Better off with Ith , they pay 20 percent div !!! |
Perhaps Total will buy back Tullows future Uganda Production agreement,whats that worth? the production timeline keeps slipping now end of 2026. |
The price of the 25's responded well yesterday, the 26's not so well.... |
Interesting. Less than 24hrs after the trading statement, part of it is already in tatters:-
"Management plans to repay the 2025 Notes at maturity with a combination of cash in hand and drawings from the Glencore facility, and to refinance and simplify the Group's capital structure during the remainder of 2025."
So it sounds like the senior secured bondholders (2026's) are unwilling to be shunted down the queue by the lower ranked 2025's. |
"A group representing holders of Tullow’s $1.39 billion bonds due 2026 is working with lawyers at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton in a bid to push the company to come up with a comprehensive solution, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be named because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly. The 2026 notes fell 1.9 cents on the dollar to 91.8 cents on Thursday, the data shows."
from Bloomberg just now |
"Reserves reduction includes 22.4 mmboe of Group production in 2024 and a revision on Jubilee, where the estimated quantum of oil-in-place remains unchanged."
What utter nonsense Rahul comes out with. OOIP is irrelevant in this context, as less of the OOIP that is still there can be produced due to poorer reservoir performance than anticipated. Hence the -27m bbls on Jubilee.
Nov Trading Update "Water injection capacity has been increased to c.300 bwpd. Combined with further production optimisation activities, this is expected to mitigate the declines experienced in the second half of 2024."
2 months later "Water injection capacity on Jubilee was increased to 300 kbwpd late in 2024. Combined with an improvement in water injection system reliability, Tullow expects decline rates at Jubilee in 2025 to be lower than in the second half of 2024.
As for "production optimisation" on Jubilee, the more they optimise the more production declines! |
No evidence to suggest there's any issue with bond repayment, at least some good news. |
Agree, not great. Production has dropped off a cliff, well been heading south quickly. |
That RNS was obviously written by Rahul. paraphrasing "I'm a marvellous CEO, I've done a marvellous job and thanks to me the company is in a brilliant position."
Just concentrate on the facts.
2024 w/int oil production was 54.6K bopd (missing even the lower range of guidance)
2025 w/int oil production forecast: 44K - 49K bopd.
An apparent negative revision of -25.1 mmbbls of Jubilee reserves due to production performance. (It's probably larger than -25.1 as TEN reserves were up by an unquantified amount).
NPV10 reserves now only worth $2.5bn (a reduction of $900m from 2023FY)
OK Net Debt is apparently $1.45bn. That is the only positive. |
That's a worrying drop in production. 50k boepd. Yikes! |
 Update published
Financial
· The Group is considering disposals of certain non-core assets in order to accelerate deleveraging to its target of net debt of below $1 billion and gearing of less than one times. Disposals will only be considered where the level of proceeds would be accretive to both equity and leverage.
· 2025 capital expenditure of c.$250 million with c.60% allocated to Jubilee, c.30% to non-operated assets and c.10% to TEN, Kenya, and exploration and appraisal.
· Decommissioning spend of c.$15 million for UK; c.$15 million provisioning for Ghana and Gabon.
· Further cost base optimisation underway, with expected c.$10 million saving reducing annual cash net G&A to c.$40 million.
· Cash taxes expected to be c.$200 million at $80/bbl with payments weighted c.60% to the first half of the year.
· Hedge portfolio protects c.60% of forecast sales volumes at weighted average price of $59/bbl through the year, with c.60% of sales volumes exposed to oil price upside and c.40% capped at a weighted average price of $89/bbl.
· Forecast free cash flow of c.$200 million at $80/bbl, including c.$50 million of overdue gas receipts in Ghana from 2024.
· Management plans to repay the 2025 Notes at maturity with a combination of cash in hand and drawings from the Glencore facility, and to refinance and simplify the Group's capital structure during the remainder of 2025.
· The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO. |
Trading Statement and Operational Update will be on 30th Jan 2025 |
If it was an all share deal at todays share price Afentra would own 26.5% of the combo. Shows how poorly Rahul has performed considering McDade was booted out with nothing and had to start again from zero, from scratch. Can't see it happening though.
Maybe he's applied for the position of CEO? Lol!
One thing McDade does understand is the importance of putting together a decent slide deck. Something Rahul failed to do. I complained so many times to IR that their slides were rubbish! |
Be a laugh if Mcdade made a bid for Tullow lol |
Thx CCI. So former TLW CEO McDade was right to schedule his webcast for the same day! Deserves an LoL! |
Paul McDade (Afentra) is giving a shareholder webcast on 30th/Jan regarding their pretty solid trading update already released on 22nd/Jan. He's probably got wind that TLW trading update is out on the 30th (as he likes to embarrass TLW by presenting on the same day)! :-)
Either way IR have told 'others elsewhere' the TU will be next week (apparently). |
Trading statement should have been this week. |
Just a series of dead cat bounces trapping in more mug punters, “stretched balance sheet” have any noticed🤔8517;🤦ӿ95;♀5039; |
25 & 26 bonds holding steady
No significant movements to short positions(2.29% short) |
Let's speculate (and thats all it is) on 2025/1H production
2024 DEC Production was
JUB: 77,886
TEN: 17,544
Non-op (apparently) 10,500
There's (apparently) an FPSO shut down on Jubilee taking place in 1Q (say 15 days)
meaning corrected 2025/1H Jubilee production should be 166/181*77,886 = 71,431 bopd
So if the 2024 Dec rates stay flat (no decline) for the whole 6 months of 2025/1H that gives you
JUB: 71,431 Net 27,844
TEN: 17,554 Net 9,627
Non-op: Net 10,500
Tullow Group w/int: 47,970 bopd (doesn't include any gas).
Maybe DEC 24 was an outlier? Who knows?
Maybe increased Jub w/inj reliability will finally turn it around? Who knows?
Unless I've missed something? The above number seems really low? |
That's not "investment", it's gambling on this pile of dung. |
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