Not sure if they've definitely said They are building a pipeline If their share price rises giving them a competitive cost of equity then they'll likely hold at least some of it via raising equity to fund the build out without putting too much strain on the balance sheet But if not then there's nothing to stop them selling Raising equity and holding is likely to be their preferred route - not least because it means more management fees But doesn't mean they have to do that |
I didn't think the plan was to sell it. Am I wrong? |
They could fund it from their balance sheet, that would stretch their resources but they could then sell it More likely though is that they fund planning and soft costs and then sell it via a forward fund - that would get them most of the development profits without putting any material strain on the balance sheet |
Good point EI |
In terms of BBOX funding CAPEX (yesterday's announcement) from their..ongoing capital recycling programme... We've not had a single disposal RNS for many months. |
Interesting article in The Times today, behind paywall:
“[Data centres] are very similar to the multi-deck buildings we provide for logistics [companies], so we’ve got the skills inhouse,” Colin Godfrey, chief executive of Tritax Big Box, said. “But for the same size building, you can get significantly higher rental flows.”
That is largely because of “supply-demand characteristics”, he said, estimating that demand for data centres is exceeding supply by about 50 per cent. That has improved the economics of building data centres, which yield about 8 to 10 per cent a year versus 6 to 8 per cent for traditional warehouses. |
o/t but if anyone hasn't seen CORD - that's a datacentre infrastructure business, although the share price has flown a bit. |
great news skinny!
rare to see a future opportunity in a trading update materialise into something so quickly.
and i thought it was pie in the sky
i like this company even better now
best part of the release was " The UK Government has recently classified data centres as critical national infrastructure"
planning permission likely to be granted then.
hopefully we will see more of the same.
do hope bbox can keep hold of this manager, s/he obviously has bigger similar projects in mind.
sp up over 4% on this news |
nice recent article exploring what is going on with reits atm
hxxps://www.propertychronicle.com/the-problem-with-uk-reits/ |
Agree the price is driven by other fixed income sources. That's what I meant by bond-like proxies.
It will behave less like a gilt as the ltv value comes down (if management want to bring it down). A high LTV essentially leverages gilt-related share price movements?
At least it is a growing business that someone might want. Wish I could say same about Gilts.
UK market is cheap to an overseas investor and my guess is the Trump 2 inauguration =peak US. and a lot of funds will be looking for a boring new home and this and UK reits will fit the bill.
Whether interest rates go up or not, bbox is now at a valuation level that likely will make a better total return than cash in the bank. I'll leave Gilts to the pro's |
Where are their H2 planned disposals.. |
decent summary Sigmund, i'm in a similar position to you.
One thing that you forgot and is vitally important is Gilt yields - this is the key driver for us in price movements. Why invest here when you can get similar returns & far less risk with Government paper.
So yeah -reduction in Interest Rates & reduction in Yields on Gilts will start the upward march on this share price
It's not designed to be an exciting stock -but trapping the Divi yields on offer atm in a stock that I consider to be well run and secure is attractive - so i'm not going anywhere. I'm overweight so wont buy more but am happy to 'bottom draw' this. It hurts sometimes, I am impatient, but the maths is good. |
 i am a PI so small fry
am at a small capital loss but overall gain, so not great but not bad
reviewing the history, this sector took 2 hits, one from interest rate rises and one from amazon saying it had over-rented this type of property. however amazon's issue was primarily in us where there is land everywhere. i have certainly not seen any empty boxes near me.
i suspect most large shareholders were pension funds holding these as bond-like proxies, who sold off quickly as interest rates went up. and they haven't re-entered the market.
right now even if interest rates don't come down, they look cheap at 133p today.
LTV is about 30% and most debt has a 5 year maturity, so hopefully no shocks coming. 95% of debt is at fixed or capped rates.
inflation-linked upwards-only rental reviews
very diverse occupier demand. amazon is largest at 12.3%
average logistics-type unexpired lease is 10 years
the independent valuer estimate of market rent is 22% higher than the current rental level, so room to grow that. this can often have a significant positive effect on the value of the properties, so likely asset appreciation.
not much new supply (not seeing much new building in my region)
clients are responsible for maintenance etc
considerable sector consolidation going on
online retailing is a growing market and bbox is one of the shovels even if it isn't a "pick" right now.
could the exploration of expanding into data centres and the power that these consume be the spark for a re-rating? it is all pie in the sky atm but their infrastructure knowledge and land bank and position of this would fit bbox nicely?
yield today is 5.4%, trading at 29% discount. this is a buy for me along with some similar reits. and if interest rates surprise to the upside causing further share price falls, happy to increase exposure. |
Check posters other posts and then filter so they go blank. Especially the “wake up” types. Same phrase as the conspiracy lot use. |
FWIW :- Bank of America cuts Tritax Big Box price target to 180 (210) pence - 'buy' |
Isn't that the Labour govt? |
Simple answer - vote Reform |
True Mousse. But we vote for them |
Sadly we have a binary of incompetence at play - Baily & Reeves. Neither of which has a lot in the way of brain power and less understranding of how complex economies work.
Not that Liz Truss was any better - in fact she was an order of magnitude worse but I do despair at the quality of people that run our country of late. |
FWIW :- JPMorgan cuts Tritax Big Box price target to 190 (200) pence - 'overweight' |
Something needs to lift the share price up though - while I am here for earnings I do need to remain in the black on capital.
Today's yield is 5.3% i believe. I can buy treasury 4.75% yield gilts and be sure i get the cash back. Currently they looks like a better bargain.
Some good news would be welcome. Or.... interest rate drops but I am not sure this will happen much. I correctly predicted only 2 drops in 2025 (wish i'd been wrong) - now the Governments of the day look like they will increase the monney supply even more - which if course impacts inflation upwards. So I shall go out on a limb and say only 2 reductions in BofE interest rates in 2025 also. both 0.25%, first maybe in May/June once winter is over and gas prices etc start to drop.
I have zero faith in Trump doing anything positive for anyone except himself i'm afraid. So tin hats on!!!!!
Gonna be a long wait! |
A quiet board is a good sign |
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