Sadly we have a binary of incompetence at play - Baily & Reeves. Neither of which has a lot in the way of brain power and less understranding of how complex economies work.
Not that Liz Truss was any better - in fact she was an order of magnitude worse but I do despair at the quality of people that run our country of late. |
FWIW :- JPMorgan cuts Tritax Big Box price target to 190 (200) pence - 'overweight' |
Something needs to lift the share price up though - while I am here for earnings I do need to remain in the black on capital.
Today's yield is 5.3% i believe. I can buy treasury 4.75% yield gilts and be sure i get the cash back. Currently they looks like a better bargain.
Some good news would be welcome. Or.... interest rate drops but I am not sure this will happen much. I correctly predicted only 2 drops in 2025 (wish i'd been wrong) - now the Governments of the day look like they will increase the monney supply even more - which if course impacts inflation upwards. So I shall go out on a limb and say only 2 reductions in BofE interest rates in 2025 also. both 0.25%, first maybe in May/June once winter is over and gas prices etc start to drop.
I have zero faith in Trump doing anything positive for anyone except himself i'm afraid. So tin hats on!!!!!
Gonna be a long wait! |
A quiet board is a good sign |
Further sector consolidation is odds on.
SHED likely to merge with LMP or BBOX, LMP more likely with their lower discount to NAV.
GRI looks reasonable, IF you consider occupancy will hold up around current levels and gilt yields begin to trend lower in 2025. |
Decent yield at this price cf gilts. Could be a long wait for permanent capital growth though. |
Gilt yields are what to watch re the sector, particularly atm. |
Thats a possibility pans and normally I am pretty sure there would be a lot of investors taking the bait - me included but the outlook is indeed so bleak and its not hard to imagine the bottom being quite some way off yet. Will the next inflation figures show an improvement? Will there be another rate cut this year or indeed next? Indeed its crossed my mind that come April the London stock market could be in real trouble. Quite a lot of stocks are passing their 52 week lows already. I think we can forget a Christmas lift. |
Everything is so bleak @scruff1 could it possibly be a contrarian buying opportunity ? |
For a well run company with a well received set of results that included increased profits and dividend this fall is well overdone (I hope). It is understandable though. I for one would have added and am still tempted but with this economically illiterate government, inflation rising on the back of increased energy prices and with Miliband in charge of energy policy and with the consequences of Reeves ridiculous budget having months yet before it properly detonates and with interest rates even possibly rising then investing in any company on the LSE let alone a REIT is too much of a risk for me. The real worry is that I cannot see where the cavalry can possibly come from. If the Ukraine war ends, the conflict in the ME ends and China's economy bursts into life we are still stuck with this completely incompetent government for another four and a half years. I cant remember a more bleak outlook |
Could do with some good news here. An update on UKCM properties should be positive. |
 I hear the comments above re: UK debt, taxation, Yields etc.
BBOX share price - In a slowly dropping interest rate environment it's just hit a 12 month low. Gilt yields have gone up and as so many point out this is always inverse to BBOX Share Price. Uncomfortable, and we only have the NAV to pin our hope to for short-medium term drivers of share price
I am trying hard to simply take the long term view of this - while it's 'cheap', and Divi's are rolling, compound the Divi's into more Stock and wait for the good days to return.
I did but with a long term horizon - just that long term is longer term than i anticipated!
I've copied some analyst ratings below for context. All pre-budget of course.
"A number of equities research analysts have issued reports on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reissued an "overweight" rating on shares of Tritax Big Box REIT in a report on Friday, July 12th. Berenberg Bank reissued a "buy" rating and issued a GBX 182 ($2.37) target price on shares of Tritax Big Box REIT in a research note on Wednesday, August 28th. Finally, Jefferies Financial Group reiterated a "buy" rating and issued a GBX 210 ($2.73) price objective on shares of Tritax Big Box REIT in a report on Friday, July 12th. Five equities research analysts have rated the stock with a buy rating, Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has a consensus rating of "Buy" and a consensus target price of GBX 191.75 ($2.50)." |
as well as inertia :-) |
Well you could be riddled with worse things scruff TBF!. |
@scruff1 the buy list has expanded considerable over last week but feeling overly cautious atm |
PHNX AND MNG are around 10% but there is currently a fair bit of downside. Mind you with a labour govt downside is about all we have |
I see Pantheon Macroeconomics is now also expecting stagflation to occur in the UK. The future is not looking very rosy. Good luck anyway nick. Prices are so low now that the usual instinct is to buy some of your preferred stocks but everything is so unstable and unpredictable its all very disconcerting that I am riddled with inertia |
@scruff i like 6%+ yield currently to give some downside mind you loaded up on SUPR yesterday only to see down below 70 today so your assessment is pretty spot on. |
I never thought it might be worth trading this after buying late '23 ! Its behaving like some sort of cyclical stock, but there's no cycle afaik. |
I finally bought a small amount before the close. |
Well your intervention point must be low. It hasnt been at this level since it crashed in mid 2022. He may toss her an olive branch but after this budget she's unlikely to float. I cant see where the lift is going to come from. Everywhere you read from Dyson, O'Leary, the farmers, the landlords -property and pubs, private schools, just about every business owner you can think of is in fear for their future and investors have been unloading. Unions and public sector may be happy - for now - but they are not the ones creating their wages. They are taking out of the pot that they are destroying. I was going to add after results but very little chance of me adding anything to my portfolio until I see that the UK is going in any direction other than downwards and imo this government is composed of a bunch of student like ideologists with little political acumen and with virtually no understanding of life outside of a university common room or a political meeting room. The damage they have done in less than 4 months is mindblowing. By 2029 it doesnt bear thinking about but can anyone honestly see anything other than stagflation? This budget has all the makings of it. Starmer is completely out of his depth. Ditto Lammy, Reeves, Cooper, Rayner et al. Is 7 of them have never had a job? The Tories were shocking but this lot have shocked me even more so. |
@scruff suspect Bailey will toss Reeves an olive branch this week but BBOX still above my intervention point |
Problem now imo is that interest rates could be going the wrong way. Usually the Labour effect. Gilts and ISAs could be back in pole as opposed to REITs |
Appreciate the view. |
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