Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 01/4/2022 00:04

Galatians 6:7

[buywell3] 25/3/2022 21:29

There is now a very real chance that Ru-sia will become a number one trading partner with Chi-nah

A major supplier of many commodities that the ROW may well shun

This of course comes with risk for both

Personally buywell now likes UK green investments only or those with a UK presence and located or also operating in the U-S of A or perhaps doing business with Japan or Australia or Canada

Minimize locational risk going forwards is the name of the game now as many price crashes have and are showing


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


dyor

[epo001] 23/3/2022 10:36

2905: China is possibly looking to lock in cheap energy for the duration, it may also take advantage of Russia's present weakness to grab territory.

[topvest] 20/3/2022 10:23

We have a lot more to worry about than our investment in UPGS if sanctions are made against China! It won't happen in my view as China are remaining neutral. The Western world is entirely dependent on China. China would also destroy millions of its own jobs if it couldn't trade freely with the West. In any case, UPGS are no doubt diversifying their manaufacturing partners and are better than most in managing the situation. The valuation is looking very attractive here again for a growth stock.

[johnrxx99] 20/3/2022 03:07

I am growong increasingly concerned about China's attitude to the West as it sides with Russia. If sanctions are imposed the first reaction will be to Chinese exports to the West.

[ramellous] 16/3/2022 09:39

I asked the question about sourcing here on a webinar upgs did a year or so ago. They did mention looking at Vietnam as well as China. I’ve worked in manufacturing all my career, albeit for the Japanese. Our productivity in the UK was higher than most of their global operations.

[buywell3] 15/3/2022 20:51

Having your products made out of the UK can come with risk from a variety of directions

We are now in dire straits and times they are a changing just like the chart here

Sometimes it is better to invest safe and close to home if products can be sourced there or from closer by so as to limit transportation costs and supply issues due to coming sanctions as the world order takes a turn for the worse

buywell will add the chart which shows a death cross





The story so far


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com



Could it be that investors might be turning a tad more nationalistic regarding their investments ?

Perhaps BREXIT has had some effect in this --- after BREXIT the share price quickly halved



Chart is rolling over of late


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

The USA has gone more nationalistic as they have identified the exposrt of jobs and production overseas does have consequences

boris whilst in power is learning as fast as he is able about these things --- Great Britain is an island nation --- which is why we still exist

[dr biotech] 15/3/2022 13:44

Not sure how much difference that makes, the plastic cost should only be a small part of the cost, it’s more likely the shipping costs, squeeze on incomes and the potential lockdown causing issues. Management have been smart here so medium term think we’ll be ok.

[dope007] 15/3/2022 12:32

Prices of plastics are rocketing unfortunately with Ehtylene going through the roof

[kingfisher99] 15/3/2022 11:09

Some breaking news in China. They are being hit by another covid outbreak with high numbers. Lock downs are starting to be put in place. Will be interesting to see how this develops and the impact on UPGS.

[grahamburn] 14/3/2022 21:24

You are at it again, km18. Historic news from oraclewealth, rather than up-to-date.

Losing count of how many boards you're popping up on - always with last year's figures and comments.

PS Thinking about filtering you very soon unless you can encourage me to visit your website by proving it is up-to-date.

[km18] 14/3/2022 14:48

...from last year...

Company overview:UPGS was established in 1997 and has evolved in one of the leading companies dealing with design, development, and management of brands in the homewares sector. They have headquarters in UK, Honk Kong, Guangzhou, Belgium and Germany. On top of that they have working relationships with 300 retailers across 38 countries. The group is aiming for a fine symbiosis of low cost, investments in quality and continuous expansion of supply channels. The absence of acquisitions shows organic approach for growth.
Interim results for the period ended in January presented good profitability with revenue and PBT up by 11.4% and 18.9%, respectively against the H1 2020. Furthermore, they have reduced the net bank debt/EBITDA, and increased the dividend by 45.7% to 1.69p.
Latest trading update is in advance of the annual results for the FY21 and is playing the same positive symphony as the previous. Revenues are up by 37% for £11.2m, ahead of the £10.8m consensus. PBT surged by 37% to £11.2m, based on an 18% boost in revenue to £136.4m. The underlying PBT seems to be around 4% ahead of the market consensus as per the report. The only fly in the ointment is the part about net debt. We know they have completed the acquisition of Salter in July, for which they took funds from their debt facilities as net bank debt increased by £15.1m. However, the acquisition is said to have used £17.2m, and they are offsetting the debt “news” with “strong operating cash flows”, which leads to the thought of only £2.1m of CFO, and that is questionable from more than £10m of profit. Proof of what the CFO is, will come with the final reports later. The order book is ahead of this period last year’s figures and “current trading remains in line with expectations”.
Equity Development has revised upward the FY21 to 10.5p and FY22 14.1p. These figures with today’s price at 224p make for a forward P/E of 15.9. The dividend yield is also expected to be healthy, as Equity Development are  predicting 5p for this year and 7p for FY22, for a dividend yield of 3.1%.

Short analysis (Interim on 31/01/2021 while we wait for the annual):

Cash went up from the previous period 8x, from lack of debt retirements
Net debt did not change materially
CA/CL = 1.44
Cash ratio = 0.089
Interest coverage (Annual 2020) = 12.12
P/S TTM = 1.53, which is on the weaker side of the sector
BV ps TTM = 19.5, growing at 35% CAGR
Operating profit £7.44m, 16% above the same corresponding period in 2020
Gross profit Margin = 22.8%, in line with January 2020...


...from WealthOracleAM

[kingfisher999] 11/3/2022 13:20

After COVID hit, the share price sank to a silly price which meant it was a bargain. I don't see it falling that far this time but I feel it has some way to go yet. There will be great opportunities again to bag a bargain in what is a fundamentally well run business.

[dope007] 11/3/2022 08:41

kingfisher999 The biggest Raw material increase issue they will have is the rise in price and availability of plastics. They are rocketing and just gone onto weekly pricing for plastics this week. Not good for any of us.

I like this company and will continue to watch

[thorpematt] 09/3/2022 21:25

yep, pretty good summary I think.

On the upside I would say at least 3 things:-

1. If consumers face headwinds they tend toward more budget products (this could include some of UPGS brands)

2. A lot of their products are not large discretionary (which are hardest hit)

3. UPGS management are IMO excellent at navigating and reacting quickly to headwinds etc.

[kingfisher999] 09/3/2022 20:08

Its been very quite on here recently, with a lot to about.

Firstly, my thoughts to those who have REAL problems due to Russia's actions.

I feel UPGS are suffering from unfortunate timing. As their business started to pick up from covid, other factors have come in and hit their share price, more recently that being Russia. It seems to me there is going to be a major headwind holding back the business for the forseeable future. As oil and gas prices are rocketing and various minerals become harder to source because of the sanctions on Russia, then prices for everything (components/products will increase dramatically and components containing metals in demand will be more difficult to source. On top this shipping will be a lot more expensive affecting not only products, but the money potential customers have in their pockets as their purses/wallets get squeezed hard.

All I can see at present is a downward slide for UPGS (with occasional gain), like today.

On the other hand, there are lots of shares that will be benefitting from the current climate - oil companies for example.

Anyone else got any views, and where the current opportunities lie.

[johndoe23] 14/2/2022 11:08

Completely agree, especially regarding Volex

[sphere25] 14/2/2022 10:50

On a different day this rallies higher on that statement especially as UPGS are one of the first to say something like this "conditions have recently shown early signs of improvement and the Board is cautiously optimistic that the worst is behind the Group".

Can't recall recent company statements over here being that bullish but clearly sentiment is bruised out there. Folk are liquidating, stops are getting hit and buyers won't likely step in until there is more clarity on Russia and the possible detrimental knock on effects.

Then we don't know for sure if Central Banks have got it very wrong in underestimating inflation and may now cause some significant economic decline with their tightening.

It isn't just here at UPGS that sentiment isn't great.

VLX have pretty much said they are trading in line, can manage supply chain issues and are looking for big acquisitions. Considering how far it has fallen, on a more bullish day/less certain geopolitical environment that rallies 5-10% on that statement.

But this is the nature of markets and we have to navigate these issues. One eye on Putin and not being as dismissive as markets have been, has served well.

Could end the week with indices flying back higher or getting an absolute bruising too - no idea!

Interesting geopolitical watch though and how the powers that be are strategically positioning across the world chess board.

All imo
DYOR

[dr biotech] 14/2/2022 07:42

Seems decent enough. But I’ve had a few companies drop on inline statements, let’s hope this doesn’t.

[edmonda] 14/2/2022 07:35

#UPGS’s achievement of 13.7% revenue growth in the first half of FY2022 and anticipation of full year growth in line with current expectations implies close to a 20% advance in sales revenue this financial year. Moreover, growth sustainability should be supported by a combination of effective brand management and enlarged distribution capacity. The company should also be credited with its ability to record steady revenue growth despite supply chain headwinds. There is now cautious optimism that the worst is behind the Group.

We retain our fair value of 275p per share for UPGS. Were the shares at this level, EV/sales would expand to 1.6x and EV/EBITDA to 14.0x - representing a premium to the company’s peer group. But such premiums are justified, in our view, by the demonstrable effectiveness of UPGS's leading brands, notably in the supermarket and online channels. Full note here:

[mattafc] 26/1/2022 14:48

Tipped somewhere?

[quepassa] 12/1/2022 08:14

Sector Feedback.

Dunelm Group release record quarterly sales figures today for the Christmas trading period.

Up 13% from previous year and issues "profits materially ahead" guidance.


Good sector read-across for strength of home-wares market.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[tomps2] 17/12/2021 10:21

#UPGS discussed by Richard Leonard in latest PIWORLD interview:
37m22s
hxxps://www.piworld.co.uk/education-videos/piworld-interview-with-richard-leonard-winners-and-losers-of-2021/

[sphere25] 14/12/2021 09:49

Not easy to hide out there in the smaller company buy and holds. Looking at some of the recent buys and adds to hold (SFR, NRR, VLX, SUP, IBPO), clearly not doing well with those, they're not moving a great deal or just continuing to fall. Considering the sentiment out there, it almost feels like every buy is going to take some short term hit, but playing the long game on a small allocation and trade everything else with stops.

Missed BMS, eyeing up CLX, DLAR and RCH though it is hard to not keep trading RCH like VLX.

CURY look interesting (if the market can look through the next few months), report tomorrow.

As for UPGS:

We sort of touched £2 but it didn't provide a selling opportunity as it wasn't a proper move. Hanging on with the view that some gyrations are almost inevitable. Cases of Omicron in China now and some natural further jitters on supply chain issues.

Even if they do the zero tolerance policy and lock down for a short period, it doesn't throw the fundamentals out of the window here and elsewhere. The only issues that would put me off would be some significant change in fundamentals on the back of another game changing left field event or a disorderly sell down in markets on the back of a leverage unwind.

Market:

It is almost a given that leverage event will happen, just no idea when!

Considering the selling (numerous corrections under the indices including the hyped tech shares, ARK and even crypto selling down) out there and the general mood, it doesn't strike you that the key index supports (how long can they congregate in the likes of Apple though? Crowded?) are going to break in the near term and that event happens.

The VIX has already spiked and come off and even a basic indicator like Fear and Greed shows poor sentiment out there. This all gives the indication that short term excesses have to a large degree been unwound and the indices would have fallen over already. They are very resilient.

There is still plenty of silly things going on though with digital land transactions hitting around $20million in a month in Decentraland and $100m in overall virtual land transactions in a single week in November.

I can't get my head around these things. I can see a virtual world and participation like they already do in assuming characters and conversing in the virtual gaming world's in the likes of GTA but splashing out on digital land like that?

Oooerr

It all feels rather bubbly but I could be very very wrong.

Time will tell.

All imo
DYOR