Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[holmess] 28/10/2015 20:32

WTI continuing to rally after hours - currently up 6.5% on the day

hxxp://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/wti-oil-futures-soar-4-after-bullish-u.s.-supply-report-368463

[sawadee3] 28/10/2015 20:14

Yup agreed with holmess. Easiest money to be made with TLW! i don't understand the bears doon n gloom at all but it does raise a smile while i'm loading up on the cheap :-)

Tis much better than having to work for a living :-)

Looking forward to these opening up higher in the morning :-)

[holmess] 28/10/2015 17:51

Hi Azaelea, TLW! Obviously you're not good at reading charts ;)

I've just gone back through my recent trades in Excel and I bought £30k TLW at 158p on 29/09, then sold them at 265p on 9/10, so that's actually 11 days, giving a profit per share of 107p, which as %age of my 158p buy price represents a return of 67.72% - I think that's a fairly strong case to show just what a load of cobblers the bear case is. While you and the perma-bears have been calling down the price I've just been trading the technicals - you should try it, you might make some money, you were calling oil lower at 158p - how did that work out for you?

£10 isn't fanciful at all. I think that's actually on the low side, more like £25 in 3 years when the PoO will be back around $100 a barrel, but I'll settle for £10 with the LTBH position I'm building on weakness in my SIPP.

[cricklewood] 28/10/2015 17:22

Big jump today.

[cricklewood] 28/10/2015 17:16

I would settle for £15 for a cool £100k profit.

[azalea] 28/10/2015 16:56

holmes
What oiler/s have given you a 60% return on your capital in the last 6 weeks. Giving a price of £10 for TLW in 3 years is just fanciful; why not a bid for £15 next week.

[sawadee3] 28/10/2015 15:32

Easy money :-)

[jovi1] 28/10/2015 15:05

be negatibe guys
everytime we do so we get a move up, they we all talk well and go down
as going up think about the debit, china iran and all the rest and keep buying small and often

good luck

[sawadee3] 28/10/2015 15:02

Market so hungry for ridiculously undervalued Oilies. This will be the 4th time in a 8 week period i've made a killing here by trading the swings :-)

Happy days :-)

[sawadee3] 28/10/2015 14:54

Looking good chaps! :-)

[holmess] 28/10/2015 14:50

Azalea - the small trades you refer to are 'AT' trades and are those taken directly off the order book to fill the ordinary trades. Pretty basic stuff.And I'm buying oil shares because they are undervalued by pretty any benchmark, and have already given me a 60% return on capital in the last 6 weeks! TLW will be back above £10 within 3 years.

[phowdo] 28/10/2015 14:24

probably following the sharp uptick in crude.

[holmess] 28/10/2015 14:12

Quite an upswing in last hour....

[rinato5] 28/10/2015 11:44

Too much speculation.
One thing's sure the oil is not infinite and the more we use the less we have for future generation.
The big " boys" are trying to keep the oil price down to balance the economy but soon or later the price will rise, it is just matter of time.
AS the minister of transport of Abu Dhabi said " today the oil price it's a gift from god"
Watch this space

[azalea] 28/10/2015 09:48

Just an observation.
I can understand that a number of buyers might be buying a small amounts of shares to put in their bottom draw in the hope of a recovery or even a bid. However, what I do not understand is the virtually incessant buying of countless small lots, which even if the share price were to rise 10p, the profits would be hardly worth the trouble. In addition, given that the p.o.o. and associated supply/ demand ratio is unlikely to change notably in the next 1-2 years, I cannot understand why anyone is currently buying oil shares,which at best whilst earning a dividend might not be enough to cover the buy/selling costs, let alone a further in the share price

[jovi1] 27/10/2015 17:43

Debit issue I don't think is as bad as much smart money and shorter would like to make us believe
Even if 5 bill was taken is a cost of 300 mill
On a very low estimate production of 60 and 20 netback would more than cover the costs
If we assume that oil would fall below the 30 mark the whole us shale production will shut down and will only be able to produce the hedge part.
Same for most of North Sea oil
At this time big company well but the assets and mothball them / same,
Personally I get as exited when poo go down as when goes up
I expect the will be the last test for low in oil before chafe direction
Ideally mid to low 30s would cut months from the road of full recovery
This is not a TLW issue but a industry problem
Can you see the world without oil
If not, keep investing in oil company's Tlw or many other that offer different risk reward ratio, make sure you spread across few
Good luck

[bobsidian] 27/10/2015 16:43

Noteworthy that TLW seems to have been tracking more the moves in the mining index (NMX1770) instead of the moves in the oil producer index (NMX0530).

It will be interesting to see whether or not this continues to be the case given that the oil producer index appears to have now broken down through its near term support level. That index has held up very well even though the price of oil is now making moves to test the lows last seen in late August.

[mapocho] 27/10/2015 12:42

It's just the debt situation. If you can't service your debt it's the end of the company. Never liked investing in a company with massive debt for that reason.

[mccracken227] 27/10/2015 12:41

Same view as you investor dave it always falls more and rises less than the market. Is it a massive buy at this price?

[investordave] 27/10/2015 12:34

Maybe. But TLW's share price seems to have fallen disproportionately to the fall in the price of oil. For me that's one of the most frustrating things.

[mapocho] 27/10/2015 12:31

It's just the decline in the oil price. Not sure how far it will go on this drop, but if it goes into the 30 dollar range it's going to be tough for Tlw...

[investordave] 27/10/2015 12:01

Is there no end to the fall in this share price? Thoroughly depressing for all holders.

[azalea] 27/10/2015 11:42

The decline in natural gas prices for delivery in December despite the nearing onset of winter in the N.hemisphere, does not auger well for oil demand/prices.

[ny boy] 27/10/2015 10:26

As predicted another dead cat bounce, this one along with other oil plays will go bust, the longer the oil price slumps the quicker the final end game. Only the multi nationals will survive

[herbyrainer] 27/10/2015 07:11

Probably test the recent lows again this week. If £1.50 goes it could be a good time to add but equally with the companies debt levels and low oil for the foreseeable, this could tie up money for a long time waiting for a recovery.