Anyone short ought to have handfuls of cash! Maybe connected to a long/short position on the expiring 25's Bonds which appear to be no longer listed on the Lux Exchange? |
Probably sorting out short positions,me smells burnt fingers |
Some interesting action at the close..... |
FCF which pays down debt is going to be a lower than previously guided due to weak production also softening oil price. So I guess there are some concerns about how Tullow will be able to refinance another $1.4bn of bonds that matures in 2026. (They are believed to be repaying about $495m of remaining 2025 bonds tomorrow). Basically they have a lot of debt + weak production. Not a good combo!
And I guess most longs have given up pending clarity about where this is going. |
But why is the share price so weak ? |
but tomorrow is payment day for 2025 bonds |
Full year results 25 March 2025 - according to their website |
Sounds good but the reality (so far) has been major shakedowns by the government on the only 2 operated offshore developments in the country. To make matters worse they don't pay TLW for gas and non-payments elsewhere in the powergen sector onshore lead to frequent power blackouts. Furthermore according to PIAC some monies that were supposed to be paid into the National Wealth Fund from Ghana dedicated cargos (C.$70M per cargo) has gone astray. OK there's a new government in power but they seriously need to change their ways as past behaviour has discouraged new investors from coming in. |
 Why Ghana Is Becoming the Next Big Player in Global Energy
Ghana aims to become a central hub for oil, gas, and renewable investments, as highlighted during International Energy Week in London.
With support from the African Energy Chamber, Ghana’s government is promoting an attractive investment landscape for global energy giants.
The country’s energy sector boasts 1.1 billion barrels of oil and 2.1 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, with 17 projects planned by 2027.
Major companies like Eni and Tullow Oil are actively exploring Ghana’s potential, focusing on projects like the Offshore Cape Three Points and Jubilee fields.
The Gas Master Plan seeks technological advancements and investment through 2040 and aims to reform royalty regimes.
A planned integrated petroleum hub will enhance refining and petrochemical capabilities, solidifying Ghana’s role in the energy sector.
Ghana’s strategic partnerships and reforms are setting the stage for it to become a premier energy hub globally.
Key stakeholders, like Eni and Tullow Oil, are already knee-deep in the Ghanaian oilfields, unraveling layers of untouched potential. Projects like the Offshore Cape Three Points and Jubilee fields showcase impressive figures, with production numbers painting a promising picture of wealth and opportunity beneath the Atlantic. |
The old Quo hit comes to mind...down down deeper n down. |
Yesterdays KOS presentation slide 12 had an interesting graphic on w/inj
Voidage replacement is on target (so far) this year which may explain the relatively steady production that tanker movements seem to suggest (similar to Dec, or perhaps a tad less). A minor positive perhaps? assuming w/inj doesn't drop off again. |
How many times have we heard this on Jubilee
KOS Results:
"Fourth quarter production versus guidance was impacted by insufficient water injection and reliability, and we are working with the operator to address these field management issues. To moderate decline ahead of the upcoming drilling campaign, a combination of high FPSO uptime, improved facility reliability and voidage replacement in excess of 100% are required, consistent with what has been delivered through the first two months of 2025."
It's fixed, then it's not, then it is, until it isn't. And so it goes on. Shipping observations suggest YTD is similar to Dec despite the (apparent) improvement in 2025 w/inj.
Is there a suggestion from Kosmos the problem is down to the operator? |
HEX leak from montana site
Boom |
Very, very oversold. Can avoid strong buy 25p target |
The 16.18 are all buys - shown as sales- that's a good sign . Mm's must think it's too low and are accumulating imoTarget 25p v soon |
Not sure it will be all plain sailing here, the 2026 bondholders are getting nervous and rightly so.
If a cash call comes there's a good chance of equity wipe out here. |
Canacord have a good track record. Strong Buy to 25p. IMO they will be there v soon |
Tullow Oil: Strong Buy Rating Despite Target Price Reduction, Highlighting Long-Term Growth Potential |
Iain Gilbert
Sharecast News
20 Feb, 2025 18:57 20 Feb, 2025 18:57
Broker tips: Tullow Oil, BP, Shell
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered their target price on exploration and production firm Tullow Oil from 35.0p to 25.0p following the group's recent trading update.
Canaccord Genuity said Tullow's trading statement illustrated some of the challenges related to the Jubilee site, the company's primary producing asset.
The Canadian bank expects it to take "a little time" for Tullow to gain greater clarity on the optimum development path for the field but said it also believes the Jubilee risk profile has increased.
"Alongside those critical operational issues, Tullow has some balance sheet work to do - a planned note repayment ($492.0m, maturing March 2025) and a more significant refinancing ($1.38bn notes, maturing May 2026). The first repayment looks covered by cash and untapped liquidity; the second presents greater challenges, in our view," said Canaccord Genuity.
"Tullow's equity value is very sensitive to small changes in Jubilee CoS and minor adjustments to oil price assumptions. That presents a significant valuation challenge, which even our quite tight parameter range (above) results in a wide equity valuation range of 14.0-36.0p. We continue to note the emerging and increasing risk around Jubilee and the possible implications for the company's planned refinancing in 2025."
JPMorgan Cazenove upgraded BP on Thursday as it took a look at EU oil and gas stocks and considered the implications of a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire.
The bank said it expects the sector to be viewed as a net loser as the market infers a peace deal bringing additional Russian pipeline gas flows into Europe.
JPM upgraded BP to ‘neutral’; from ‘underweight’ and lifted the price target to 510p from 440p as it said the outsized Rosneft option value mitigates cash cycle tensions.
"Rosneft optionality makes BP a prime ceasefire beneficiary," the bank said. "This presents a deleveraging ‘silver bullet’ which mitigates previously analysed cash cycle tensions."
Analysts at Berenberg raised their target price on energy giant Shell from 3,150.0p to 3,250.0p on Thursday, stating the group's strategy update would drive further free cash flow growth.
Berenberg expects Shell's core principles to remain the same, with a focus on strong execution, capital discipline and continued growth in free cash flow per share, along with a potential focus on boosting returns in its chemicals business and some of the "more challenged" low-carbon businesses.
The German bank noted that while lower capex "comes at the cost of potential lower growth in the longer term", Shell shareholders were "being well compensated", with the majority of the 13% FCF yield being returned via dividends and buybacks, which it expects to be maintained at roughly $14.0bn for 2025.
"The stock remains inexpensive, trading on 9.4x 2025E P/E and 5.0 EV/DACF," said Berenberg. "We adjust our estimates and EPS falls 2% for 2025E, due to lower integrated gas earnings, and increases 6% for 2026E due to stronger assumed downstream earnings. We increase our price targets to 3,250.0p and €39 (from 3,150.0p and €37.5, respectively) – based on a target 5.8x 2026E EV/DACF multiple." |
wellbutpoor,
That's a complete 180 deg sea change from your previous thoughts on the matter. But all credit to you for being open minded! |
IMO this will continue to drift lower until there is a robust successor to lead through the challenges of the 25/26 debt liabilities in a professional manner.
There's a real fear of debt overwhelm here which could render Tullow operationally paralysed. |
Clearly looking very much Undervalued & Oversold based on all metrics, now looking forward to a strong CEO at the helm here to ensure share price moves up lot closer towards fair valuations. |
Wonder why Tullow don't issue proceedings for payment, Ghana were quick to pursue tax even though it wasn't owed |
Can Tullow charge interest on the outstanding Gas Bill? must be circa $100 million outstanding.
Drawings from the Glencore facility can be reduced. |
Customisable watchlists with full streaming quotes from leading exchanges, such as LSE, NASDAQ, NYSE, AMEX, Bovespa, BIT and more.
Hot Features
Premium
