yes but nothing we werent aware of yesterday. Strange how markets move from ecstasy to depression at the drop of yet another forecast/report. US payroll maybe or as one report says A win for the Eagles on Sunday spells disaster for stocks !! |
* slowing wider economy and sticky inflation forecast by autumn. |
 i haven't looked at gpe before, EI. i am reited out and from an allocation perspective, i made a decision to keep away from traditional offices until there is a definite trend in the right direction, at least in share price i am not against the subsector in principal at all. the sector in general looks very good value and probably full of good recovery plays.
gpe looks so much a better buy than CLI. compare their LTV of 23 to CLI's. all that the numbers mean to me, is that gpe can focus on the day job of making a profit from property, rather than a company which (imho in case of cli) needs to be thinking more about their finances rather than running shiny new buildings! rgl shows what can happen if a company doesn't keep an eye on the finances and the need to address this quickly if valuations fall.
looks like gpe did a rights issue for the right reason, ie to get cash to buy properties which have already fallen in value. and it looks like, from their interim report, that they made a good buy. as you may well have done. i can also imagine that they are the sort of company buying CLI's properties off them at a discount. might be worth your while digging around to see if the names of the properties they bought are anywhere in cli's old reports. if they are, it tells you about both company's short term prospects. and perhaps give you encouragement to increase your exposure? let me know if you find that might be the case! i can always re-allocate my subsector allocation to a different company.
the 5 year trend in gpe is still down (like virtually every other reit). you are the best judge of when you are happy deciding you enter a recovery play. i will post a log scale on gpe's page which shows it is touching the bottom of an inner trend channel. that might indicate it might make some short term upward movement. log chart sometimes helpful when speed of change is fast, but am deffo no expert.
but nothing stands out as alarming from the charts. there is something precipitous in cli's chart of a drop of over 25% in last 3 months, which to me says that the price knows something which is not widely known in the market. such as large institutional selling because they know something that little people like me don't know.
bw |
sf, CLI, in office, is beyond my tisk threshold as I've mentioned previously. I recently bought back in to GPE, just a small amount. |
looking good to me!
i can only assume some large institutional holders have greatly reduced their holdings across the entire reit sector which has led to falls across the board.
they should not all be tarred with the same brush.
when you read that the LTV is at 29%, it highlights the difficulty some of the office reits are in with LTVs near the 50% mark.
bbox is selling properties that other companies do at least want, hence the premiums to the valuations.
i am yet to be convinced that the time is right to get into office-dominated reits, who i can only assume are desperately trying to re-purpose their properties to bump up the valuations but are also at the same time dealing with vacancies.
i am happy to sit with this in my portfolio behaving like a bond, but always with the possibility of a bonus coming along in the meantime.
have a happy relaxing weekend with this in your portfolio! |
o/t but worth looking at Cord for datacentre type infrastructure fund - its dropped back a bit recently. Not many followers which on advfn I count as a plus ;-) |
And that lovely cash is being used to diversify out of Logistics into Digital Infrastructure (Data Centre).
All in all - a great update. |
@rimau/igoe indeed they've shown the way in extracting further value from the UKCM and its surely only a matter of time before they take one of their other peers on if share price don't recover. |
It just shows, these discounts to Nav with alot of these reits are beyond stupid, when companies can easily sell the assets they don't want for a premium... |
Update looks good and disposals are above nav and at the upper range of guidance. Recycling capital - £306.2 million of disposals above book value including £181.2 million of non-strategic UKCM assetsIn eight months, we have delivered the upper end of our £150-200 million guidance for UKCM non-strategic asset disposals and have continued our ongoing capital recycling programme.The UKCM non-strategic disposals achieved a 2.8% premium to the fair value at acquisition.- A further c. £150 million of UKCM non-strategic assets currently under offer.- Post completion of exchanged disposals, non-strategic assets will represent approximately 4.9% of total GAV.- £125.0 million of Big Box logistics disposals at a 3.3% premium to book value at 30 June 2024, forming part of our ongoing portfolio optimisation and capital recycling. |
I can understand why gilts are high, but just can't understand how interest rates are supposed to reduce inflation, when the inflation has been caused by external factors. (Certainly for the 2022-2024 period) |
These should hopefully get a boost when start reducing interest rates hopefully next month. More incentive to invest into high yielders if the interest rates and bond rate start going backwards.. |
Wouldn't surprise me if it's a ruse to stick a stick in Trumps spokes. Then again it wouldn't surprise me if it's true. If it is true there will be a huge fall out. I suspect the former but ??. |
And the reason behind today's rout in tech stocks may just bad news to the Datacentre market.... DYOR
I hope not btw - I need all the good news I can get :-) |
UKCP was to fund the existing pipeline on logistics/warehouses Data centres is extra to that and requires a lot more capital to build out than a regular warehouse The development yield on logistics is c6-7 so it's hard to justify raising equity - but at 8-9 on data centres it's easier to get the maths to work |
If they can get 9 yield on cost that ought be 10-11 levered They could raise equity accretivly at current share price to do that Though clearly market would like to see some more non-core properties sold first |
That was the analysts view at the time, yes.
It will be interesting to see how the sales of assets rate against their NAV. We are overdue news.
Yields on gilts beginning to climb again. |
I understood that the recent merger with UK Commercial Property REIT obviated any need to undertake an equity raise because it enabled the sale of non core assets to fund this type (Data Centre) of acquisition of land and development. I appreciate those disposals have not yet occurred but I would have thought that was a positive in that I hope BB are negotiating hard on price and not giving these away. |
I suspect an equity raise would be popular with investors. It would be with this one. |
FWIW :-
Goldman Sachs raises Tritax Big Box REIT price target to 210 (200) pence - 'buy' |
I haven't really read it in detail or digested it yet but I had a suspicion that the data centres are appealing to them as a future route for the reasons they outlined |
Just for clarification, I am referring to the last results' statement and the earmarked H2 disposables on which we've had no news. |
Not sure if they've definitely said They are building a pipeline If their share price rises giving them a competitive cost of equity then they'll likely hold at least some of it via raising equity to fund the build out without putting too much strain on the balance sheet But if not then there's nothing to stop them selling Raising equity and holding is likely to be their preferred route - not least because it means more management fees But doesn't mean they have to do that |
I didn't think the plan was to sell it. Am I wrong? |
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