U And I Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 08/4/2016 13:31

CJ - as I said to hpcg - if you worry about a holding, surely best to ditch it and move on. Only another 1500+ UK-listed companies to choose from!

When you do so - don't look back, as these are likely to be at least 10% higher at the end of the month...

[speedsgh] 08/4/2016 13:26

Bromley regen scheme running up to two years late -

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A landmark regeneration scheme in Bromley town centre is running up to two years late, Building can reveal.

The £90m St Mark’s Square development was originally meant to be completed at the end of last year but has now been pushed back to at least winter 2017.

When finished, the development will comprise a landscaped public plaza surrounded by a cinema, several popular chain restaurants, a 130-bed hotel and 200 private and affordable apartments.

Sources close to the project said the main contractor, McLaren, is currently in negotiations with the developer, U+I, regarding the scheme and that a new completion date has not yet been agreed.

As Building went to press it was unclear whether the delay was connected to the change in ownership of the scheme, after original developer Cathedral was snapped up nearly two years ago by rival Development Securities to form U+I.

When contacted by Building, McLaren declined to comment. Building was awaiting a reply from U+I as it went to press.

On Monday (8 February), McLaren’s website said the development, formerly known as Bromley South Central, was due for completion at the end of last year.

Less than 24 hours after being contacted by Building, the contractor updated its web page and removed the completion date. It now says the project is “under construction” and has not provided a new completion date.

U+I’s website says the developer is “anticipating the opening of the commercial element by the end of 2016 and the residential in winter 2017”.

It lists Bromley council as a development partner but a spokesperson told Building the council has no financial involvement in the project and no taxpayers’ money is being spent on it.

Cathedral won a contract from the council to redevelop the site in September 2010, which was formerly a 1960s multistorey car park.

Construction started on the 2.4-acre site in April 2013. The foundations of the development and the building structures have been completed but no other visible progress appears to have been made.

Guy Hollaway Architects and Studio Egret West are the architects.

[verulamium] 08/4/2016 12:52

They're on a go-slow in Bromley on the St Mark's square site they inherited from Cathedral. It was all originally supposed to be finished by the end of 2015. They took the whole of January off by the look of it and since then have been going at snail's pace. At least Cathedral tried to smooth talk the locals while making their lives misery, but U&I have given up on any form of communication (although there's so little work going on that the locals aren't too worried these days!). Is cashflow so bad that they can't afford the brickies, or perhaps U&I have realised that it's completely the wrong thing in the wrong place and are looking to offload it?

[jlo10] 08/4/2016 12:27

Presumably all these gains will push NAV up (either through more cash or through reinvestment) and make the discount even wider?

[eeza] 08/4/2016 10:42

Thank you, speedsgh.

Yes, very unlikely to be gains of £16m+ from Edgware, imo. Need £8m to beat last year.

[speedsgh] 08/4/2016 10:30

eeza - £4m for Deptford was already included in the £38m referred to in my post 236.

I have no idea what size profit is likely to have been booked from Edgware Rd or whether this will enable them to match last year's trading gains of £45.7m. Unlikely?

What is clear is that it appears highly unlikely that they will meet their original guidance of £54.7m trading gains for the year just ended.

All will be revealed soon enough.

[eeza] 08/4/2016 09:51

Adding to speedsgh post

Total was £38m + undisclosed Edgware Rd
Last to be added was £4m from Deptford making £42m + Edgware Rd - so need £3m+ from Edgware to beat last years £45m.

[cousin jack] 08/4/2016 09:44

Given Churchill's comment that "an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" there is no doubt you qualify Skyship !

For myself I shall approach the resuts as a pessimist - certainly not adding to my position and still considering exiting it a la HPCG.

[skyship] 08/4/2016 09:34

speedsgh - sorry, never replied to yr excellent 15/03 Post. Mainly because have really rubbish internet connection which makes research and page switching an extremely laborious task. Installed a new router yesterday - so far so good, but service still very in/out from our WIFI provider!

[skyship] 08/4/2016 09:30

jimbo - yes, there have been some great swings to play here. Always done very well in the past, but this time around I bought back in far too soon.

They have been affected each time by large institutional trading activity.

# The Jun'11-May'12 sell-off was due to liquidation of underwriter's stock from the 2010 placing

# The 2013 rise was down to The Quantum Fund purchase

# The 2014 sell-off was down to the Quantum Fund exit

# The 2015 sell-off is down to the BlackRock exit

IMO UAI has been affected by sheer weight of money movements rather than any cyclical factor. Sure, commercial property has always been subject to at times savage cyclical moves, no more so than 2007/8. At the moment propcos are slowing down on their commitments in London; but elsewhere in the UK, yields are still compressing as commercial property appears to be the only asset providing secure high yields

In 3weeks time this will all have seen so obvious!

[speedsgh] 08/4/2016 09:21

jimbo - Your thoughts re this year's gains pretty much tie in with my view posted here on 15/3 -

[jimbo3352] 08/4/2016 09:10

Back in December the company noted that this year's development gains/trading profits were £30m to date. Since then there have been £6.3m announced gains plus the practical completion of phase 1 of 399 Edgware Road. Adding in something for Edgware Road and any unannounced gains, this doesn't look too bad against last year's record figure of £45.7m

For me, the best thing about UAI is the degree of volatility which has occurred regardless to a large extent of the underlying performance. I've been quite lucky with my timing of buys/sells and am happy to await the results.

[skyship] 08/4/2016 07:39

Results confirmed for Thursday 28th April

[elmfield] 07/4/2016 20:50

Just remember it is property!
As with stamps,coins, gold, house building, it goes in cycles and we could be in danger area, remember the 70's anyone?
I remain out.

[shauney2] 07/4/2016 20:47

SKY,i remember you mentioned this a while back on the NRR thread.So i have been keeping an eye it.
The chart playing out,well below NAV and Miton buying with the results not far away has got me very interested.

[eeza] 07/4/2016 20:39

MRF - Sky was referring to selling his previous top-up of UAI for a small scalp, after taking account of SD.

[hpcg] 07/4/2016 20:28

Sky - I've not moved on, but I have re-packed my bag because I can still see refugees streaming past.

[my retirement fund] 07/4/2016 17:50

Sky. Stampduty so scalped 89p.Sorry I have not the faintest clue what you are talking about.

[skyship] 07/4/2016 17:11

"Finally it is easier to take a 6% loss than a 15% or a 25% loss."

Very true - I'm now nursing a 20% bookloss on UAI; but expect to recover quite a bit of that before the month is out.

St Modwen is down due to the very specific circumstances of substantial exposure to high value residential development in London - where the Market has most definitely turned.

REITs turned into the New Year and now may show value again. The falls are mainly London orientated; whereas provincial plays are still seeing rising values dur to further yield compression.

We'll see where we go from here. I agree 3weeks is a long time to worry; and if one worries about a stock - the best thing is to sell and move on.

[hpcg] 07/4/2016 15:40

Yes - 3 weeks is a long time. Had it been a week I would have held on. Selling into results is not normally a good signal. Nor is the downward move restricted to UAI, St Mowden and Capital and Counties also heading down. REITs are similar. The chart looks awful and has resumed heading down and is on the cusp of breaking support. Finally it is easier to take a 6% loss than a 15% or a 25% loss.

[skyship] 07/4/2016 15:27

hpcg - could you possibly expain your thinking behind the decision to sell now @ c182p just 3weeks ahead of the Finals?

[hpcg] 07/4/2016 15:11

eeza - I was going to write that I have some thinking to do as I can get out now for a negligible loss. Instead I got out now for a negligible loss.

[eeza] 07/4/2016 14:35

Slowly leaking lower.

Like a limbo dancer.

[skyship] 06/4/2016 18:03

jlo - quite right - this plunge has surprised the directors just as much as the rest of us. Tomorrow may well buy back the small top-up I sold last week.

[jlo10] 06/4/2016 17:27

You would like to think so.
Some might say 180 is a support level - but the steep decline and the MAs crashing through each other on the way down have been nasty to watch and it's difficult to have any technical confidence that the decline has stopped.
But if the results are anything like as expected then it's got to turn sometime.

And worth remembering I suppose that the directors have purchased nearly £600k since June last year at prices way above the current share price