Combined with the shorts below 0.5%, the total short is 17.6% as of last night of the FREE FLOAT which excludes the top 5 shareholders i believe .
Do not rely on the facts or opinions expressed when making an investment decision. |
What's the taking on the other two disputes? Two disputed taw assessments, which total USD387 million plus penalties, breach Tullow Ghana's rights under its petroleum agreements.https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1676363389255508000/tullow-oil-files-for-arbitration-over-usd387-million-tax-dispute.aspx |
We used to get that data from Euroclear which included all shorts below 0.5%.
But BREXIT (i think) means that data is no longer available. |
Booty
There's ony 2.9% of stock out on loan:
Fund % short change Date changed
Citadel Advisors LLC 0.63% 0.10% 18 Dec 2024
Hartree Partners Securities (UK) Limited 0.79% 0.0% 9 Dec 2024
Pictet Asset Management Ltd 1.50% 0.09% 1 Jan 2025
Total 2.92%
Where did you get 20% from? |
 Happy New Year xxnjr . I fully accept, as do the Company, that production will temporarily dip below 80k gross on Jubilee in 2026..it is a mature field with a decline ratio..aggravated by problems with the power gen sets units topside. Not sure what the decline is for Jubliee South East…as a new field the decline should be more modest to begin with ? I would envisage production closer to 90k gross in 2027…so we can all beat ourselves up over a net 4-5k bpd lost for 12 months…not because there are insufficient reserves …but because of rig accessibility.
Remember the reserves will be produced so the diminution in value is in relation to cash flow yield not value per share. The improved seismic should allow greater productivity per well going forward…but lets just talk about the negatives shall we ?
To try and calculate production that only a petroleum engineer with all the data can appraise is a mugs game… people need to look big picture at Tullow or they will miss a tremendous opportunity. I believe there is now positive momentum in both Ghana and Kenya and the share price in no way reflects the potential because of understandable concerns over the bond refinancing which should shortly be dealt with. Rahul Dhir, has lost the confidence of many investors …in the vacuum no one is discussing strategy …but this Company has almost paid down its debt to a sensible level and cash flows will soon be aimed at major growth projects…all in my opinion of course. Booty
DYOR |
Hello @bootycall
Happy New Year!,
Well the reason I 'failed' to mention depletion, was because my post was written specifically in response to Nobulls 61014, which raised some questions about reserves. For example, how much reserves might be added by the 2 wells being drilled in 2025? and future wells beyond that? So I just pulled the data from my spreadsheet and added a few comments to make sense of it (at least from my perspective).
Since you've raised 'Depletion'. Let me add a few comments. Underlying decline rate for Jubilee is kind of 20% to 25%. Thats without drilling any wells. The whole point of drilling the majority of those 23 wells on Jubilee was to get production up from say 75/90 Kbopd to say 110/120 Kbopd plateau and hopefully maintain it over 100K until 2030 with further drilling. Some, including your good self ISTR, even suggested 130K might be feasible. Well that just hasn't happened.
In 2024, March was the highest Jubilee production month at 98.6K. 9 months later I'd suggest, or rather tanker movements suggest, Jubilee 2024 exit rate is at 80K (or even slightly below). That's a decline rate of 18.9% in only 9 months!
TLW have changed their messaging recently. They are rather good at doing that!!!
In the half year results, they said
"This improved rate of water injection, together with the new J70 water injection well brought on-stream in June, is resulting in a good uplift in reservoir pressure which is already increasing production levels and offsetting decline.
Whereas in the Nov trading update, they said
"Water injection capacity has been increased to c.300 bwpd and gas offtake is currently c.100 mmscfpd. Combined with further production optimisation activities, this is expected to mitigate the declines experienced in the second half of 2024."
Since they can't be bothered to tell us what all those guests in the 500 bed hotel parked next to Jubilee are doing then it's difficult to say whether they will be successful in mitigating further decline, or not.
I do think some of the w/inj wells were drilled in the wrong place as per my previous. It was always a Q in my mind and one that normally helpful IR declined to answer! I guess we'll have to wait for the 2024AR reserves report to clarify matters. |
XX tells it how it is, he was the first to high light the fall off in Jubilee production from tanker loading data.
Jubilee capacity 120,000 bbls/d Ten 80,000 we are circa 50 % |
Xxnjr has always looked for the negative aspects of almost anything TLW does. Plenty of "speculation " and "opinions ". Everything should be on a RNS down to when the drilling ship refuels. I take it all with a pinch of salt. |
@xxnjr
1) Your analysis forgets to mention the normal depletion that should be expected from a mature field, although i do accept a specific write off was made post J069 in the specific area adjacent on the well on the main field .Remember up until now the field has been getting bigger over time not smaller..function of long term recovery ratio adjustment .
2) I believe as part of the bond refinancing the bondholders commission their own reserve report
3) Post a theoretical approval of the FDP for Ten , the condensate field being tied up to the FPSO would have major positive implications for reserves and allow a write back of the absurd previous negative carrying value of the TEN reserves on the assumption the field would cease to operate n first break of the FPSO. This is particularly absurd when you allow for a $50m reduction in the annual lease post 2025.
4) The new government is likely to have to pay $10m? costs to Tullow and make up arrears of close to $70-80m ?
5) The new seismic on Jubilee will give petroleum engineers much greater clarity on where to drill with commensurate uplift in well productivity. Nothing to stop them doing the same on Ten.
Despite all the above , you have made some decent technical points that require explanation…however, i am starting to believe you are a shorter because you must be aware that this was a comprehensive legal defeat for the previous Ghanaian government.The issue of loan interest is particularly mute and important for future tax requirements. Their outstanding claim on the turret insurance is ridiculous, as i understand both Kosmos and the state owned petroleum company chose not to pay any premiums before the issue arose.IMO, most of the tax claim was a scam. John Mahama’s administration chose not to make a claim on the turret issue so they are not tainted by this defeat…in fact they will be able to ridicule the opposition and say they will now work with the international oil companies to the benefit of the population.
I have bought quite a few Tullow today. The short position on the free float is close to 20%…which may help in understanding responses from certain brokers and posters.
In my opinion , post this arbitration result…(which i have predicted for ages) the bond refinancing should be ready to sign off …albeit with a higher coupon reflective of the rates prevailing in the market for this type of exposure. Booty
Please do not rely on the facts or opinions above when making an investment decision. |
Brent currently trading at 75.72 |
Tullow Oil plc
24.72 GBX +2.86 (13.08%)
Jan 3, 11:43 GMT |
Watching Daan Struyven from Golman Sachs head; oil research talking about oil trading in the mid 70's in the year ahead. |
Tullow shares soar as Ghana tax victory to help $1.4bn debt refinancing
International arbitration organisation rules Africa-focused explorer will not have to pay a $320m Ghana tax bill
Joe Brennan
Fri Jan 03 2025 - 09:27
Tullow Oil’s shares soared on Friday as investors digested the Irish-founded explorer’s victory in a major Ghana tax case, which will help the company as it goes about refinancing some $1.4 billion of debt, according to analysts.
Shares in Tullow jumped by as much as 13 per cent in early trading in London.
The company announced after European markets closed the previous evening that a major international arbitration organisation had ruled that the Africa-focused company will not have to pay a $320 million (€311 million) tax bill that the Ghana government had presented to it.
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) ruled that so-called branch profit remittance tax (BPRT) did not apply to Tullow’s operations in the Deepwater Tano and West Cape Three Points fields offshore Ghana.
Tullow is still in discussions with the Government of Ghana to resolve two other tax claims.
“Tullow has a $1.4 bond maturing in May 2026 with an annual coupon of 10.25 per cent. We expect it to refinance this bond in 2025, and the removal of the BPRT contingent liability has improved its ability to do this,” said Colin Grant, an analyst with Davy.
“Tullow remains committed to Ghana, and the resolution of the BPRT tax case does not impact its ongoing operations there.”
Ashley Kelty, an analyst with Panmure Liberum, said: “The removal of a further liability will take some pressure off the stretched balance sheet, although investors will still be keen to see some significant deleveraging this year.”
The rally by Tullow’s shares have brought them back to levels seen in the middle of last month, before a potential suitor, US oil and gas group Kosmos Energy, walked away from making a bid. Kosmos announced on December 17th that it had dropped its interest in an all-stock merger, less than a week after both companies had said they were in early talks for a potential deal.
Stock dealers said at the time that investors in both companies were concerned about the $4 billion of combined debt the merged entity would have.
News of Kosmos’s interest last week came days after Rahul Dhir said he was stepping down as chief executive of Tullow.
Tullow’s net debt peaked at $4.8 billion at the end of 2016. The company saw its share price plunge about 85 per cent in the 18 months before Mr Dhir took charge in 2020, amid a series of drilling and production disappointments, exits of its then chief executive and exploration director, massive asset writedowns and warnings about potential cash shortfalls.
Asset sales and cost-cutting – together with higher oil prices – had helped Tullow pull off a make-or-break $1.8 billion debt refinancing in 2021 and chip away at its debt mountain.
Tullow, which was founded by one-time Aer Lingus accountant Aidan Heavey in 1985, closed its Dublin office in 2020 as part of a round of corporate restructuring and quit the Irish stock market last year. It had moved its domicile to the UK two decades ago.
Joe Brennan
Joe Brennan is Markets Correspondent of The Irish Times |
I know they have said they remain in dialogue on the remaining 2 claims but does this result also effectively kill off those also |
60p is reasonable target if no new developments.
This was 60 at much lower oil prices (around $60), and lower output. |
Some heavy chunky buys :)
Re-rating to 30p over the next week would be nice! |
will start going back up now after that flurry of profit takers!
Onwards and upwards for tullow :) |
Here comes a buy back! |
Very good move for Glencore. TLW are paying about 15% annual on that loan! |
Great news.
Share price should recover to reasonable levels.
If i remember correctly, Glencore guaranteed debt. Such a good move by them. |
Looking good |
Great News!
will fly today!
BOOM! |
There was a financial publication that said TLW losing the case was priced in so would expect a correction. |
International one please! |
Tullow should take the GRA and/or GNPC to court ;-) |
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