Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[ben chod] 18/4/2012 10:41

Ive grown quite fond of him lately itslike having a little pet around

[3pon] 18/4/2012 10:38

Oh Eipgam you are awful but I like you.

[eipgam] 18/4/2012 10:09

Aye... and if he doesn't close his short soon, his pot of pennies will have sankalot

[mccracken227] 18/4/2012 09:59

thanks eipgam i thought same inane ranting.

[mccracken227] 18/4/2012 09:15

Sanks... are you really Elsworth.....i hope this helps?

[mpclag] 18/4/2012 08:06

I do trade and am waiting for a drop

[keya5000] 18/4/2012 07:37

24thedough, you surely cant be that simple,come on man you state in previous posts you have held this some time, you must have some theory why the share price and mcap have got to the current levels?

The answer is a simple yes to both but I really think Premium Bonds would be a better alternative.

Sorry but I find it quite alarming that people can be invested in stocks with so little comprehension of what they are doing.

[24thedough] 18/4/2012 01:19

simple question from a simple man. does tlw make money from discovering economical viable oil and hence improve the sp, or does the money not start coming in until the oil is being sold with tlw a partner in this part of the procedure?

[85gary] 17/4/2012 20:59

Not going to be easy pulling Uganda, Kenya, South Sudan and Ethiopia together but it will be an interesting six years or so......when are you planning on getting to $14 Sanks?

[85gary] 17/4/2012 20:48

I'll try me best.....

[sanks] 17/4/2012 20:33

If some of you more astute ramping poodaays can ramp it high enough, i will load up some more no brainer shorts, and subsequently will be able to take me nob off the table a tad earlier at circa £14.50 instead.

I await your help
Sanksalot........exit target remains £14

[ben chod] 17/4/2012 19:31

if you have deeppockets you can trade this share mpclag how much are you trading here

[eipgam] 17/4/2012 16:31

Good luck but you do realise that Kenya news is due soon?

"We are really pinching ourselves with these results."

and I have copied this from elsewhere.... who also copied it from somewhere else....

baffins - 16 Apr'12 - 20:14 - 329 of 339

Very interesting comments from TheMerlion on SH:

Have seen the presidents official announcement a few times but never really noticed his exact comments at the start of the announcement regarding the exact depths of the find.

Tullow stated on the 26th March that they had "encountered IN EXCESS of 20mtrs net oil pay"



Africa Oil also stated on the 26th March that thay had "encountered OVER 20mtrs of net pay oil"



So the obvious fact is that MORE THAN 20mtrs of net pay oil has been found by this initial discovery at a depth above 1,041mtrs.

Now, lets pay close attention to the comments of Mr Kibaki where in the video below he clearly states beginning at 0:35secs "This weekend Tullow Oil, which has been propecting for oil in Block 10BB in Turkana County discovered oil in Ngamia-1 well at a depth of between 846 and 1,041mtrs. They established over 20mtrs of what is techically referred to as oil pay"



Tullow, Africa Oil and also Mr Kibaki all sing the same hymn that MORE THAN 20mtrs of net oil pay has been found but what Tullow and Africa Oil did not tell us was exactly how much has been discovered YET.

Mr Kibaki has kindly informed us that Tullow had informed him that oil has been discovered from between 846mtrs and 1,041mtrs which is a range of 195mtrs.

Now, I am under no illusions that we have 195mtrs of oil here within this initial discovery but what I do know is that we have more news to come and the fact remains that there is MORE THAN the initial 20mtrs of net oil pay above 1,041mtrs which both companys have already stated.

I have a feeling that the first 20mtrs could be much more.

[mpclag] 17/4/2012 16:20

Im out-will get back in on any dips

[mpclag] 17/4/2012 16:08

ahh the spike!

[85gary] 17/4/2012 11:11

Background stuff Ghana.

Big money being provided.

[mpclag] 17/4/2012 08:49

I forgot to mention-I believe there will be a general market spike up in the next two weeks before a minor summer correction. AIMHO

[mpclag] 17/4/2012 07:18

I reckon you will have to wait until May- I have reduced and will be totally out of all stocks shortly.
Hopefully the market will have its normal crazy summer upset and I can buy back for 10-20% under what I sold for.

[sanks] 16/4/2012 15:13

I still await an exit at £14
I have no reason to believe Mrs Market will not give this to me. I trust her. She is my friend. We are bonded with friendship, shagship, love, lust and trust.
Money is just a common denominator. It brings us together. I trust she will pay me what is rightly mine. Thank you Mrs Market, i await with highest respect and lust, and will continue to show you my patience and my tool.

Sanksalot.......exit target remains £14

[85gary] 16/4/2012 13:36

For general East Africa interest. The bit that caught my eye is the proposed export routings and refinery location proposals.



I see that bribery allocation is settled out of court.

[sanks] 15/4/2012 19:13

Thats some very powerful q's monkeymagic, you must have 3 brain cells in one place and 2 shagger cells protecting the 3 brain cells.

Answers to your q's:
1- originally there are 2 poodees to every poodaa, but with QE you can multiply them by the factor of 3 and then add a loola
2- yep, they are derivatives of financial shagorams, but not latin. They derive from every day financial shaggers in the city, and are commonly known as poodee poodaa.
3- Poodee only chucks one piece of wood, mainly a 4 by 2, this is only done in extreme poodee towards brokers who fail to book orders of clients playing the game like they don't want you to play.

I hope the above helps with my exit target of £14
Sankslaot

[supersturrock] 15/4/2012 17:46

TLW has also grown to be my biggest holding and I guess we will just have to get used to the fact that Africa is not like the North sea. Just think of how much oil TLW will be producing in 3-5 years' time if it is still independent.

[24thedough] 15/4/2012 17:24

This leaves me wondering if I am right in having 50% of my portfolio invested in tlw despite having bought my first shares at £1

East African Business Week (Kampala)
EMAIL PRINT SHARE
Uganda: Kenya Oil Discovery - Is an Oil Refinery in Nation Still Viable?
BY JEROME MUKASA AND EMMA ONYANGO, 2 APRIL 2012
Comment (2)
ANALYSIS

Kampala â€" The discovery of oil in Kenya has raised a complex question - Is it still viable to build a refinery in Uganda or not?

Following Tullow Oil's discovery of oil in the Ngamia-1 exploration well located in the Turkana County in north western Kenya, different schools of thought have cropped up with many claiming that Uganda's oil sector may lose out to Kenya.

It should be noted that the discovery made in Kenya has not yet ascertained whether the oil is of commercial viability. That has not stopped skeptics though from doubting Uganda's viability for building a refinery. For many the idea of a pipeline to the coast may have to be revisited.

The well in Kenya was drilled to an intermediate depth of 1,041 metres and was successfully logged and sampled. The oil found, according to a statement from Tullow oil, has similar properties to the light waxy crude discovered in Uganda, though Uganda's is closer to the surface at around 800 - 900 metres.

One school of thought suggests that Kenya's find may to some extent be a game-changer because the country already has a refinery, though old and currently operating at half capacity, and also has pipelines and other infrastructure in place.

The question many are posing though is whether Uganda still needs to build a refinery when the one in Kenya can just be upgraded to cater for the entire region.

This comes on the back of an agreement signed between the government of South Sudan and Kenya to have a pipeline directed to the Mombasa refinery. This, according to industry analysts, complicated Uganda's desire to build a refinery because it (Uganda) had hoped to refine South Sudan's oil.

Ms Irene Batebe, the Petroleum Officer-Refining at Uganda's Ministry of Energy and Mineral development, however, disagrees saying that studies for the setting up of a refinery in Uganda that were done in 2010 had shown it was viable to construct a refinery in Uganda given the low refining capacity in the region. "The region's total demand is estimated at 164,000 barrels per day and yet the region has only one 70,000 barrel refinery at Mombasa that is also operating at half capacity," Batebe said.

"If you look at Uganda alone, oil consumption in 2010 was at 21,000 barrels per day and yet the supplies are expensive and often unreliable. A refinery in Uganda would save the situation," Batebe told the press during the ministry's interface with the media in Kampala last week.

Batebe also added that the refinery would be developed as a Public Private Partnership and that 29 square kilometers of land had been earmarked for the refinery.

"The study recommended a phased approach to the set up of the refinery and a small one capable of producing 20,000 barrels per day would be set up first at a cost of $600m, then later on one capable of producing 60,000 barrels per day would be set up at a cost of $2billion," she said.

Mr. Honey Malinga, the Assistant Commissioner Geophysics in the Petroleum Exploration and Production department at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, says the decision to have a refinery in Uganda was done after a joint discussion between the heads of state of East Africa.

"The issue of the refinery didn't come up yesterday; it has been around for sometime. The heads of state of the EAC in 2007 agreed that in order to have security of supply, a study should be carried out. It was done by the EAC and it found out that we should have more refineries in the region. "Against that background, Uganda did a feasibility study. So it doesn't matter whether we have two or more refineries in the region provided they are here to help us," Malinga said.

The decision to have a refinery could have been appropriate at the time since Kenya had not yet discovered oil. One thing that is clear is that Uganda does not have money to build an oil refinery much as it would want one on its territory.

It is apparent that the same players in Uganda's oil industry are also in Kenya oil exploration and it is highly unlikely that a company like Tullow or China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) or Total would go ahead to build a refinery in Uganda and another in Kenya, assuming the later quantities are viable.

The Uganda case becomes complicated in that the amount of oil discovered so far would only last for some 20 or 30 years making it not feasible to build a refinery at a whopping $2 billion.

To make matters worse there is a likelihood that as peace returns to Somalia, many companies which had earlier been granted licences to explore for oil will throng the country and in the absence of infrastructure, the cheapest and easiest alternative is to ferry the oil by sea to Mombasa, get it refined and distributed to the market.

This then puts Uganda in a dilemma in that whereas Kampala may want a refinery on its soil, it has huge interests in Somalia since together with Burundi they have sacrificed a lot to pacify that country.

But at the same time Uganda would like to reap from the benefits of a prosperous Somalia, the way the united States has reaped from Iraq. But this could mean supporting a move to have Somali oil refined at Mombasa which is against Kampala's interests.

One thing that is certain is that oil companies do not care about the opportunities a refinery would bring to Uganda or any country. They are only interested in getting profit and if we are to go by the rules of commerce, the more profitable venture would consequently attract more investment.

Then there is the issue of Southern Sudan. The world's newest nation has already signed an agreement with Kenya to build a pipeline and transport its oil to Mombasa for refining.

This prospect together with the newly discovered oil (assuming it is viable) and the possibility of discovering oil in Somalia could warrant a new refinery in Mombasa.

The mere fact that Mombasa has the advantage of being an international sea port renders it a more viable venture for any investor.

But a section of industry experts have backed the idea of building a refinery in Uganda saying that transporting the oil to Mombasa would be very expensive because of the nature of Uganda's crude (which is waxy) since it would require a heated pipeline.

Their argument is further strengthened by the fact that since oil exploration is being carried out on the DR Congo side of Lake Albert, a refinery in Uganda would provide her neighbour with a closer and cheaper alternative to have its oil refined.

Apart from a pipeline, Uganda could opt for a railway which would serve multiple functions including carrying crude to Mombasa.

Kenya still has advantage since it already has a refinery in place and is not landlocked like her East African counterpart. This means that if Kenya found oil of commercial viability, she would fast track her infrastructure ahead of Uganda. Kenya also has several options since it has proximity to a coastline and could opt to export oil as crude.

Malinga argued that the discovery of oil in Kenya would help the region share ideas and infrastructure from a wider perspective. "Kenya has been in this longer than Uganda and have drilled more wells than Uganda. We have been promoting ourselves as a single bloc and so as a region, we are happy that they have finally struck oil. We would therefore like them to fast track so that whatever infrastructure we have in the region can be shared," he added.

Uganda's oil and gas sector though remains more attractive to investors given the discovery rate is at 90%.

As the debate rages on whether to build a refinery, a pipeline or a railway in Uganda, it boils down to one fact; the money. Any investor would like assurances that they will get maximum value for their money. The mere fact that Uganda does not have the money to put up a refinery makes it more likely that Kenya may be the most viable option.

Their case is made much stronger in that a refinery in Uganda would be assured of business for some 20 or 30 years yet that in Kenya could still be useful even if the oil dried up in the entire region since it would still be needed to refine crude imported from elsewhere as the case is now.

But as the saying goes whoever pays the piper calls the tunes. It boils down to who has the money to decide where to build a refinery.

Simple economics seems to favour Kenya, but it will be Tullow to answer the riddle. To build the refinery in Uganda or not will remain the question.

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Tagged: Business, East Africa, Kenya, Petroleum, Uganda


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