Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[smartie6] 15/4/2020 07:57

It won't matter.
It's too late now.

[p winky] 15/4/2020 07:53

Brent up this morning from yesterday .

[leoneobull] 15/4/2020 05:34

Let's pity the US shale guys...official price USD20, actually getting much less due to being landlocked and Cushing about to fill up.

Oil and gas production in the United States has peaked and is already in decline.
The latest data from the EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report sees widespread production declines across all major shale basins in the country. The Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd between April and May, with declines also evident in the Eagle Ford (-35,000 bpd), the Bakken (-28,000 bpd), the Anadarko (-21,000 bpd) and the Niobrara (-20,000 bpd).
Natural gas production is also in decline, a reality that occurred prior to the global pandemic but is set to accelerate. The Appalachian basin (Marcellus and Utica shales) are expected to lose 326 million cubic feet per day (mcf/d) in May, a loss of 1 percent of supply. In percentage terms, the Anadarko basin in Oklahoma is expected to see an even larger drop off – 216 mcf/d in May, or a 3 percent decline in production.
The sudden declines in production illustrates the fatal flaw in the shale business model. Once drilling slows down, production can immediately go negative due to steep decline rates. Shale E&Ps have to keep running fast on the drilling treadmill in order to keep production aloft. But the meltdown in prices has forced the industry to idle 179 rigs since mid-March.
With drilling grinding to a halt, output has slumped as “legacy” production declines take hold. That is, without new wells coming online to offset the declines from existing wells, overall production falls.
In specific terms, the Permian, for example, will lose 356,000 bpd from “legacy” wells in May, more than overwhelming the 280,000 bpd in new output from new wells. On a net basis, the Permian is set to lose 76,000 bpd in May.

That legacy decline rate has deepened with each passing year, requiring more aggressive drilling each month to keep production on an upward trend. But the treadmill has finally caught up to the industry.
The OPEC+ deal won’t rescue a lot of shale companies. The demand destruction is simply too large for the OPEC+ cuts. With WTI at $20 per barrel on Tuesday, Permian drillers are actually receiving quite a bit less than that.
“Since humans started using oil, we have never seen anything like this,” Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd., told the Wall Street Journal. “There is no guide we are following. This is uncharted.” He estimates demand has plunged from 100 million barrels per day (mb/d) to just 65-70 mb/d currently.
The WSJ says that oil storage in Cushing, OK could be full by the end of the month, which could abruptly force production shut ins in Oklahoma and Texas. That suggests the EIA estimate for a decline in U.S. shale production of 183,000 bpd in May could be optimistic.
Meanwhile, analysts are eyeing a rebound for gas because of the supply curtailments already underway. The shut-ins in the Permian also help balance gas markets because associated gas will decline along with oil. a

“We believe the prospects of crude oil shut-ins and lower oil drilling activity are likely to shift the natural gas supply-demand picture from bearish to bullish over the next 9months assuming normal weather,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. “We assume 2021 Henry Hub natural gas price of$3.25/MMBtu on average, above our $2.75/MMBtu mid-cycle estimate.” Henry Hub is currently trading at around $1.70/MMBtu.
The crisis for oil drillers has some of them clamoring for regulation from the Texas Railroad Commission. But no matter which way the RRC decides, cuts are in the offing.
A more worrying prospect for U.S. shale is that the OPEC+ deal, as ineffectual as it was at boosting prices, may not prove sustainable. “The current deal has been forged under duress and is much more likely to fall apart over time,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said in a statement. “Saudi Arabia’s economic need for a production volume of 12-13m bl/day in a $50/bl world, and Russia’s strong distaste for production cuts as a means for achieving higher prices, are fundamentals which the current deal cannot circumvent.”
Saudi Arabia hiked prices for shipments heading to the U.S., a nod to President Trump and the OPEC+ agreement. But it cut prices to shipments to Europe and Asia, evidence that Riyadh is not done with its market share strategy.
“The official selling prices for its May oil shipments, which have been announced after a one-week delay, should be interpreted as a warning to other oil exporters if they do not toe the line,” Commerzbank wrote on Tuesday. “[T]he price war is continuing to simmer on a low level.”
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

[leoneobull] 15/4/2020 04:59

Saudi Arabia says price war was 'unwelcome departure' from oil policy. FT today. Google headline u can read article

[leoneobull] 15/4/2020 04:38

…

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Drilling-Grinds-To-A-Halt-At-Key-Shale-Hotspots.html

[leoneobull] 15/4/2020 04:38

Despite Rubicon's best efforts to mobilise a small army of British fruit-pickers, not enough chaps with the right tenacity, wiliness and determination have stepped forward. Where is the Dunkirk spirit of old?

[bigsi2] 14/4/2020 19:37

The real OPEC++ production cut is only 2.6 mmb/d.Cuts are based on October 2018 levels and those were 7.1 mmb/d higher than present.9.7 mmb/d cut only results in a net change of 2.6 mmb/d from March levels.

[leoneobull] 14/4/2020 19:32

Smartie. Last week you admitted you could have trebled your money, gutting eh? I guess there is solace in seeing the fall today , poor diddums

[spec7] 14/4/2020 19:03

Ammu12
As you get into this game you will realise that a stock that has "held extremely well" doesnt have to be one that has gone up. Considering all the doomsters here that predicted a crash and even the end of TLW yesterday to lose a couple of pence is "holding extremely well" this really is basic stuff and i shouldn't have to explain this to you but hey...You have to learn sometime.

[justthemoney] 14/4/2020 18:10

TLW Uganada farm down negotiations at reduced price from the original $900m following oil price collapse. Explains why share price dropped a lot more than it's peers. However I think it's all positive from now on for TLW. They still have very good assets, and oil won't stay at these levels for much longer. New CEO + farm down, all positive news to follow. TLW is in a much stronger position than most medium sized explorers. As soon as most of US shale goes bust (4-8 weeks), oil will be on a recovery path pushing TLW price much, much higher.
IMO, DYOR.

[ammu12] 14/4/2020 17:06

Yeah so someone who bought last week is sitting on a loss so your assumption it's held extremely well is kinda stupid....

[spec7] 14/4/2020 16:56

Yes but i bought in last week not 6 months ago.

[ammu12] 14/4/2020 16:45

And 10% of what it was 6 months ago....

[spec7] 14/4/2020 16:33

I think its held up remarkably well actually, its double what it was just 4 weeks ago.

[fizzmiss] 14/4/2020 16:20

Disaster of a day, might as well close shop and come back in 12 months and see whats left

[spacedust] 14/4/2020 15:25

Anyone missed the spike on avct because you got the news too early then have a look at Sareum SAR could be going for a vaccine for c19

[spirito] 14/4/2020 15:01

1.5 mill buy, nice

[spirito] 14/4/2020 15:01

thanks for telling us yesterday

[turvart] 14/4/2020 14:19

AVCT taking off bigtime, thought I'd let you know about it!

[spacedust] 14/4/2020 14:00

If it goes up I'm in more profit

If it goes down I can add.

What a brilliant position to be in

[teamwork1] 14/4/2020 13:36

Tlw go trading update on the 23rd April, we might get some news

[spacedust] 14/4/2020 13:30

Scumbags utd