Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[fsawatcher] 17/11/2017 15:38

FSA seems to have gone a bit quiet...I wonder why?

You tell me wingspanner ??

I wonder why you fink I gone quiet ? >?

Jus coz i leave yo to play on your own dont me i not watchin ya

under the eye

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 12:57

Apologies...the sale is in there. Margin improvement is not.

[lw425] 17/11/2017 12:53

Have you also allowed for the higher overall margins due to the disposal?

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 12:50

And, if the sale goes through then you can add 4+ mln dollars to those numbers...this was also my reasoning behind average 2900 bopd through 2018 as we lose 200 bopd through the sale. My number assume that but don't give you the cash. Apologies

[lw425] 17/11/2017 12:37

Thanks and much more relevant.

I think anyone buying now will make a small fortune or a large one depending on how many you can tuck away.

With no SPT, to have 20m in the bank ($55 crude) with no debt end 2018 would be incredible given the prospects going forward.

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 12:33

Without SPT: 28=1.7 / 40=8.1 / 49=14 // 51=15.7 / 55=19 / 60=23

[lw425] 17/11/2017 12:31

so if $45 = 10.7m and $49 = 14m

then

$53 = 17.3m

$57 = 20.6m closing cash 2018 - all in a year when debt is being paid off in full.


that's with no SPT


Looks like we have a cash cow generator here.

Profits in 2019 will be off the scale.

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 12:28

The sheet allows you to easily vary bopd, royalties, opex/G&A, SPT (18% on the sheet owing to allowances etc)& current starting cash balance (which I put at 13.5).

Good luck all

I have now concluded my analysis of SPT and decided -in the light of this - it is annoying, but is irrelevant...this company presents more and more value to shareholders the further we go through 2018 and presents a great opportunity at these levels.

Its just a case of watching the price of oil.

W/GO

[lw425] 17/11/2017 12:22

Now rework without SPT as it's highly likely SPT will not exist.

We trust you will be motivated to do this?

You want us to see the difference, right?

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 12:17

Apologies: I mention 2019 in that post ... it should read 2018

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 12:15

Right...

I have updated my 2018 forecast sheet and included the following assumptions: 2900 bopd, accurate royalties / ORR, accurate opex, accurate SPT (give or take), accurate take in from monthly hedge, accurate current cash, accurate 2018 outgoings...showing close of 2018 cash position in dollar increments between 28 dollars and 64 dollars depending on average 2018 sales price.

Highlights as follows for the close of 2019 Trinity cash balance assuming an average 2019 Barrel of oil sale price: $28 = 1.7 mln cash position / $40 = 8.1 mln cash position / $45 = 10.7 / $49 = 14 mln // $51 = 8.3 mln / $55 = 10.9 mln / $60 = 14.2 mln and ascending (though I do not allow for the loss from the top side of the cylinder/collar/risk reversal hedge at $60 and above...quite frankly..that would be an exceedingly nice problem to have!

If you would like the excel sheet, I will (for a limited time only) make it available if you email me at gabeoak476 @ gmail.com. I will not disclose your email or email you anything other than this sheet...my email will show up as Gabriel Oak.

My thanks to FSA and the specter of SPT for getting me off my harris to do this...

FSA seems to have gone a bit quiet...I wonder why?

[lw425] 17/11/2017 12:12

So in 2019 with no debt and conservative 3500bopd

Annual profits of 25m

PE 10

Market cap 250m

Share price say 80p

Who in their right mind would sell now as TRIN has reserves for around 20 years before further exploration drilling.

As Wingspan kindly points out this seems to be very low risk now as the remaining debt is easily servicable from our substantial and sustainable cash flow.

[spellbrook] 17/11/2017 11:58

Bruce will look at all options at the appropriate time,he mentioned a company (can’t remember which one ) which had prospects opposite one of our sites, may have to relisten, this could even be a joint venture

[bones] 17/11/2017 11:41

The possibility of a farm in was also raised in the presentation which would be another way of freeing up cash for the CLN's.

[lw425] 17/11/2017 11:31

wingspan - it was 12.5m cash end sept. so you can probably add another 1m.

still you were only about 3.5m out then.

well done

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 11:25

Thank you Bones...so that implies an end of 2018 cash balance of 10.2 mln.

Which I think will be a phenomenal achievement...really, really positive at that point...clean balance sheet, ready to springboard to 2019.

[bones] 17/11/2017 11:04

Wingspan, I believe Bruce said TRIN has 12.5m, not 10m, in the bank right now.

[wingspan] 17/11/2017 10:56

Ross: yes...that is correct. In order to close the CLNs the other debt (7mln as stated by Bruce) needs to be cleared with BIR and MEEI first.

There are some decisions ahead concerning the ordering of things...please see my below back of envelope musings (and anyone, please correct!) for a Dec 2018 position...none of the below allows for exciting developments...its just run of the mill.

Cash balance of 10 mln currently.
plus 4.5 mln in Dec (hopefully) for a dropping of costs and losing 200bopd.
plus 13 months of conservative cash accretion of 1mln per month(?) (depending on oil and drilling and overhauls etc...this is net of royalties and SPT).

= 27.5.

minus:
6 mln of (stated by Bruce) CAPEX and drilling (why the 1mln above is conservative).
minus accelerated 7.5 mln to BIR & MEEI.
minus 7.7 mln of CLN close out.


= end of 2018 balance of 6.3 mln (with some upside for the conservative 13 months production I assume).

This will leave the balance sheet in a commanding position...as Bruce says a capital raise will be necessary to drill the offshore wells (6mln dollars per well assuming 1000 BOPD)

Can anyone see anything wrong in my assumptions?

Thanks

WINGSPAN

[che7win] 17/11/2017 10:30

Oil is rocketing!

[mark10101] 17/11/2017 10:27

Ross that is my understanding, the government debt needs to be cleared before we are allowed to repay the CLN. It will be wooden dollars, means to an end.

[whiskeyinthejar] 17/11/2017 09:49

Mark, I think oil companies might be insiders on SPT. So they know the details coming but can't say. But Im not sure. Might be a good question for Tracey. However changes are supposedly going to encourage investment in oil and I think dramatic change is needed if they want Trinidad oil production rising substantially. Especially because other oil companies aren't as low cost as Trinity. Particularly Petrotrin!