Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[aimmafia] 30/1/2017 18:25

Upon further inspection, 805k trade was from 26th which at that time of day would Of meant a buy. Rock on

[woodpeckers] 30/1/2017 17:40

Happy things will play out well here, just needs a little time, the figures stack up.

[mark10101] 30/1/2017 17:24

Thanks very interesting with the late reported. Suspect it is another sell from the placing but a good chunk to get sold and out of the way.

[woodpeckers] 30/1/2017 17:24

Hi mark, DMA stands for direct market access. Apparently some investors can bypass the market makers and trade directly from the order book. Afraid I can't tell you more, never quite understood it.

Good to see ZENGAS here!

[zengas] 30/1/2017 17:17

Level 2 shows you what other order sizes are placed on the buy/sell side and can usually be inside what the MMs are offering.

There's an 806,000 delayed trade at 7.875p from before noon just reported so hard to know if a buy or sell but bang on the closing price used at 4.30pm.

[mark10101] 30/1/2017 17:10

Interesting, what are the DMA orders?

[zengas] 30/1/2017 16:55

At close on L2 the tighter DMA orders which were better than the MMs buy/sell price all day mostly go off quickly at the close. Then your left with only the MM spread hence what looks like a fall right at the close.

[mark10101] 30/1/2017 16:41

Bizzare games with price, the whole day all trades above 8p including all sells and we close below 8p.

[astorcourt] 30/1/2017 15:45

ssshh not yet

[astorcourt] 30/1/2017 14:25

This one feels like a coiled spring.....about to go pop

[aimmafia] 30/1/2017 13:04

Softly softly multi bagger

[okuta] 30/1/2017 13:01

yes , sshhh , plenty on the bid but hard to get any on the offer and we're up again,goodo

[aimmafia] 30/1/2017 08:36

I don't think we will be far off to be honest

[jungmana] 30/1/2017 08:32

I expect 10p by Friday. Gla

[kaos3] 27/1/2017 14:30

I do not know about waves. first 2 - 8. second 6 - 14. and then 14 - 20. ?
in between small correction or consolidation which we are witnessing consisting of 2-3 smaller moves



must study.
any one knows for real?

[aimmafia] 27/1/2017 14:19

Strong base at 7.7 now... 9p coming Monday / Tuesday

[mdw1] 27/1/2017 14:04

Great post Zengas, can only be onwards and upwards from here; thanks for posting.

[the big fella] 27/1/2017 13:08

Zengas - I have not seen that before but it sure sums things up nicely. At 8p these are a screaming buy. The hot money has long since gone which means we have a foundation for a significant re-rating over the months ahead.

[zagrosfold] 27/1/2017 12:34

Basically free money haha

[zengas] 27/1/2017 12:20

The Share Talk article published just over a week ago on 18th January


" 5: I note Trinity is still significantly undervalued compared to its peers in Trinidad, in one case nearly 10% on fundamental grounds with the debt issue significantly reduced. However will Trinity close this gap? "

(and the reply) -
" The market and investors need to be made aware of where Trinity stands today in regards to the balance sheet, asset base and management structure to make a strong differentiation from the past. This should help educate the market to enable a fair valuation to be had.
It is not for us to provide peer valuations but if investors look at metrics such as enterprise value (EV)/2P reserves and EV/production (bopd) the relative valuation gap and thus opportunity should be clear."

Too true in my opinion re looking at the valuation metrics. I think there are short termers in sub 3p and some overhang from the placing making a healthy profit hence the supply for now, but for how long.

Here's my answer to that question and why I've bought in.

282.5m shares @ 8p = £22.5m m/cap.

They have slashed breakeven costs on both off and on shore production.
Long term net debt is only $9.7m and short-medium term it's actually a net cash position of $4.5m but at current production it should be paid down easily.
Break even off shore $29.50/b and might fall some more (incl royalties, opex etc).
Break even on shore = $18/b.

Their quoted assumption was getting $45/b when the WTI oil price was $50/b.
Assuming 10% discount to the latest price - then we should be getting $50/b now.

Doing 1400 bopd onshore at $50/b less $18/b breakeven gives $32/b or $16.4m/yr.
Off shore at 1200 bopd at $50/b less $30/b breakeven gives $20/b or $8.76m/yr.
That's currently $48m revenue and $25m+ currently back after all costs so over $2m month.

If they progress that to the 3,000 bopd target pro rata from on and offshore that would take revenue to $60m and $30m/yr back at $2.5m month. Where can you get such an undervalued opportunity such as this that is already up and running to such a degree ?

Valuing 20.7 mmbo P2 at just $5/b = $103.5m (£80m).
19.8m 2C at $1/b = further $19.8m (£15m).

Valuation currently of £22.5m versus £95m of both production/reserves value = fair value of 33p. The valuation post restructuring is totally and unequivocally cheap – Where else do you get such significant revenue, net backs, production, both P2 and 2C discoveries so cheaply?.

As others have rightly said, there are some other oil Cos with lesser reserves, little or no production at values far in excess of Trin.

Imo it should be worth 25p which is a respectable m/cap of £70m considering the strong revenue generation and cash it is throwing off and still at a 25% discount to the per barrel valuation metrics used above.
If they eventually move the 2c to 2P at some future point you could add a further $4/b or $79m (£60m) value ie another 21p and an overall potential of around 54p longer term.

Looking down the road with the available cash being thrown off, what can it be put to use to ? Further production possibilities to go beyond 3,000 bopd and exploration for more reserves over and above the current 2P and 2C so could be a good turnaround here ?

If anyone remembers the old Emerald Energy restructuring, it was an eventual 25+ bagger from its restructured low and sold for £530m in 2009 so there could be lots to come here once this overhang is cleared.

[aimmafia] 26/1/2017 16:25

This is so under valued.....