Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 31/3/2018 21:04

GO, absolutely fantastic summary of where we are!

WITJ, great graph, I had not seen that. My feeling is $80 oil some time in May looks likely but to see that people are betting on it is very interesting.

It is the reason I don’t understand anyone who has done enough reasearch to come across TRIN and buy sub 16p is content to flip some at a profit of 17p. I read this on other forums (rampy stocks) where “they are not getting my shares” but in TRINS case we are so under the radar and so un-rampy I have no interest in selling atm, with the company and sector prospects.

[whiskeyinthejar] 31/3/2018 18:36

I wasn't forecasting the April oil price. I just said your assumptions about seasonality are wrong and that April is typically a good month for WTI.

If I was to guess Id say wti is due a breather, but it'll stay in $60s, maybe bounce off $62.85 resistance (low of 19th Jan). Still good for Trinity. But why try to trade a short term trade down, when overall trend is up? Oil is news driven anyway, charts have limited use.

However traders are actually making big bets on $80 for May. What do you know that they don't ?



Anyway, regardless of whether WTI is $60 or $80, these oil prices are fantastic for Trinity. And as gabriel says, general picture for oil is bullish.

[whiskeyinthejar] 31/3/2018 16:47

Winter isn't peak demand period for oil. Americans drive a lot more when the weather is better. And as things get warmer, air conditioning across Middle East causes a huge demand surge.

In fact, April has had the HIGHEST average monthly performance over the past two decades as the market looks forward to summer.





However Im bullish of oil because of geopolitics, not seasonality. But Trinity will still make money almost regardless of the oil price.

Every month our balance sheet strengthens. :-)

[moneytree1] 31/3/2018 13:05

winter coming to an end, oil at the top of its range.

I say back down.

when it has nowhere else to go that usually happens.gl

[shrewdmole] 31/3/2018 11:29

Great article on oil price.com about what's driving the market.

[mark10101] 31/3/2018 11:12

MT, great post. Less than a year ago I don’t think that anyone that made it onto the mainstream media predicted price could go above $50 for long. I tend to ignore MS analysts for the reason laid out above and if possible make my ow view on the data available. There is some very intriguing numbers out there atm which to me is screaming higher oil price even if the US absolutely smashes it!

[mount teide] 31/3/2018 10:33

The major investment banks mostly talk their own book - when WTI oil was at $120 Goldman Sachs came out with a Note confidently predicting $200 oil - it dropped to $26 - how wrong can you be ?

You can bet your life Goldman's own account cleaned up into the drop before reversing and riding it back up again - in the investment bank's world investment losses are for the little people.

Its no coincidence that none of the large Wall Street Investment banks ever had a cent of their or their clients money in Madoff's high 'performing' fund.

When Harry Markopolis was asked on camera: "if the Wall Street investment banks knew that Madoff's claimed fund performance was impossible, why did't they alert the regulator" - he memorably replied, "those living in glass houses never throw stones" - ie; exposing Madoff would be bad for business!


The professional investment community have always seen PI's and pension funds as sheep for the fleecing - poorly regulated markets now entirely funded by the II community have simply brought an extra sophistication to the shearing process.

95% of managed funds fail to beat the index they are mirroring - as Terry Smith of Fundsmith fame inferred, the laws of probability render this collective performance as absurd.

The reality is their direct and indirect fund 'investment' charges, along with massive overtrading of positions to generate revenues for their own in-house brokers, the routine lending out of their clients investment stock for a fee to short the stock, and pre-selection by each other's in-house brokers for upcoming discounted placings in stock held in their funds, enabling shorting and buy back for their own account are just a few of the strategies routinely employed to fleece their clients and the wider market - since these and many other arrangements generate huge amounts of cash that goes straight into their own accounts not those of the fund.

When a friend set up a dummy investment portfolio to invest in a contrarian fashion to what one of the leading Wall Street Investment bank's analysts were putting out in their Company Notes and Market Forecast's; ie go long when they put out a company sell recommendation or a forecast for a drop in the price of a commodity and, to go short when they put out a company buy recommendation or a forecast for an increase in the price of a commodity - he said he had a success rate of over 70%, while the Investment bank got it right less than 30% of the time.

As he suggested, no one with their level of forecasting success would remain in business long if they were really investing mostly on the basis of their own recommendations.

The worlds largest shipbroker Clarkson's have a team of highly talented analysts that produce shipping, port and commodity industry research so good they are able to sell it to shipping companies, the ports industry, and Governments worldwide to name a few for highly significant sums - but, not before first using it for their own investment account to quite legally front run the market by, positioning their businesses and investments to benefit from the subsequent release of this widely respected and much in demand research.

The strategy has been so successful, Clarkson's share-price has increased from £0.90 to £32.00 in the last 17 years.

AIMHO/DYOR

[mark10101] 31/3/2018 09:24

Moneytree, do you actually read posts and their associated links?

I listened to your link. I have never subscribed to the breakeven price as a driver for oil price. It never has and never will be a driver of price. In the last few years we have had a period of oil being lower than virtually all producers breakeven prices, 10years ago it was massively higher than the breakeven prices. This is about supply and demand, read the article I posted and understand that even if the US delivers we are going to have significant global undersupply. I personally don’t think shale will deliver what analysts are pencilling in for them.

[moneytree1] 31/3/2018 08:54

US shale pumping will see oil prices slide back to $50, JP Morgan analyst predicts



most likely outcome imo

[mark10101] 31/3/2018 08:47

For the oil buffs, very interesting analysis of last nights EIA monthly numbers. My take is that even if US fracking delivers (I still don’t think it will) it will only supply 1/5th of the deficit the world needs this year, this is staggering but in line with everything else I have been reading, it is just being born out by the data now.




On GO’s very interesting post, at the end of the month the Venezuela/WTI spread was much tighter than the 1/4 18 average in his post, this shows this tightening trend is continuing which should be good news for TRINS realised prices.

Happy Easter all.

[mount teide] 29/3/2018 22:00

An old Venezuelan friend, a retired oil tanker sea captain tells me the oil sector is in a death spiral despite having one of the largest resource in the world. He said the current troubles of the oil industry are rooted in the disastrous policies implemented by Hugo Chavez - his useful idiot Maduro has simply carried on his former leader's idiotic policies.

According to its own report to OPEC, Venezuela’s production was 1.62 million barrels per day in December 2017, a decline of 649,000 b/d (or 29%) in just one year.

Incredibly, most of Venezuela's oil today does not generate any cash flow. Of 1.62 million b/d of crude that Venezuela was producing until late 2017, more than 400,000 b/d is heavily subsidized and consumed in the domestic market at a huge loss. About 500,000 b/d is committed to repay loans to China, Russia, and other countries. Around 50,000 b/d is supplied at a large discount to Caribbean countries, mainly to Cuba. Venezuela's current net cash flow comes from about 800,000 b/d - less than the UK's current North Sea oil production!

Maduro in a political purge last year appointed new management to the National Oil company - a military officer was appointed Minister of Oil and CEO of PDVSA, with a mandate to increase production and rid the company from corruption. The CEO and his new team - all military officers - according to my friend have no experience whatsoever of the oil industry, suggesting they will struggle to successfully manage the huge financial and operational challenges that the company and country is facing.

The outlook for 2018 appears bleak. Industry analysts expect the National Oil company will continue to have severe cash flow problems and forecast a further decline in production by around 15% or 250,000 b/d, and more, in the case of a full blown default or additional US sanctions.

Foreign investment into the oil sector and Nation has dropped off a cliff - its difficult to see that changing any time soon - particularly, if as likely Maduro steals the next elections and Trump responds by hitting the Venezuelan oil industry with further sanctions.

[whiskeyinthejar] 29/3/2018 21:42

The Russians and Chinese have 'helped' with loans, but the loans are being paid back with oil. So now huge amount of the oil being produced is being used to pay loans. Which in turn means less money for food.

Most of international community wont help because they dont want to prop up Maduro. Core problem is corruption of course.

Twitter today says the state oil company PVDSA is going to close three of its four big domestic refineries indefinitely in next few weeks due to a lack of crude to process and staff shortages.

Err what? They are closing the refineries due to staff shortages and no crude in country with worlds largest oil reserves and huge unemployment. Crazy stuff.

[whiskeyinthejar] 29/3/2018 20:12

Gabriel, I don't know much about Petrotrins pricing.

But Venezuela is a tragedy. People are starving, it's really bad.



So they need the oil for money to feed people, but oil workers aren't getting fed and oil wells aren't being maintained. This means less and less oil is being produced and therefore less money for food. Its literally a death spiral.

May 20th is election. If as expected Maduro doesn't allow a free election, Trump may increase sanctions and put the nail in coffin.

[spellbrook] 29/3/2018 16:42

Well it’s been a good few days for Trinity Exploration &Production with lots more interest and hopefully a new base to build from


Happy Easter TRINNERS

[spellbrook] 29/3/2018 10:37

looking back at this reporting, Bruce and the team have been true to their words

Positive performance Trinity Exploration & Production suggests turnaround plan is working
12:01 09 Aug 2017
"Trinity has a clear strategic focus going forward, which is to grow our reserves and production to maximise the cash flow from our core assets," says chief executive Bruce Dingwall.

[...]

[shrewdmole] 29/3/2018 08:50

Mark

They were bidding strong all day yesterday and a block of 100k just been put on bid side.

Once the large player has done we will be in the 20's easily.

That aside there is so much upside here and all with a very secure financial base.

There must be ii's looking at the sector in general and then looking for value plays.

Most o and g plays are hyped on 1 big well that transforms production numbers but that's higher risk. We have low cost production from lots of wells so not reliant on 1 or 2 wells for it. Very low cost base and once that debt and cln are gone there will be a good rerate.

Add in galeota farm out potential and spt reform and a rising oil price and a very steady share starts to look very exciting. That really is what I like here it's not a binary bet but one we know is making money every day they operate and that it can only get better.

In unpredictable markets there aren't many stocks you can say that about.

S

[mark10101] 29/3/2018 08:17

SM very much on the same page as you. Wonder how the MM’s will get on today filling their 18.2p order, shame we have been held up to do it but as per normal should move on nicely when done.