Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[the big fella] 29/3/2017 16:07

Indeed. Oil looking much stronger over the last couple of sessions. Only a matter of time until that feeds back into our share price.

[che7win] 29/3/2017 16:01

Oil jumped again at 3pm, US figs better than expected.

[lexus880] 29/3/2017 14:26

AimMafia: what results, have I missed something.
I may put more money in tomorrow. Looks like a very strong buy to me. These results should be excellent.

[mark10101] 29/3/2017 09:05

Feels like WTI has turn a corner, steady buying looks like short closing to me, could cascade later today when US opens.

[che7win] 29/3/2017 09:04

Brent up strongly again this morning.

[aimmafia] 28/3/2017 20:39

I may put more money in tomorrow. Looks like a very strong buy to me. These results should be excellent.

[mark10101] 28/3/2017 17:49

Chart looking stronger and looks like we have found support. We are over sold and oil has bounced, surprised it did not trigger buying at the end of the day, surely tomorrow will be a better day.

[woodpeckers] 28/3/2017 17:38

It states that they have received more than one offer and sounds as though they are very confident that the sale will happen and that they feel financially on track to proceed with the "prudent growth" plan.

Whether it is in the presentation or not, confirmation that it has actually happened should be received well by the market.

"The combination of existing cash balances, proceeds from the placing and internal cash generation enables Trinity to return to drilling."

[lw425] 28/3/2017 16:39

the sale of the non core asset is already budgeted for in the 2017 expenses. it's not 'extra bonus money'. if it fell through then that would be a significant hole to fill in the accounts.

see presentation.

[mark10101] 28/3/2017 16:26

Oil up 1.8%, may translate into a late flurry and if it holds hopefully we can build from here.

[woodpeckers] 28/3/2017 12:09

Sounds as though we should hear news of the sale of Brighton anytime as they are already at draft SPA stage.
More money in the coffers should help reaffirm that the business is heading in the right direction.

[aimmafia] 28/3/2017 11:58

13p getting smashed. Wouldn't be surprised if we saw 15-17p by Friday here.

[mark10101] 28/3/2017 11:35

LW425, that reads across well if the dross we want to get rid of valuation would put us close to current valuation. It ignores our 2P and 2C is conservativatly 40m. It also ignores rigs and infrastructures as well as the current production and cash.

Oil firming up and hopefully finally starting the steady climb back up.

[lw425] 28/3/2017 11:03

page 21 of the presentation suggests they will be selling a non core asset with reserves of 2m.

page 19 suggest offers around $3.6m

so the read across valuation for 20m reserves is therefore $36.6m or £29m. ????

that is around 10p a share.

ummmmm................

[aimmafia] 28/3/2017 09:31

Trin is going to do just fine. The market want to see a solid update and we will push on from there, we are extremely cheap at these levels.As I keep saying, i fully expect a strong update in less than 15 working days.Trin are doing a blinding job.

[whiskeyinthejar] 28/3/2017 07:45

Thanks for the replies.

Wingspan, i also think it's reasonable to expect some increase in oil price in medium term. There's so many projects and companies that can't cope with $50 wti. Like BP and Shell.

Or Venezuela needs oil prices much higher and things getting desperate. Trinidad has offered Venezuela some toilet paper in return for oil:




Anyway, I agree that on advfn there's too much obsessing over individual trades and people stating when they've bought or sold when it doesn't really matter. We aren't in competition with each other. But I like to chat sometimes about day to day stuff so Id be a hypocrite to criticise anyone for posting about short term stuff.

The thing about hedges is you don't need necessarily to fix the sale price. You can put a floor on your sales without putting any ceiling. Or you can put a floor say at $50 and a ceiling at $60. So I hope they've hedged.

The problem for OPEC I think is if prices fall, oil companies have mostly hedged so shale will be fine but OPEC will hurt. So I think from now on OPEC must be committed to keeping oil prices up.

[the big fella] 27/3/2017 15:53

Indeed Whiskey

[whiskeyinthejar] 27/3/2017 13:37

So on value we're trading at around estimated annual revenue ($45m =£35.7m)

Conservatively assuming $45 realised oil price and 2750 bopd production.

I think its more useful to use cash flow above break even because some companies produce lots of oil, but they have high costs.

So we're trading at about 3x free cash ($15million =£12million). That's very cheap imo.

[whiskeyinthejar] 27/3/2017 12:58

The $8.4M quoted I think is free cash flow (cash flow after all costs) from October to March. So during restructuring from when they last published figures until now.

It cant be full year because that conflicts with other numbers given in presentation (slide 15 says gross revenue of $50m at 3k bpd).

Break even is about $30 (slide 12). So they make about $15 free cash per barrel at $45 oil price realised.

12 months :

Revenue: $45x 2750 x 365 =$45 million
Free cash: $15x 2750 x 365 =$15 million.

Slide 15 talks about first phase coming up. 3000 bopd. Quotes gross revenue of about $50 million.

Or I calculate:

$45x 3000 x 365 =$49.2 million

[mark10101] 27/3/2017 12:38

LW425, I believe the long term liabilities are related to tax. When we relisted it was on the basis of £9m net debt so I am assuming the presentation is not being clear and any capital raised would be for TGAL in 2018.

[whiskeyinthejar] 27/3/2017 12:35

These are historic figures. Presentation talks about giving context.

Slide 18 says its describing the capital situation position at end of last October.

Slide 19 is about how they restructured and spent the cash.

[lw425] 27/3/2017 12:21

page 18 still states Long Term Liabilities even at end 2017 of $15.48m

one can start to see why more capital may be needed?

[mdw1] 27/3/2017 12:18

But equally there is no need for a capital raise.

[esmerelda] 27/3/2017 12:15

I don't think that is what the company is suggesting they will achieve. If you look at page 19 of the presentation the 2017 cash from operations is forecast to be $8.4m based on production of 2,750bopd and a WTI of $50. $6.5m of this is forecast to be spent on new wells and workovers so no meaningful further debt reduction occurs in 2017.