Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[kulvinder] 23/3/2021 22:08

Amazing what a difference 7 days make, I was fully bullish when this hit 65p like a prat believed the 75p story with poo hitting over $70 Only to find all my profit gone in a few trading later. Now not sure which way it will break with fears of a 3rd lockdown allover Europe.

[fizzmiss] 23/3/2021 21:28

Exactly, more oil buyers than sellers, soooooooooooooooooooooooo hold, dodgy MM playing games, no wayyyyyyyyyyyyy should TLW have been manipulated down 18p.

Simply done for their sewer rat shorting mates.

Oil will come back mega, today's news tomorrow's chip paper; what will the oil price be if one of these ever-increasing attacks on Saudi oil cause major damage?

The Saudis are already asking for help from the yanks.

My only concern is the MM has no fear and will crash the share price to whatever the Sewer Rat Shorters ask.

[sarkasm] 23/3/2021 21:15

fizzmiss
23 Mar '21 - 20:30 - 2469 of 2469

[sarkasm] 23/3/2021 20:09

courtesy of mch2015





CONCLUSION

No doubt there’s a lot of oil price leverage driving the Tullow share price. But our sense from the numbers above is that its going to take a lot more than mid sixties oil to make Tullow a long term thriving concern. We assume management know this, and therefore I think there is a material likelihood they will act accordingly and get existing equity holders to carry more water vs the debtholders. Depending on how that’s finessed, it could be painful for existing shareholders. There is simply too much debt and not enough assets to cover it.

[sarkasm] 23/3/2021 20:07

thanks mch

[sarkasm] 23/3/2021 20:05

mch2015
23 Mar '21 - 19:58 - 53924 of 53924
0 0 0
New report on Tullow looks bearish...



CONCLUSION

No doubt there’s a lot of oil price leverage driving the Tullow share price. But our sense from the numbers above is that its going to take a lot more than mid sixties oil to make Tullow a long term thriving concern. We assume management know this, and therefore I think there is a material likelihood they will act accordingly and get existing equity holders to carry more water vs the debtholders. Depending on how that’s finessed, it could be painful for existing shareholders. There is simply too much debt and not enough assets to cover it.

[mch2015] 23/3/2021 19:58

New report on Tullow hxxps://brevarthanresearch.substack.com/p/tullow-oil-melting-ice-cube. looks bearish...

[grupo guitarlumber] 23/3/2021 16:33

Europe’s Oil Demand Outlook Turns Gloomier on Renewed Lockdowns

Jack Wittels and Siddharth Philip, Bloomberg News

Geopolitical risk is creeping back into the crude oil market.

, March 23, 2018.

(Bloomberg) -- The oil demand recovery in Europe, a region that accounts for about 15% of global consumption, looks set to take a fresh hit as the continent struggles to deal with another wave of coronavirus cases that could curb summer travel plans.

Shares of all of Europe’s biggest airlines, including British Airways owner IAG SA, slumped this week over concerns about a deteriorating outlook for bookings. Germany, France and Italy have all widened lockdown measures this month. The U.K. is to fine people up to 5,000 pounds ($6,900) if they take overseas holidays now, while wavering about a planned reopening on May 17.

Brent crude futures slumped almost 5% on Tuesday, the second time in four sessions that they’ve fallen sharply. A recovery in European oil demand was widely expected, but the emergence of a third wave of infections has deferred that, said Jonathan Leitch, an oil analyst at Turner, Mason & Co.

“We’re not going to get that seasonal peak and we’re not going to get the recovery that we were expecting,” he said, discussing Europe’s jet fuel demand, which is usually stronger in the summer.

For the gasoline and diesel market, the impact of the latest restrictions will be “negative versus expectations but not necessarily demand being cut from current levels,” he said.

The global recovery in oil demand could be curbed by as much as 1 million barrels a day by vaccination glitches -- such as those being observed in Europe -- according to Rystad Energy, an Oslo-based consultant.

Europe’s flight numbers are languishing at more than 60% below 2019 levels for the time of year, a situation that has shown little-to-no improvement for weeks, according to the latest data from Eurocontrol. In the U.S., meanwhile, airport passenger numbers have been steadily rising and wider demand is improving more strongly.

The chances of anything close to a normal rebound in Europe this summer are diminishing by the day, Mark Manduca, an analyst at Citi said in a note to clients Tuesday.

IAG has tumbled almost 10% this week as government officials and ministers expressed concerns that a restart in overseas travel could jeopardize the country’s gains from a rapid vaccination campaign. EasyJet Plc, Ryanair Holdings Plc and tour operator TUI AG have slumped too.

Brent futures fell as low as $61.41 on Tuesday. That’s a retreat of about $10 a barrel from their year-to-date high, set on March 8.

[alfiex] 23/3/2021 16:20

And whats going to send it to 55 50 if we are lucky

[grupo guitarlumber] 23/3/2021 15:53

Most oilies have been affected by negative news

lets hope that current strong supports hold

[zaxarobal] 23/3/2021 14:36

Yeah is red again. Ride the wave.With all these red days I?m hopping you are able to average down.Gotta spend money to make money.

[waldron] 23/3/2021 14:35

FWIW Smile or Smirk






This is what I’m doing about the Tullow Oil share price right now!

Royston Wild | Tuesday, 23rd March, 2021 | More on: TLW


It’s been an eventful fortnight in the life of the Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW) share price. Since sweeping to 14-month highs close to 61p per share in mid-March the oil stock has experienced heavy selling. It was last trading at 48p per share.

Tullow Oil’s share price spiked to those aforementioned peaks as Brent oil prices rocketed. It stands to reason then that the oilie’s slumped as black gold prices have stepped back again. After rising close to $70 per barrel — its most expensive since May 2019 — the crude benchmark is back trading around $62.



Is this a temporary setback for the Tullow Oil share price recovery? Or will this FTSE 250 stock keep on tanking?

On the bearish side

There are several factors that could keep Tullow Oil’s share price on the back foot:

#1: Rising oil demand fears. In the near term at least the outlook for Brent values can be described as bleak. The benchmark’s recent reversal reflects the tightening of Covid-19 lockdowns in parts of Europe and vaccine rollout problems on the continent. Sellers are fearing that new restrictions will hit oil demand hard in the short-to-medium term. The rapid spread of virus variants across swathes of the US threaten to keep Brent prices on the back foot, too, and with it the Tullow Oil share price.

#2: Fresh production problems. Mass production of any natural resource is replete with danger. Exploration results can often disappoint and the complexities of commodity excavation can cause havoc to production levels too. Tullow Oil itself has been no stranger to problems on this front as my colleague Zaven Boyrazian recently explained.

#3: Balance sheet pressure keeps building. Free cash flow improved in 2020 and total net debt levels at Tullow fell. But don’t be mistaken: the oil stock’s balance sheet remains under considerable strain. Gearing (a measure of debt to equity) actually rose to three times last year, from two times in 2019.

Why Tullow’s share price could rebound

That said, there are several reasons why the Tullow Oil share price could zip higher again soon. Naturally, an improvement in the Covid-19 crisis would push up Brent prices again and with it the value of this UK share’s stock. There’s also the possibility that the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations will keep announcing production curbs to support crude prices.

And there’s the fact that Tullow Oil hopes heavy investment in its West African assets will deliver meaty profits growth from next year. It says that this robust investment on “cash generative producing assets” is anticipated “to increase production in 2022 and sustain it for the longer term”.

That said, I’m not convinced that the Tullow Oil share price will break out of its tailspin soon. I’m concerned about the implications of a prolonged Covid-19 battle on oil demand and on the company’s fragile balance sheet, plus the growing use of renewable energy sources on the company’s long-term picture too. I’d much rather buy other UK shares right now.

[mcsean2164] 23/3/2021 13:57

EU exported 35 million vaccines and kept 45 million. Maybe EU should have refused to export as the UK and US did and just take care of its own in defiance of the WHO guidelines.

Who would have thought Russia would be the most generous exporter! The world is turned upside down.

[supermarky] 23/3/2021 12:04

Tlw is always a crazy ride

[badger36] 23/3/2021 11:37

Hope you did not buy back too soon

[aalli] 23/3/2021 11:34

This closes above 50p today!

[ammu12] 23/3/2021 11:25

Reckon the most they can delay would be another month.Holidays should be okay for July/August and then lockdown again...And then rinse and repeat....that's gonna be our life

[umitw] 23/3/2021 11:22

I'm sure they will come up with another excuse.Travel doesn't have to be to EU, there are other countries managed to curb the C-19 with less deaths and infections.