Tullett Prebon Share Discussion Threads

[tom111] 03/8/2014 17:01

With the Dow futures down 90 I quess the odds are the share price will be down tomorrow

[fabius1] 03/8/2014 14:13

tom111 - but then again, you could be right...

[tom111] 03/8/2014 10:49

Traded out again,still have a hunch this will drop again looking at the long term chart but then again I could be so wrong

[tom111] 01/8/2014 15:14

Lucky buy at 241p I quess

[brokerdaw] 29/7/2014 20:37

Jezza -

Yes time will tell. BGC accounts out Thursday which will be telling.

[jezza123] 29/7/2014 17:08

Brokerdaw -

I guess the point I was making is that in ex-growth industries like this one, there is a natural point at which consolidation (of all kinds) occurs... so we'll see :-)

[brokerdaw] 29/7/2014 16:16

I give GFI 12-18 months at best imo. That is one down.

[value viper] 29/7/2014 15:52

terry smith screwed up in past NOT accepting / agreeing to takeover ; arguably got greedy

[brokerdaw] 29/7/2014 15:24

Right Jezza....

Go to the Tullett presetation on their website. Then look at the margin returns of the other brokers. ICAP have already stated no interest as they are going completely electronic. GFI have a return of less than 1% and a sizeable debt to service. Tradition is privately owned and again their margin is very low, too low some would say. And Tulletts and BGC are in a court case. The management do need to get along. Clearly they don't.

So and Exchange. However, did the purhcase of E Speed work out ?

[fabius1] 29/7/2014 13:32

Well, if anyone feels like a nibble I think we might see 240 again.

[salpara111] 29/7/2014 13:16

Well, I was waiting for these results before making a decision about whether to buy or not but I don't feel moved one way or the other!
The basic problem I have is that, like ICAP, they keep referring to subdued trading as a result of lack of market volatility but my own feeling is that we are starting to see a structural shift which will see permanently lower trading volumes and their action in terms of pretty big headcount reductions would seem to confirm that which leaves us with the fundamental question.....where is any growth going to come from in the next few years?

[jezza123] 29/7/2014 13:02

right BROKERDAW -
it's not like historically in other sectors this ever happens. It's not like this might be basic principle of competitive markets that are mature and/or saturated. It's not like this is economics 101.

[brokerdaw] 29/7/2014 12:42

No chance of another broker, takeover merger. An exchange is most likely if at all.

[gostevie63] 29/7/2014 12:26

Thanks FABIUS1,

That is a very helpful explanation. Funnily enough, CLIG is one that's been on my watchlist for a long time now but I haven't yet pulled the trigger and bought.

[fabius1] 29/7/2014 12:01

Gostevie. Haven't had chance to look at the accounts but the divi is largely dependent on two key factors. On an accounting level, the accumulated P&L reserve to cover the divi and on a practical level, sufficent cash flow to actually pay it. It goes without saying that if the divi exceeds the above over time then something has to give. We have seen this dingdong debate over at CLIG re the divi. Both are sound companies in my view but struggling against headwinds. It happens but the gooduns make it through.

[tricia51] 29/7/2014 11:21

The arbitration award will cover the cost of the int div.
Settlement of about 23 mill GBP not included in June accounts as award determined this month.
See RNS 10 July.

[lonrho] 29/7/2014 11:01

yes Terry Smith and Michael Spencer from ICAP had a huge fall out. Top five in order are ICAP,Tullett,BGC,Tradition and GFI.

[jezza123] 29/7/2014 10:42

I agree - and what is significant here is that their previous CEO has moved on - a guy who was always going to block such a thing from happening - this new guy won't be such a stick in the mud.

[lonrho] 29/7/2014 10:10

there are five big players probably should go down to say three.

[jezza123] 29/7/2014 10:01

I would say merger more likely than takeover - this whole sector ripe for such activity

[value viper] 29/7/2014 09:40

needs a takeover imv ! ripe for grabbing, overseas suitors maybe (NRI)

[tom111] 29/7/2014 09:38

Bought in this morning at 2.41p hope I got it right

[gostevie63] 29/7/2014 08:24

Thanks again, lonrho. That is helpful.

[lonrho] 29/7/2014 08:20

normal operating earnings per share is 16p , the basic earnings per share is after the reorganisation cost to reduce headcount and protect profits, which should show through in the second half.The reorganisation costs are hopefully a one off this year and should not affect future cash flow and hence ability to pay dividends. It is also worth noting the company has no net debt.