are going to hit household budgets really hard - and in turn consumer spending. That prospect is spooking the retail industry for anything which is discretionary spending


As they say, don't just watch the company, watch the share price.


I think UPGS is a great company but when the sector tide is going out fast, it's difficult to swim against it.

GLA.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 23/8/2022 19:32

I think a number of "consumer" stocks went down today. All the bad news on energy prices I suppose.

[epo001] 23/8/2022 09:49

Why today's drop? Volume not especially high and no news. Buying opportunity?

[my retirement fund] 19/8/2022 13:45

my thoughts to, certainly no reason to be holding for now.

Certainly worth monitoring for the time being, eventually worth buying aswell...

[km18] 15/8/2022 13:45

UPGS issued a pre-close trading update today. Unaudited Group revenues increased 13% to a record £154.2m driven by the earnings enhancing acquisition of Salter, and a resilient performance of the core business, with underlying organic growth of 1.0% to £137.9m. Unaudited underlying EBITDA increased by 41% to a record £18.8m, underlying PBT increased by 42% to £15.8m, both in line with market expectations. Current trading for FY23 is in line with market expectations, while the balance sheet is solid, at year end the Group had a net bank debt/underlying EBITDA ratio of 1.3x. And all this despite disrupted supply chains and a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop. Valuation is reasonable with forward PE ratio at 8.7x. Share price remains in a 12-month correction, lacks momentum and needs to put in a floor. Certainly worth monitoring for the time being, eventually worth buying aswell...

...from WealthOracle

[riviera1069] 15/8/2022 08:42

Yep. Just added at 131.