U And I Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 09/3/2016 16:25

Funny watching the algo trades going through every 10 seconds, and every time the bid gets hit another 3840 goes up!

[citymohawk] 09/3/2016 13:15

hey spooky - can you explain this please?

"prospective realisations of outstanding commitments..."

Also on UAI, I came to realise that this wasn't being played as per my initial suspicions. Whilst I got out a few weeks back it certainly was not because of the company, rather the brexit threat and a very hard lesson for me to take my head out of the balance sheet sometimes.

My take is that the industry is being priced on a threat to EU money flows into the UK market. This makes more sense why the BR and hedge funds are protecting their exposure. I'm going to now sit on cash till we get a decision in June.

[eeza] 09/3/2016 12:24

Ennismore buying - over 3% now

[badtime] 09/3/2016 11:50

Think I'll wait a bit

[skyship] 09/3/2016 10:45

elm - thnx for that...

[elmfield] 09/3/2016 10:30

And that you have been good at!

[skyship] 09/3/2016 10:28

spooky - sorry, always difficult/impossible to initially assess the degree of expertise of another Poster. Last time I held such a discussion on PE it turned out that the other party was confusing PE with VC - that sector has by and large been an unmitigated disaster, ergo one of the best investment rules - Never let Tax advantage cloud an investment decision!

Anyway one last thing to state is that my PE Trust investments have all been geared to those in voluntary liquidation mode - CDI, DNE, HPEQ, LMS, MTH & NRI. In Post No.29 on this year's JDT thread I suggest APEF could be next - see link below. So essentially I am buying into voluntary liquidation plays - as per many on the SL thread. You may find that of interest too.

[spooky] 09/3/2016 10:06

UAI - I really don't like the company, but everything has a price, just not sure what it is in this case :-o)

[mad foetus] 09/3/2016 10:04

ah well, sorry for trying to tell you how to suck eggs then!
I'm keeping an eye on UAI - it clearly looks undervalued but I have lots of property exposure and am a little wary about the overall property market at the moment, so I can't decide whether to buy in or not.

[spooky] 09/3/2016 09:58

Thank you for the replies. I am not exactly sure how to reply but i am directly involved in a number of private equity investments, so i am familiar with how the whole thing works. I would not make any new direct PE investments at this stage of the cycle and i believe that prospective realisations of outstanding commitments are discounted in current valuations. Perhaps i am a little too negative about the medium term economic outlook.

[mad foetus] 09/3/2016 09:20

spooky,
I would just add to sky's comments that in a sense the sector performance doesn't matter in PE. All the time PE companies are buying, improving and selling companies. Usually that cycle will take between 3-7 years. But the key point is what price they buy at and what they sell at. PIN had its results this morning where they note that disposal prices have dropped, but so have acquisition prices. And as Sky says, acquisition multiples are nowhere near as volatile as for public companies.

The real risk with PE is that of liquidity, that everyone seeks to sell at the same time: when that happens unbelievable bargains open up - look at 2008 to see the sort of rebound you can get. But for anyone seeking to hold for the long term, it is one of the best asset classes, which is why PE is usually the biggest investment held by the big global investment trusts like F&C and Witan.

[skyship] 09/3/2016 09:09

G'morning Spooky.

I strongly recommend the PE thread...and not just because I started it!

Without in any way wishing to sound patronising (because certainly not meant), with Private Equity the clue is in the name - PE Trusts primarily invest individually and collectively in PRIVATE companies. As Guy Hands was explaining on Bloomberg TV a few days ago from the SuperReturn Private Equity conference in Berlin, the Industry as a whole tend to target companies on prospective earnings multiples (PEs) of under 10; so stretched valuations in the public sector don't unduly concern. Perhaps search for the interview.



In the meantime this extract from the PE Header may help you further:

====================================================

APPENDIX from Edison Report: What is private equity?

PE describes long-term investment usually, but not always, in companies that are privately owned. From our discussions with PE managers, we found most managers aim to produce returns over periods from 5-10 years (or across the cycle) which are likely to be 5-10% greater than those available from investing in listed equities. To achieve this end PE managers tend to focus their investment on businesses with strong growth potential and/or where greater efficiencies can be achieved through operational improvement. FTSE 100 Companies that were originally PE-backed buyouts include Compass, Capita, Hays, Shire etc.

PE covers a very wide range of situations, from venture capital (financing investment in start-ups and companies at an early stage of development), through growth and replacement capital (minority investment in established, profitable companies), to the outright purchase of large and mature quoted companies – the ‘leveraged buyout’. Some funds of funds will invest across the spectrum depending on investment opportunities. Among tradable listed private equity companies in Europe, over 90% are investing the majority of their assets in management or leveraged buyouts

[spooky] 09/3/2016 07:59

SKYSHIP - Why would you want to buy into PE trusts when we have just had a 7 year bull market where listed equity values have trebled(forget the FTSE)and some PE is up 10 times?

[skyship] 09/3/2016 07:39

CJ - 10% is my MAX other than in very exceptional circumstances; such as ahead of the Tender by LMS last December.

May well add; though at the moment 100% invested having bought into the two PE trusts APEF & DNE.

[cousin jack] 08/3/2016 19:36

Thanks for your reply Skyship. Clearly you firmly believe that the shares will recover when BR have finished reducing. I am therefore curious why, given that belief, you are not adding below £2.00 with the expectation of making a profit rather than simply breaking even. Is it that a 9% holding in a stock must be a level you simply will not go above in any circumstances ? Even when so clearly believing the price to be a short term anomaly ?

[elmfield] 08/3/2016 19:16

Last time I bought it was lower,
In this climate I will wait.

[my retirement fund] 08/3/2016 18:50

May take a few myself at 180.

[skyship] 08/3/2016 17:47

Hi CJ. Why BR should be selling these down to such a bizarre level is beyond me - they are now at a 35% discount to the likely end Feb'16 NAV to be revealed in the Prelims at end April.

I though 220p was the base; then I though 200p surely had to hold; but now down at 195p! 180p looks to be the final support for a 40% prospective NAV discount (I say prospective, actually historic to end Feb'16). Richard Upton must be itching to get in there for a few more; but of course in purdah until those Finals are out.

I too am itching to add; but have a 9% allocation at cost; and frankly will just be happy to see them back to breakeven at 230p. That level should be a perfectly reasonable target when BR call time.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[tiltonboy] 04/3/2016 17:56

SKYSHIP,

Watching and waiting.

[spooky] 04/3/2016 16:46

Thanks SKYSHIP and bench2, sounds reasonable, big falls in the big names.

[skyship] 04/3/2016 16:43

Another 941k traded today! Surely after a few more days like this BlackRock will be history - certainly hope so, at the moment a rather bleak spot in an otherwise healthy portfolio...

Tilts - did you get some cheap stock today, or are you still hoping for 190p?

[skyship] 04/3/2016 13:12

spooky - take a look at Post Nos 190/191 etc on the CP+ thread.

Other than UAI, which have fallen due to the exceptional circumstances of BlackRock selling down their holding, the biggest fallers have been the large, London-centric blue chips - BLND, LAND, GPOR. They specifically have suffered due to apparent selling by the Sovereign Wealth Funds, esp. Singapore, Norway & Qatar.



I also agree with bench2 in Post No.171 above

STEVE - I am no accounting expert, however I believe revaluation is not an accounting requirement. UAI choose not to revalue development projects, so there is latent NAV upside as projects complete and sell. LXB, by example, revalue Work in Progress...

[bench2] 04/3/2016 10:27

Spooky , Prop sector is very London focused , and has been sold off / avoided as the sector is deemed to be the biggest loser on Brexit . If the bookies are right ( Oddschecker/Politics ) and we stay in the EU , the sector will have the biggest bounce on Friday 24 June , and will hopefully make up all the lost ground and more .

[stevenlondon3] 04/3/2016 10:05

Good morning SKYSHIP. I am trying make sure I understand property accounting. Am I right in that as a development company around half UAI's property assets fall under inventory the other half in long term investments. The former is not revalued as its available for sale while the latter is revalued.
This compares for example with St Modwen where the bulk of its property assets, including development, are categorised as long term so that revaluations flow through the P&L account.

[cousin jack] 04/3/2016 10:03

Chart indicates likely next leg down to c. 180. Unfortunately I got back into this much too early at at average 229 ..... Hope I can be brave enough to average down when the opportunity comes !