Tritax Big Box Reit Share Discussion Threads

[williamcooper104] 04/1/2023 16:45

10 year gilt yields in about 12bps, biggest positive move since around mid-November So if we get a normalish recession plus rates falling then ought to be good for defensive commerical property asset classes Seems to be more of a general consensus that we are over peak inflation and that with negative real wage growth then absent another big global shock, the worry in a few years time could be deflation I think QEs going to be restrained in the future and yields won't get as low as where, but if the neutral gilt yield is c2.5-3 then high quality commerical prop yields ought to be 4 something

[rathlindri] 04/1/2023 14:59

Good to see a positive start to the new year

[yump] 04/1/2023 13:57

Market works ahead so probably looking to interest rates moderating, which improves relative return for any good income stocks

[scruff1] 03/1/2023 18:16

Mmm. Just a feeling only based on snippets when reading around but I think there is a bit of upward pressure on REITS at least those with quality properties. There is no doubt a lot of uncertainty still and recessionary pressures but (and I could be wrong) I reckon most are probably priced in - we have had more than our fair share of bad days. Whilst the pressure may be on the high street with shop closures on the rise the same as far as I can ascertain doesnt seem to be true of on line shopping and lots of people I speak to talk about how busy all the retail parks are. There also apparently has been little if any fall in demand for sheds and boxes. So hopefully we are over the worst. Would be interesting to hear the opinions of others

[18bt] 03/1/2023 15:22

REITS seem in demand today

[yump] 03/1/2023 12:29

I guess we’ll now see if this is a move off a potential bottom trendline.

[scruff1] 28/12/2022 17:25

Not so much a period more an era like the pleistocene otherwise known as the ice age. Obviously it's taken folk 1m yrs to wake up to global warming so theres hope for Bbox yet

[yump] 28/12/2022 10:50

Thanks for all the informative comments here.

Been shifting investments into income stocks over the last few months - luckily ? caught this during what looks like a bottoming period.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 20/12/2022 11:58

Scruff, I echo your comments about William, thought this for a long time.
Seasons greetings to both of you.

[williamcooper104] 18/12/2022 14:16

Spent too long looking at commercial property

[scruff1] 17/12/2022 08:52

William your breadth of knowledge I find impressive

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 22:56

These are getting funnier "If you are struggling to make profit in the forex trading market, is probably because you have been doing it in an absolute wrong way" No - if you are struggling to make money in the forex trading market it's because you aren't a prop trader at a bank front running your order book Dear oh dear

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 20:49

Or indeed both Management have been incompetent at best It's a strange one, first reit I think that I've ever seen being totally hammered where balance sheet hasn't been an issue But looks likely that the shares get suspended on 31 Dec

[scruff1] 16/12/2022 20:39

Yep. HOME is a strange one. Its not totally clear yet (as far as I can tell anyway) what has actually gone on there. I cant decide whether the shorters are over egging it or whether the management are just bent. Will know soon but its not one for me

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 20:23

Yep; SGRO down 4 percent and only other REIT down, ball park, as much today is the potential fraud HOME

[williamcooper104] 16/12/2022 20:19

It's not that irrational Yields for prime logistics have gone from 3.25 to 5 (if any end of that range is irrational it's 3.25) Need to rerun numbers but think the implied yield now is about 5.25 percent So looking cheap, but not a massive/irrational discount

[scruff1] 16/12/2022 20:15

speedy
There have been quite a few similar reports over the last few months all giving reasons why logistics are well placed - esprcially the ones like BBOX with high quality facilities. I can only think that as its one of the highest profiles with a fairly large interest behind it then its also best placed to get the most flak. Its been the same since Amazon pulled back after lockdowns. You just know that when theres news like todays its gonna be one that gets the biggest pummelling. It is also capable of shooting up more than the rest on the good(well better -days). I get the feeling that its a bit of a coiled spring and when the mood changes (whenever that will be) it will have its BIG day. Bit of a waiting/hoping game at the mo. BBOX are not doing much wrong

[speedsgh] 16/12/2022 16:46

UK Logistics Market Faces 'Significant Supply Constraints', Colliers Warns -

Supply-Demand Imbalance Also Drives Annual Rental Growth to Record 12.4% in Third Quarter

UK industrial & logistics property vacancy rates for units larger than 100,000 square feet reached a historic low of 3.1% between the second and third quarters of 2022, Colliers' analysis shows...

[continues behind a paywall]

[stewart64] 16/12/2022 16:45

Scruff..totally agree...some UK dinosaur stocks of the past have held up better than BBOX. And warehousing is very much the future. The Market really is irrational

[scruff1] 16/12/2022 13:47

Not sure why BBOX is getting singled out for a particularly harsh thrashing though

[stewart64] 16/12/2022 08:30

Sentiment rock bottom on UK plc just now. I agree though the warehouse sector is one of the few areas that will at the minimum flatline in a deep recession. Couldn't say the same for retail or office real estate. I'm certainly interested in this if we get further retracement off the 150s. It's probably a screaming buy now in the mid 140s but the general Market correction might pull it down further.

[igoe104] 12/12/2022 08:27

WHR have come out with a strong update, saying warehouse market experiencing high demand. So why is this falling ???