Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[eipgam] 08/5/2012 14:08

'tip of the iceberg' from their broker... 'pinching ourselves at these results' from O'Hanlon... has further good news ever been better signalled?

[ben chod] 08/5/2012 13:54

All's well again at Tullow

Having been swept along with the market's bloodbath on Friday, Tullow Oil was attempting a recovery today thanks to news of a drilling success.

The blue-chip driller was left at the summit of the top-tier index following yesterday's announcement that it had come across more oil in its Ngamia-1 well in Kenya.

Although the company has yet to say the find is commercial, its share price shot up 53p to 1,522.5p as City analysts reacted bullishly.

Brendan Warn of Jefferies said that, if it wasn't for the group's previous successes in the country, the result would have " 'company maker' potential".

Meanwhile, analysts from Morgan Stanley, one of Tullow's corporate brokers, claimed the announcement was the "tip of the iceberg", and kept their "overweight" recommendation.

"The Ngamia exploration well in Kenya has not even finished drilling yet but has already encountered significantly more oil than expected," they pointed out, adding that it "significantly [boosted] the likelihood of commerciality".

It was a definite contrast to Tullow's decline on Friday, which saw its share price shed nearly 6%.

That was exacerbated by its admission that it was plugging and abandoning a well off the shore of Ghana after disappointing drilling results.

[eipgam] 08/5/2012 10:53

Gary... that's a bummer. You're not the first to lose on an e&p punt... my XTR looks doomed.

[sanks] 08/5/2012 10:37

Put Sheila in to do battle. I couldn't wait any longer and will put in more poodees as i see fit.

1 poodee - 1528

Hope it helps
Sanks

[85gary] 08/5/2012 10:32

I see cgx eagle-1 was not the best result eipgam!

Migration, oil shows, water, 30 day overun, 100% CGX bill, appear in an RNS and CEO has been pushed on his sword with a placing to follow....8-(

On a positive note, got to be in to win.......so on to the next cgx guyana drill....plus jaguar result later this year.

Meanwhile, Kenya is looking good!

[eipgam] 08/5/2012 09:59

Slept in..... I could be an MM if I could get up early.... the % rise is as expected really.

[oilretire] 08/5/2012 09:21

Reaction as expected really given wider market forces. & It's an unproven well in terms of flows etc. But it is great news for the basin & as they say value will out in time........

"36% surely" I hope that comment wasn't in relation to TLW?

[dougdig] 08/5/2012 08:53

Market distinctly underwhelmed by news - sods law is really with us today!

[pr4w2b0y] 08/5/2012 07:28

36% surely, but by the law of sod who knows.

[bogotatrader] 08/5/2012 07:21

Africa Oil, TLW's 50% partner on block 10BB in Kenya that has encountered another payzone was up 36% yesterday on TSX Venture on the back of this news.....

[bogotatrader] 08/5/2012 07:15

How much will they be marked up today?

[togglebrush] 08/5/2012 07:13

RNS confirms news - Ngamia-1 well in Kenya Rift Basin discovers further oil

[ben chod] 08/5/2012 05:21

targetdepth not reachedyet so could be more exactly how big is this field

Martin Mbogo, Tullow Kenya country manager, told a news conference the company expected to reach the well's targeted 2,700 metres in the next four to five weeks.

[strollingmolby] 07/5/2012 22:14

Would be lovely to see such a breakout, but don't forget the impact of the events in France and Greece this w/e. Markets will probably be marked down first thing...

[bogotatrader] 07/5/2012 22:02

nice 100p-120p breakout tomorrow would be great......

[mike740] 07/5/2012 21:49

Base of a symetrical triangle. hoping we breakout the right way gents.

[eipgam] 07/5/2012 21:45

as good a guess as mine

[bogotatrader] 07/5/2012 21:43

Olivert....yes, there was 100k after hours buy on thursday at 1520p there were also tree other large block trade buys at just below 1500p...

My guess is that stock was oversold from 1520p-1530p level on friday afternoon on back of market falls following release of US job stats....if you say 1525p is correct level of tullow prior to 10BB block rns news which adds 5% from that level then we have about 1600p at some point tomorrow...all imho.....

[olivert] 07/5/2012 21:39

Did someone buy 100,000 shares at £15.20 at 16.48 on Friday 4th May?

How did they know?

GLA Long termers
Olivert

[tomgorham12] 07/5/2012 21:26

No five per cent is around 80p, which would take us back to around £15.50.

[bogotatrader] 07/5/2012 21:09

5% is 75p up so taking the stock to thursdays level of 1550p....

[eipgam] 07/5/2012 20:50

I suspect not as much as it has added to the AOI mcap. My guess is around 5% but it could be more to reflect the drifting of the last few days. Could also be more as this is further proof of TLW incredible strike rate... 80% this year so far. 74% is the worst s.r. of the last 3 years (

AOI increase = CAD 550m = £341m....

So maybe not even 5%?

But, I haven't really got much of an idea....

[cashandcard] 07/5/2012 20:38

BogotaTrader,

Not sure, but just posted this on AOI for a comparison of Net Pay in Mahogny-1 Jubilee discovery well:

"In excess of 100m NET PAY so far at Ngamia......


Just to compare with net payzone with Mahogny-1 (first Jubilee discovery well):

18/07/2007: "The well, which is drilling in water depths of 1,320m, has been drilled to a depth of 3,683m and has to date, encountered a gross hydrocarbon column of 270m with 95m of net stacked pay"

Tullow need to come out and give an idea of just what ball-park the resources should be after these discoveries.

Cash