Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[ben chod] 29/3/2012 17:32

at the start of theyear finncap had a sell rating withatarget price of 1000p theyhad slightly more credible reasons than the poster here still his post are very telling

[rochdae] 29/3/2012 17:24

Sanks is just an idiot, probably not even got a position.

[bushwhacker] 29/3/2012 16:38

Sanks- or whatever - seems you have more than one name- if you have nothing constructive to say, please stay silent. If you can please show me where or who has been ramping TLW, I would be pleased to know. This is a FTSE 100 share and i am sure the likes of you would not be able to influence the share price one iota. Not a penny share!!

[supersturrock] 29/3/2012 16:33

Am still holding from £2.50 a share so not much to complain about.

[sanks] 29/3/2012 15:57

Some of you more stute ones must be hurting after this major ramping and ramping!
Thats why i always ask Sheila after Cathy has done her bit.

Hope i'm helping

[sanks] 29/3/2012 14:32

Its nicely and poodaaingle doing a podee poodaa to below £14
Hope its helping
Sanks

[sanks] 28/3/2012 20:56

Phillis
Sheeped

[phillis] 28/3/2012 20:45

Sanks
F iltered

[ben chod] 28/3/2012 18:47

I wantone of those tullow oil samples

[sanks] 28/3/2012 15:54

Sanks Bush, but like i said, this is a "no brainer" for me...you could call it a pocket top-up, while i wait other opportunities :-))

I love Mrs Market, she's a nice tart!

Hope its helping....initial target remains below £14
Sanks

[bushwhacker] 28/3/2012 13:41

sanks- I wish you luck with your short, but don't get too greedy!! Historio P/E does not reflect the future, and dividends are not why funds invest in Tullow.

[sanks] 28/3/2012 09:50

Yielding less then 1% with a PE of over 20..someones having a poodee poodee laugh!!
Looking for that loola drop towards £9.50
Sanks

[ben chod] 28/3/2012 09:40

lots of excitement generated by kenyafind

[85gary] 28/3/2012 07:52

Background stuff about possible pipeline routes. Early days for sure, but interesting.

[oh poodeenyo] 27/3/2012 11:47

Bushy, i somewhat agree with your poodee summary, but clearly the chart is showing a technically weak point in this area, hence my first ever short on TLW.

As per my calculations and Sheila's nod, i remain utterly convinced of a retreat below £14 for a start, but am looking at below £12 and £10 hopefully.
Either way, i will increase my poodays if the bubble continues.

1st poodaa at 15.91

oh poodeenyo

[bushwhacker] 27/3/2012 09:59

Clearly Poo you must short this stock then and good luck to you!! you may be on the wrong board- few rampers here, Poo, occasionally some posts on other minnows, obvious rampers. Tullow trades at a higher premium IMO because of it's success rate, and because the city likes the company. Hardly a Simba, 10m capital! Follows here, the Numis broker note, or part of it, they have a target of £14. Most negative of the notes I receive. I think £9.50 is just a dream!

Ngaima-1 not a huge leap from Loperot - but still a positive: The Shell Loperot-1 discovery (1992) found 13m of net oil pay in thin shallow sandstones. Tullow's shallow discovery announced today appears to be similar to that at Loperot, however, no detail was provided on the net to gross pay ratio so it is hard to know whether thick or thin sand packages were encountered. Shell's deeper objective (Lokhone sandstones) at Loperot-1 was found to be water bearing and risks remain to Tullow's deeper objectives at Ngaima-1 set to be drilled next.Bluesky upside intact: The Ngaima-1 prospect had a relatively small pre-drill resource estimate (85mmbbl gross P10) and was partly de-risked by the 1992 Loperot discovery but has the potential to increase Tullow's understanding of several basins that lie on trend with the Sudanese Muglad basin and the Lake Albert Rift Basin. Tullow believe that seven basins of similar size to the 9,000km2 Lake Albert Rift Basin lie on Tullow's expansive 100,000km2 Kenyan acreage. Blue-sky (with follow-on success at Paipai, Mbawa and incorporating high case resource estimates) we see up to 70p/share unrisked upside. The Paipai-1 wildcat is scheduled to be drilled next in the Kenyan programme with a 2H12 spud date.High impact E&A - watch our for Guyana: . In Guyana, Repsol is preparing to drill the Eagle-1 prospect (Eocene/Turonian) on the Corentyne licence and Repsol/Tullow are to target the Turonian Jaguar prospect (result in August 2012). The two prospects share the same Cenomanian source but target different play types. In our view, success at Eagle would be a positive read for the Jaguar prospect which could open up a multi-billion barrel basin close to the recent Zaedyus discovery. Success at Jaguar alone would add 26p/share to our NAV.Valuation: At 1.36x Numis NAV (1100p/share) Tullow trades at a premium to a historical 15% premium to NAV. We need greater comfort on resolution of well completion issues at Jubilee and development plans in Uganda before taking a more positive stance.

[oh poodeenyo] 27/3/2012 09:32

Too many poodays on here ramping the poodaa off this stock. Clear problems to hold its own at these levels. A more poodee poodaa price of £9.50 is more poodaaingly justifiable if you take out the ramp merchants.
For that reason, me and Sheila believe this is due a good nobbing.
oh poodeenyo

[85gary] 27/3/2012 09:07

I wonder if the next 1700m on Ngamia-1 yield more surprises?

Agriterra up some 7% this morning just from reminding folks that they have an interest close by in Ethiopia.

Very interesting these East African plays.

I read a while ago the main problem Museveni saw was Kenya / Tanzania discovering oil, as that could have potential to take away investment. I probably have used the wrong words, but in essence he wanted to tell his government to stop messing about and expedite farm down / development as he could envisage other areas overtaking his country. Wise words as it is turning out.

Interesting times for East Africa, and hopefully very good for Tullow and the other smaller players in the area that have caught my eye.

[gulliver1] 27/3/2012 08:52

Tullow Oil (TLW LN)
Price: 1570p Rating: Outperform Issued: 30/06/09
Breakthrough discovery in Kenya
Job Langbroek
FACTS: Tullow announced on March 26th that its first exploration well onshore Kenya has discovered over 20m of net oil pay.
The Ngamia-1 well was drilled on block 10BB in the Lokichar Basin in Kenya - one of seven prospective basins in its Kenya
and Ethiopia portfolio - and discovered movable, waxy oil in good-quality Tertiary age sandstones. The oil was discovered at
an "intermediate" depth of just over 1,000m, with a further 1,700m or so of exploration drilling still to go before reaching
target depth. Tullow has 50% operatorship of Block10BB and Ngamia while Africa Oil holds the remaining 50%.
ANALYSIS: Besides the early win in the Ngamia well itself, the oil discovery is something of a surprise to the upside with
Ngamia previously described as a commitment well rather than Tullow's first preference for exploration drilling.
Based on a modest volume assumption, we carried a single prospect risk-weighted valuation for Ngamia (3p per share
unrisked), assuming the well could establish the presence of just over 20m barrels. However, the advent of liquids relatively
high in the system with nearly 2,000m still to be drilled, suggests that this well has much more value than our single prospect
assumption suggests. The news suggests that a working petroleum system is in place with net pay geometries that make an
analogue comparison with Uganda sensible.
So far, Uganda has an established resource of 1bn barrels. While the Kenya/Ethiopia basins are some ten times larger in scale,
the early guidance was that they would be in the order of one-third as prospective. Working through the numbers suggests a
global 3bn barrels resource target for the Kenya and Ethiopia campaigns. Clearly the Ngamai well represents a very good start
to Tullow's Kenya and Ethiopia multi-well campaign by de-risking other nearby prospects in particular and the play concept in
general.

[granitetim] 27/3/2012 07:51

I have heard "Rumours" that Keya is a cross board ramping buffoon..
LoL

[keya5000] 27/3/2012 07:46

mpclag, TDinvesting, Barclays International, most stockbrokers have an international section.

I have heard rumours that TLW and others have been tracking Simba and further talks/meetings would be expected at the current oil conference in Kenya that all the players in the region and many more are attending.

[mpclag] 27/3/2012 07:37

How can you trade those shares?
Agritera another uk play?