Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[subsurface] 06/4/2022 08:27

06-Apr-2 Barclays Overweight from 85.00 to 87.00 Reiteration

[martinfrench] 04/4/2022 08:48

i'm expecting, at very best scenario, a full carry and reduction to 8-12% for africa oil on kenya, and news is prob just around the corner.

as long as we get some value extracted from it, happy, and the project is better than most people think, though that pipeline is bloody expensive !

[subsurface] 03/4/2022 09:45

Hi Thommie Thanks for your post.

Ghana Gas

ENI have a contract in place to supply gas to Ghana until 2036 it was a take or pay agreement and the gas price is high as they put the infrastructure in place the world bank were also involved putting pressure on Ghana to take ENI gas backing out Tullows free gas leading to production problems and flaring.

Kenya Notes

Tullow says has spent more than $1 billion in Kenya they did a 25% farm down to Total and 25% farm down of block 12a to Dolenox energy
dont know how much the received.
26 August 2019 with the maiden lifting of 240,000 barrels of Kenya crude at an event presided over by H.E. Uhuru Kenyatta. This was the first ever lifting of oil from East Africa to the international market with KES 1.48 billion ($13,400, 913) revenue received – a major milestone in Kenya’s Oil and Gas industry. A total of 340,000 bbls was produced

Is Uganda the yard stick? Tullow ended with $1.25 per barrel and a small interest in production Kenya is much smaller so I would expect less.
Uganda and Kenya have many of the same problems Community /Security / land Issues and water, too many years to first oil.
Africa Oil talked about a part Cash deal but that may not be on the table now.
Interesting times. for me take some money if they can spend it on Ghana or debt reduction.

[fizzmiss] 03/4/2022 08:43

Don't expect much from the Kenya deal, like all other deals done before, all done at rock bottom sell off prices and highest interest rates possible etc; anything above a poor outcome will be a bonus.

[thommie] 02/4/2022 20:13

I just watched the last webinar of Tullow by Robert Hellwig, Head of IR and I really have to say that I was very impressed by him as a person. Although I knew about most of the infos from former presentations, he gave nice little details to some things in addition and was very competent in answering every question he got asked. I would really appreciate if he would do more of this webinars in the future as a shareholder of this company!

Kenya:
None before said it more clear. The aim is to farm down for a full carry to first oil. That means although no cash will come our way from kenya in the short term we might get a full carry on a reduced equity stake. As there is a need of 3,4 billion$ to first oil tullows stake requires 1,7 billion $ to do so. The stake Tlw will keep in such a scenario is highly dependent on the value the strategic partner sees in kenya. As the revised FDP made this project a very good one it could be that Tlw keeps a higher carry working interest than I originally thought. A 50% equity stake and 1,7billion to first oil would give you around 60 000 bopd. If a 10% stake needs 340m in capex to first oil and the buyer would get 40% from tullow for it, it sounds too high for me, as 12 000 bopd (=10% WI) would already produce a netback of 350m$ per annum at current oil prices of 100$!.
So i guess someone could be paying for a 20% carry stake if he gets 30% of the equity for it. Ofc they want to be operating this field, so 30% seems to be a little low, but Total's stake and Africa OiL's stake (25% each) are also on the table. I guess Total will leave completely (maybe changed, after ukraine now but who knows..), while Africa Oil could be looking to a full carry as well. This might mean 30% from tullow, 25% from Total and another 15% from Africa Oil which would lead to a 70% operator ship with Tullow holding another 20% and Africa Oil 10% being both carried to first oil.
That scenario would add 24 000 bopd for Tullow from 2025 on for nil cost.
Tullows 20% would be valued at a 680m full carry. Getting 30% for 1,7billion for the new strategic partner. Dont forget, the breakeven for this project is believed to be at 21$/bbl after the revised FDP!

Although Robert didnt want to say sth about specific dates we know from Africa Oil, that a decision will be made till 10. May at the latest.

So expect some news on this matter in the next 40 days!

On the gas commercialisation agreement:
As Sankofa is getting around 8$/mmbtu and he always refered to it, I guess Tullows offered price for non assiciated gas to ghana might be somewhere around 6$/mmbtu, while the associated gas will be around 3$/mmbtu.
Anyway, a nice little income that would pay down our whole current debt in the next 10-15 years on its own.

[waldron] 02/4/2022 06:09

subsurface
2 Apr '22 - 01:03 - 57246 of 57246
0 1 0
Time for Ghana to develop indigenous gas resources – Tullow CEO




Jubilee Cira 2 week maintenance shutdown is scheduled this month

[subsurface] 02/4/2022 00:03

Time for Ghana to develop indigenous gas resources – Tullow CEO




Jubilee Circa 2 week maintenance shutdown is scheduled this month

[molatovkid] 01/4/2022 19:45

Since Tullow appears to have been under 70p for a couple of years - I'm wondering what it is going to take to boost the price above that level.

[zaxarobal] 01/4/2022 17:03

Is the bear market still over?I'm asking for a friend.

[kulvinder] 01/4/2022 15:43

Slowly slowly catch a monkey..

[fizzmiss] 01/4/2022 07:05

Gonna have a field day today, the sewer rat shorters.

Never goes up with oil but gets crashed down when it falls back a little.

TLW has never recovered since Goldman Sucks bought back in at 65p, wonder why that is ;@)

[waldron] 31/3/2022 17:45

Price (GBX)
53.74 0.71% (0.38)

[fizzmiss] 31/3/2022 15:49

Fully agree, was doing something similar but got caught out wrong end of the spike.

[chachacha] 31/3/2022 11:29

This is a great stock to channel. Buy 45, sell 55 & repeat.

[fizzmiss] 31/3/2022 07:05

Poor old TLW, always the dog of the show; never goes up when oil rises to mega new highs but always crashed down on the slightest drop.

Can you imagine what the share price would be manipulated down to if oil dropped to $70 again, probably 10p lol.

Thinking about it, when oil was at $70, the share price was around 65p?

Go figure, what's going on here, nothing but corrupt share price manipulation by the big boys.

[bootycall] 31/3/2022 06:50

Interesting article in Oil Price ..storage full…supplying Transneft pipeline… because there are so few Western buyers. Wells now needed to be capped and shipments of Russian Oil over last few weeks down 26.4% to 3.6m bpd . Looks like Biden can try to fill the gap with the last short term card he has to play .
Meanwhile Yemen is taking a leaf from the Ukrainians … drones attacks are causing Saudi Arabia all sorts of problems .
Let’s hope the SPR release has some limited affect because the previous 50m release did not exactly do much !

[yellowstoneadvisory] 31/3/2022 06:19

If you missed the recent Tullow webinar, a recording of the presentation can be viewed here:

[yellowstoneadvisory] 31/3/2022 06:19

If you missed the recent Tullow webinar, a recording of the presentation can be viewed here:

[heialex1] 30/3/2022 18:00

I agree that TLW should be much higher, and personally think it will re-rate (see HBR and ENQ whose re-rating seems to have started), but not sure why people are obsessed with the idea that it is manipulated....Just need more buyers than sellers and then the price will rise.

[fizzmiss] 30/3/2022 17:46

Fully agree, TLW should be at least 90p, such is the power of the 1% elite who manipulate share prices at will with no governing body in place to clamp down on such corruption.

Goldman Sucks is one of the biggest offenders on record.