With 20p gone there's avery chance this could drift further on a news blackout.
We could see 10-15p as selling pressure mounts.
Good upside potential but how low will she go? |
Let it fall. |
Always risky catching the falling knife |
Looks like larger trades are sells . Luckily not holding here . |
Got it under 19.... |
"A tribunal decision is imminent".
Is there anyone actually in TLW HQ? Has Rahul gone on holiday? Has he sent the papers back to the ICC to delay telling us about the verdict until 2025?
Total Rahul shambles. |
Defaul coming |
Still falling not surprised at all . Surprised it's not below 10p already tbh |
dros1,
They would pay if they can, as not paying will be disastrous for shareholders.
However the order of security over Tullow assets in the event of default is:
1st Lien 10.25% bonds + bank debt
Glencore facility
Senior 7% bonds
Shareholders
They already know they won't have the funds to pay 1st Lien bonds when due in 2026 so it makes sense to restructure before the maturity date is hit for the junior 7% bonds. If they insist on paying the 7% bonds out in full, just because they have the funds, it could be argued that they acted in a way that is not proportionate to different stakeholder's interests.
Barring a takeover, nothing else apart from an early re-structure makes makes any sense. |
Just bought in ! |
Default coming |
Word is out there - tullow close to defaulting |
The last time we seen this price was October 2020 |
Looks sick! |
Broken the 20p support that has been hit 3 times in recent weeks!!! |
FactSet Research shows the 2024 PE as 1.3x (oonsensus eps of 15.92p). After a massive 200% increase in the share count, the PE will be more normal (nothing to be excited about, say 6x). All the D4E will do is buy us time to increase the reservoir depletion speed and to find some more P2 reserves (the 2025/2026 drilling campaign to put us in an improved bargaining position to negotiate some replacement debt finance to take care of the 2026 bonds. We do not want a whole load of off balance sheet 'assets' transferring to the 2026 bond holders after we have been diluted out 100% and they become the new shareholders, do we? |
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/KOS/statement-re-possible-offer/16809964 |
low forward PE? TLW enterprise value £2.32B Consensus Estimate net profit for 2025 is £238M so its a pe of about 10 , is that considered low? |
"how can they not pay ?"
Treble the number of shares in issue, the reason we trade on a low forward PE, and the reason RD is not sticking around. D4E swap. |
wshak "I’m now convinced they won’t pay out $500m to juniors whatever happens"
how can they not pay ? are they not due before shareholders ? |
XX
I would be sitting in the Moulon Rouge, thats must be why I dont understand bonds.
I would have an interest in things unfolding. |
Well if I was sitting in Paris in M&P's HQ I might be taking a passing interest at events unfolding here.
Why? M&P is 71.09% owned by Pertamina (the Indonesian NOC)
M&P net debt is currently around zero.
But if they need to raise money it's relatively cheap as benefit from Pertamina's balance sheet strength.
Typically between SOFR + 2% and SOFR + 5% for a take over situation as was case last year with Assala Gabon That deal didn't go through due to exercise of government pre-empt.
But taking on $1.4bn of debt refinanced by Pertamina + any acquisition cost might just be too much.
Seplat (20% owned by M&P) unlikely to be interested as too tied up absorbing MNPU Nigeria which has just gone through. |
There is strange situation with Tullow debt where the junior bonds mature a year earlier than the senior secured bonds.I'm now convinced they won't pay out $500m to juniors whatever happens. They have signalled too strongly that the seniors will have to restructure - maybe this director thinks that the 7s will achieve a better return in a debt for equity swap than 80c in the $? He has been buying the equity after all so we know he's a hopeful type. Restructure very soon is the only option that makes much sense. The Director is a non-exec who can't know the result of the court case.If they lose that, virtually impossible to call it the juniors.If they win, there's a chance but, even then, how can they pay out $500m whilst admitting they can't pay out on 1st Lien later?They've effectively said that already, when they state that maturities are uncovered in 2026.The only thing they can argue is that they are confident of a takeover if given extra time. |
Hi zingaro,I mentioned on my Twitter thread why I'd changed my mind."Key line in Stifel note (after meeting mgmt) caused me to switch my #TLW exposure."To repay TLW 3/25, the Board needs get comfortable with the refinancing options available to Tullow"Also didn't commit to meeting maturities in last RNS.When language changes, I take notice. |
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