Good volume on a spike....back in here. |
FWIW afaics average of all 2024 2H gross Jubilee cargos to date (which in itself is ave of the post 5 day brent price on/after bill of lading date) is about $78.75. Jubilee would seem to be somewhat under 90K now, maybe 87.5K bopd. Aug was probably closer to 90K.
Isn't the arbitration result (unless delayed) due Oct/Nov? |
The average annual price of Brent crude oil stood at 83.56 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024, according to preliminary data from August.
Oil price keeping tullow on track. |
Just received a call from IG trading, they have increased the margin on Tullow from 20% to 25%. I have an open long position, technical basis trade. Trying to figure out why IG increased margin just on this security. I am long Oil Dec contract too but has stayed 10% unchanged. |
Same for lots of companies. War does lots for the stock market.
Copper is a good example.
BAE systems etc etc |
According to US.gov Iran is preparing to conduct a missile strike on you know who.
(it's sad that TLW investors have to rely on war for an investment case) |
WSJ states " stocks fall, oil price rises " on Middle East conflict. Not with this dogs breath |
Middle East crisis live: Iran preparing to 'imminently' launch ballistic missile attack against Israel, US official warns https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/oct/01/israel-lebanon-attacks-live-blog-ground-offensive-hezbollah-hamas-gaza-war?CMP=share_btn_url |
Bit of a spike across the board on oilers from 14:30 |
 Jeffries downgrade to 20p ….ummmmm…;… methinks shorters are playing games. I have every confidence we must be getting close to a successful bond refinance . The branch profits tax tribunal ruling on a $700m claim from the Govt Of Ghana is due soon and I just cannot see Tullow losing based on previous challenges to PSCs with stabilisations clauses. The more the oil price goes down the quicker rig activity falls in US shale and production come into balance again. So long as you have adequate hedging for short term weakness. The recent brokers report saying Tullow would have a cash flow yield of 35% at US$60 oil is all you need to know. The J69 well looks a wipe out because of issues of connectivity not identified pre drill from old seismic but within about 12 months production will be replaced. I listened to Kosmos confirm their own 90+k gross production guidance for nigh on the next decade for Jubilee . Andy Inglis said the latest seismic methods are very accurate and will greatly assist future drilling proficiency. Dont get me wrong, a 10k gross loss of production from J69 is annoying but 17 of the other wells drilled on average came in per expectation. From what i have heard there is a small downgrade to reserves in one part of a field which has outperformed for a decade. I will probably be buying more today while everyone else is panicking . Good luck Booty
Please do not rely in the facts or opinions in the above post when making an investment decision. |
UT 1.25m at 21.38p ! |
Only good news is the 2026's are heading for 90%, which suggests they'll be able to buy some back at a discount. |
The lights are certainly starting to dim here, never fails to disappoint this one... |
Will the last one out please turn the lights out |
Off topic, but of interest.
Namibia. Chevron will soon begin drilling their well on the block that Rahul gave away for free. Will use Northern Ocean's highly rated Deepsea Bollsta. After that, rig comes to Ghana to conduct a DST on Afina-1X on a dayrate of $440k. More or less double the day rate TLW were paying for Maersk Adventurer. Also of passing interest as Afina is an old Tullow discovery, subsequently relinquished.
wrt the $440K/day. That is about the going rate these days which, i think, illustrates the hole TLW are in. They didn't make a huge amount of FCF with OP $85, JUB >90K bopd and a rig Day Rate at $230K. What will 2025 FCF generation look like; if OP<$70, JUB<85K (or even <80K) and rig Day Rate of $450K? |
If I'm not mistaken the only one of the above with a lower target price than the current stock price is TLW ! |
Thanks to Baron !Jefferies revising ratings and price targets in O&G overnight:#ENOG down to hold from buy, new target 1000p from 1350p#SQZ 170p from 185p#TLW 20p from 25p#HBR 360p from 400p#DEC 900p from 1015p#KOS 480p from 565p#PHAR 24p from 20p#CNE 220p from 175p |
New 52 week low 21.82 |
Suspected that would happen XX given Ghanas track record with the ENI take or pay deal
If Tullow curtail the gas supply then its back to more flaring after injection considerations or production cuts.
If Tullow are found to have Tax liability in Ghana then pay in Gas..
The World Bank approved a $300 million Development Policy Operation for Ghana in January.
Also the Ghana Petroleum fund perhaps they can tap that if they now have the payments up to date???
Ghana breaks ground on first $12-billion phase of downstream petroleum hub.
If that takes off what then? If they want to process there own Oil would Nationalisation follow.?
Reliable payments come from Export of Oil long may that continue. |
Uh-Oh! 2024 YTD GSA revenue received: $0.00
"Tullow Ghana has not been paid even $1 for the past nine months for gas supplied to Ghana Gas and Tullow is threatening to curtail supply of gas." |
Home Heating Oil Prices at a low, so fill up now, remember no more WFA! |
Aramco raises $3bn in debt sale as Saudi Arabia drops $100 barrel oil price
Saudi Arabia is preparing to increase its oil output to regain its market share, with abandoning its required oil price part of the plan.
Lets see how this plays out? |
I suggest that the figures will be within guidance. |
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