Agree, not great. Production has dropped off a cliff, well been heading south quickly. |
That RNS was obviously written by Rahul. paraphrasing "I'm a marvellous CEO, I've done a marvellous job and thanks to me the company is in a brilliant position."
Just concentrate on the facts.
2024 w/int oil production was 54.6K bopd (missing even the lower range of guidance)
2025 w/int oil production forecast: 44K - 49K bopd.
An apparent negative revision of -25.1 mmbbls of Jubilee reserves due to production performance. (It's probably larger than -25.1 as TEN reserves were up by an unquantified amount).
NPV10 reserves now only worth $2.5bn (a reduction of $900m from 2023FY)
OK Net Debt is apparently $1.45bn. That is the only positive. |
That's a worrying drop in production. 50k boepd. Yikes! |
 Update published
Financial
· The Group is considering disposals of certain non-core assets in order to accelerate deleveraging to its target of net debt of below $1 billion and gearing of less than one times. Disposals will only be considered where the level of proceeds would be accretive to both equity and leverage.
· 2025 capital expenditure of c.$250 million with c.60% allocated to Jubilee, c.30% to non-operated assets and c.10% to TEN, Kenya, and exploration and appraisal.
· Decommissioning spend of c.$15 million for UK; c.$15 million provisioning for Ghana and Gabon.
· Further cost base optimisation underway, with expected c.$10 million saving reducing annual cash net G&A to c.$40 million.
· Cash taxes expected to be c.$200 million at $80/bbl with payments weighted c.60% to the first half of the year.
· Hedge portfolio protects c.60% of forecast sales volumes at weighted average price of $59/bbl through the year, with c.60% of sales volumes exposed to oil price upside and c.40% capped at a weighted average price of $89/bbl.
· Forecast free cash flow of c.$200 million at $80/bbl, including c.$50 million of overdue gas receipts in Ghana from 2024.
· Management plans to repay the 2025 Notes at maturity with a combination of cash in hand and drawings from the Glencore facility, and to refinance and simplify the Group's capital structure during the remainder of 2025.
· The Group intends to set out a framework for capital returns and growth through inorganic opportunities following completion of the refinancing and appointment of a new CEO. |
Trading Statement and Operational Update will be on 30th Jan 2025 |
If it was an all share deal at todays share price Afentra would own 26.5% of the combo. Shows how poorly Rahul has performed considering McDade was booted out with nothing and had to start again from zero, from scratch. Can't see it happening though.
Maybe he's applied for the position of CEO? Lol!
One thing McDade does understand is the importance of putting together a decent slide deck. Something Rahul failed to do. I complained so many times to IR that their slides were rubbish! |
Be a laugh if Mcdade made a bid for Tullow lol |
Thx CCI. So former TLW CEO McDade was right to schedule his webcast for the same day! Deserves an LoL! |
Paul McDade (Afentra) is giving a shareholder webcast on 30th/Jan regarding their pretty solid trading update already released on 22nd/Jan. He's probably got wind that TLW trading update is out on the 30th (as he likes to embarrass TLW by presenting on the same day)! :-)
Either way IR have told 'others elsewhere' the TU will be next week (apparently). |
Trading statement should have been this week. |
Just a series of dead cat bounces trapping in more mug punters, “stretched balance sheet” have any noticed🤔8517;🤦ӿ95;♀5039; |
25 & 26 bonds holding steady
No significant movements to short positions(2.29% short) |
Let's speculate (and thats all it is) on 2025/1H production
2024 DEC Production was
JUB: 77,886
TEN: 17,544
Non-op (apparently) 10,500
There's (apparently) an FPSO shut down on Jubilee taking place in 1Q (say 15 days)
meaning corrected 2025/1H Jubilee production should be 166/181*77,886 = 71,431 bopd
So if the 2024 Dec rates stay flat (no decline) for the whole 6 months of 2025/1H that gives you
JUB: 71,431 Net 27,844
TEN: 17,554 Net 9,627
Non-op: Net 10,500
Tullow Group w/int: 47,970 bopd (doesn't include any gas).
Maybe DEC 24 was an outlier? Who knows?
Maybe increased Jub w/inj reliability will finally turn it around? Who knows?
Unless I've missed something? The above number seems really low? |
That's not "investment", it's gambling on this pile of dung. |
major cup and handle formed here, if I was a chartist I'd say this is primed to power straight through 30p...?
I'm over invested here but my gut keeps telling me to buy more at these levels... |
SS,
Those numbers are just oil.
Original TLW 2024 guidance was 62K - 68K boepd (includes 7K boepd of gas)
meaning oil only guidance was 55K - 61K bopd.
Gross Jub + TEN gas export to GNGC averaged about 92mmscfd (15.3Kboepd) over 2024
Or about, let's say 6K net boepd of gas to TLW. If Ghana pay for it!
And then there's a bit of gas from Cote d'Ivoire. Maybe about 0.4K boepd? (it's never been broken out). |
Have they included the Gas in the numbers? |
Just a thought. |
I think that should you acuse a chief operating officer of a company of lying you would want to be careful. |
Why would he lie? Oh, why would Kier Starmer? Oh yes to keep his job |
Thanks for the figures. |
Based on the Petrocom numbers and bearing in mind 2024 was a leap year.
Jubilee averaged 87,019 gross, 33,920 net
TEN averaged 18,537 gross, 10,166 net
If you assume (as per last trading update) non-op averaged 10,500 for the year then
2024 BOPD averaged 54,586 for the year which is slightly below the lower end of guidance.
The average decline rate on Jubilee has been 2.96% a month for the past 5 months.
Or 35% on an annualised basis if that were to continue.
More drilling, improved water injection etc etc would be expected to offset some of that, but even so it's a pretty concerning picture. |
Register for streaming realtime charts, analysis tools, and prices.
Hot Features
Premium
