Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[shaws67] 14/10/2015 15:03

HerbyRainer 14 Oct'15 - 08:05 - 22246 of 22253 0 0

Sold my holding this AM 20% gain. Will look to buy in again around £180- £2.00 mark.


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You mean - buy again at 280p or 300p?

[albanyvillas] 14/10/2015 14:21

In love with Tully

[ifthecapfits] 14/10/2015 13:48

Russia sending an aircraft carried to the ME. More scope for an accident....

[jovi1] 14/10/2015 13:19

Onjohn i agree with you,
Azalea i don't think the suggestion is Usa directly support the oil company but world policy start in US incoraged and now supporting the avalability of chep cash with QE (incoraged increase in production) and 0 interest rate keep borrowing at minimum.
slowly howevery secondary lender start to be more choosy on who to lend and at what rate/risk and as consequence borrowing cost in the oil industry has increase and production in usa start to decrease.
as few lender will loose some of the capital the financial industy will keep cost higher for longer that will be required and this tougheter with capex reduction of the major O&G will make oil spike. share in O&G will rise faster than oil itself.
will this happen in 2015-16-or 17 not one can be sure as may other factor will determin the time frame but none will alter the evetual result in oil reaching new high in the future.
herby way in a very volatile time can work for the short time but ultimatelly the long time investor will get the higher reward.
this is time as i say before for retail investor to beat the professional, our job do not depend on 3 months performance or pay anyone divident using the money to increase the investiments.
i always made money on oil and gas using the same system.
every time oil drop 40% i start to buy and keep buying without overstreching too much if possible. Pick company in different areas and with different debit/resouse ratio. and only sell if some company fodamental has changed as for the industry supply and demand will adjust without anyone intervention.
ultimatelly if 20% or more of the oil cannot be produced under $45 eventually will stop get produced whatever company choose do do so or go burst.
keep calm and sit tight and you will be ok

[cricklewood] 14/10/2015 12:13

And then u woke up!!!!!



HerbyRainer
14 Oct'15 - 08:05 - 22246 of 22247 0 0


Sold my holding this AM 20% gain. Will look to buy in again around £180- £2.00 mark.

[azalea] 14/10/2015 08:13

Where is the evidence that the U.S. government is involved in propping up domestic oilers, by keep lending them money?
Oil is an international commodity, the company that can continually produce and sell it at a profit will always stay in business. Those who can't run the business at a profit will if it has enough net assets worth notably more than what is reflected by its share price will get taken over, if not, its investors will sell, its share price will fall and the company will fall into the abyss.

[herbyrainer] 14/10/2015 08:05

Sold my holding this AM 20% gain. Will look to buy in again around £180- £2.00 mark.

[onjohn] 14/10/2015 07:49

i beg to differ, sentiment has improved for Poo andlook for 300p-400p sharpish

[herbyrainer] 14/10/2015 07:32

The trouble is Onjohn your logic is perfect but the world we live in is not. Oil will go higher when the dominant power (USA) decides it is time for higher oil. They hold all the cards, they can keep lending money to thier domestic oilers to prop them up if they so choose. As I have saiid before I expect £1.80 - £2.50 for TLW until things settle down a bit.

[onjohn] 14/10/2015 06:58

I wrote the note below back in early 2015 and posted in a MW article similar to this one. I will admit that it has taken longer than I might have guessed, but from all I read, and hear from my colleagues who have not retired, the ideas I suggest below are playing out and the endgame is rising oil prices. Maybe it will not be until 2016, but I can see no other outcome. By the way I have been dollar cost averaging into oil stocks all year. I have written covered calls on some to augment dividend income. And I wait patiently.

Here is the note I wrote in 1Q of 2015 of this year without any change.
-----------------------------
Having retired from a career with a multinational oil company I just cannot see oil price staying this low through all of 2015. I was involved in the decision making process on projects and nearly every NEW project I saw in the last decade would not tolerate $50 oil and still pass the hurdle of double digit return required for funding. Yes, many already initiated with money already spent are continuing as it is money forward that dictates that decision, but new exploration and development projects will be put on hold. All companies have an oil price prediction table that is considered along with costs and oil production to determine project viability. That oil price prediction is updated every 6-9 months. When I retired the base price was $80 and there was a rather flat gently increasing value into the next decade. When the next oil price curve is provided to today's planners it will crush virtually all forward projects. Maybe that is already happening. As oil yield drops on current fields the rather constant, but still globally increasing demand will catch up to production and bingo, oil prices will have to go up.
In the meantime, rather than make capital expenses on new projects, the multinationals will go shopping for reserves amongst the less fortunate companies who lack the capital to continue given the low price they are getting for production. They will be forced to sell at current value for the commodity, but the majors who buy them will simply announce that they have replaced their reserves (through purchase, not drilling) and then they will wait until the price is right to invest in the drilling required to exploit the resource. By 2016 at the latest, probably even some time in 2015, we will have, or be predicting, an oil shortage and the price will go back up. The Saudis, by the way, also know this, and they probably have the financial assets to wait it out. Russia, well we don't know about them, at least I don't.
Think for a minute. How many times in the last 30-50 years, pick a period, has oil cratered or skyrocketed. It actually happens way too often. Each time the proponents of the current movement claim that this is the real deal and that the price will either never be lower again or that it will never recover. There is no reason that this is any different. As the price craters, there is a conscious and unconscious reaction by the companies exploring and producing oil and the folks supporting such with their investments, right down to you and me buying (or selling) stock. For some it is an over reaction and that causes way too big a correction, whichever the direction.
It is inherently flawed that a commodity with a really flat and marginally increasing demand and with sufficient supply (don't let folks tell you otherwise on that either) would fluctuate in price so dramatically. My advice, stay the course. I am buying a little as it drops (mostly via stable majors with safe dividends, but drillers or suppliers should work also), but not too much such that I would ever become nervous if the drop exceeds my expectations or the time for recovery is dragged along by some unforeseen event. Those who lose are those who sell low, either because they are fearful or because they have over committed.


PMO and TLW will be the first to get bids imho

[jovi1] 13/10/2015 17:12

I do agree with Holmess as important as Iranian oil can " potentially " be it is not what driving the oil price up or down, in any case I will keep repeating this it is not share that follow oil but the opposite is more true.
Both poo and share react to the news and until the news change you can consider it in the price.
What is changed in the last few week is Russia attack in Siria EIA update rigs and economy
Since yesterday close in uk oil lost a lot but as you can see the biggest damage was yesterday, clearly some done better than other but the trend is this.
The people that buy oil generally are not long term investors there for looking at a maybe small but quick return and the main objective is not to loose capital and get profit almost by default where shareholder looking at increasing capital in no less than 9 months.
It is true that some old oil for longer as well as day trade for share but that is an appendix not the norm.
Back to my view on actual oil price recovery is closer (time frame) for the share I suspect most of the survivor have bottomed by now not sure if oil has done so.
Fact is because easy money that we are in this prolonged situation but money are getting expensive and this will be what ultimately will make a big dent on what can be recovered .
Good luck

[holmess] 13/10/2015 16:00

Azalea - lol - proved right on what exactly - you've been calling down the TLW share price at a time when I've made a trading profit of 40% and oil had had it largest % monthly rise in 6 years! I'd hate to see what one of your bad calls is ;)The notion that today's specific move has anything to do with Iran is completely flawed. A MUCH bigger driver of the PoO in the near term will be Russians ambitions in the Middle East. Putin wants (needs) higher prices and the best way to achieve that is to destabilise the region.Also, OPECs strategy to maintain production levels to crush the US shale industry is almost complete, and when they all start going bust, opec will happily limit production to drive the PoO back over $60

[spacedust] 13/10/2015 12:54

The only reason oil is going down is coz gold man sucks said so and reiterated yesterday nothing else. Read my post on the ophir thread which is ghastly covered in more detail. Opec vs goldman sucks

[azalea] 13/10/2015 12:46

holmess
For the numerous months I have been commenting on the influences and direction on the P.o.o.,I think you will agree I have been proved correct(to put it mildly). The only reason Iran has signed the nuclear deal is so it can rebuild its severely weakened economy with income from increasing it sale of oil, thus adding to the supply side. Until global demand for oil outweighs supply to a notable degree, the p.o.o, stay depressed. A single day movement in the p.o.o. is unimportant, its the trend and the influencing factors in play that need to be watched. To suggest that Iran putting another 1m barrels on the open market in the near term is a minor factor, will only be proven once the sanctions are lifted.

[holmess] 13/10/2015 10:04

It's just normal low-volume chop. As usual we're waiting to take our lead from the US. There are always way too many factors to attribute one specific event to share price moves.

Azalea - I think you're the only person in the world so obsessed with Iranian oil :) - It's such a minor factor in the overall picture driving the PoO, If the share price goes blue this afternoon is that also then down to Iranian oil?

[azalea] 13/10/2015 09:26

Iranian government has approved the nuclear enrichment deal with the U.S., which draws nearer the sale of of its oil to countries in the West.

[ifthecapfits] 13/10/2015 09:00

Following oil down.

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 08:59

That's more like it way over sold this morning

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 08:51

Yes why ?..

[blueball] 13/10/2015 08:50

Testing new lows again.

[warwick69] 13/10/2015 08:43

Why is this falling so fast falling more than the oil price odd

[repairer1] 13/10/2015 06:55

Last chance to buy cheep first thing, share price will dip again followed by a sharp rise finishing 251 imo. Gla

[siwel3] 12/10/2015 21:46

Oil price falling hard again, perhaps testing recent lows again.