Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 27/2/2018 11:41

Interesting 1 trade deployed.

[whiskeyinthejar] 27/2/2018 09:40

U.S. oil future is a bet on a single play. Permian Basin is the only tight oil play producing more oil than the April 2015 peak.






This is risky. Five potential pitfalls that could hamper Permian include costs, gas, drilling intensity and land:

[spellbrook] 26/2/2018 16:31

OIL looking a little perky again $$$$$

[whiskeyinthejar] 26/2/2018 14:48

I don't think Malcy sees himself as a tipster but over time, when ppl find themselves sitting on cash, I think they still do heed his mentions of companies when they are shopping for shares. IMO oil shares on his bucket list are generally better picks than those not. So GKP, FRR, RRL, SLE etc dont make the cut. But you still have to DYOR of course.

[mesquida] 26/2/2018 14:12

Nice tip, but has not exactly unleashed a torrent of buying interest. Does Malcy no longer have a fan club ?!

[mesquida] 26/2/2018 14:12

Nice tip, but has not exactly unleashed a torrent of buying interest. Does Malcy no longer have a fan club ?!

[spellbrook] 26/2/2018 12:29

Also intimated some time ago was the inclusion of Trinity Exploration & Production who has come back from almost the brink to become probably the most profitable company in the sector. Its mixture of recompletions, workovers and reactivations has come into its own as production last quarter increased by another 11% which is very impressive and shows a clear upward trajectory. Its EBITDA margins are very high and I think yet to be appreciated by the market, this year should see a notable improvement as drilling may mark a material step change in its fortunes. I expect consistently good progress from Trinity this year as management deliver on the promises they have made but not bragged about, a rock solid pick for the list.

[mark10101] 26/2/2018 12:18

Excellent news! Can only help raise awarness, let’s hope that is the first of a string of good news to come.

[mawc] 26/2/2018 11:57

Malcys Bucket list finally published. Trinity makes it to the list as expected. Every little helps until we get next news which is not that far off now

[l j] 25/2/2018 23:23

Belated thanks for the article, Spell. Well worth the read.

[spellbrook] 25/2/2018 12:49

If we re sell west coast that’s 2-3p on shareprice at these oil prices

If we do a farmout or Jv that’s 5-20p on shareprice

When we hit 3000bopd that’s worth 1-2p on shareprice

New drilling 5-20p

Clns paid off 5-10p

All imo, wait and see

Ps..looking forward to oil in the $70’s

[bones] 25/2/2018 12:05

Edit, Mark, I see you already referred to the 3 for 1 ratio :)

[bones] 25/2/2018 12:03

Mark, don't forget that we have triple the number of shares in issue now compared to 2014 following the recapitalisation, placings and debt wash through at end of 2016.Even so, assuming a current price of 15p, that's equivalent to 45p in old money. At its peak in late 2013, with about 4K barrels per day being produced (vs. 3k in early 2018), the share price hit 150p albeit oil was over $100 pb. Against the favourable oil price then, was the large chunk of debt TRIN had.There's room for TRIN to double (at a minimum) in 2018 on that basis, once sentiment turns on oilers (and TRIN issues its final results).

[mark10101] 25/2/2018 09:06

Thanks Spellbrook, good to be reminded why I bought in in 2014 at £1.... We have the same assets and $30m less debt, £3 then would be a target of £1 now which I still believe is possible in the next 18 months.

I think the coming weeks we will know more, interesting how quiet TRIN have been on Twitter. We saw only 3 posts in the last two months compared with 24 in November and December.

[spellbrook] 25/2/2018 07:09

Does Galeota block become the catalyst in the future ???

2017....In addition the Company has initiated an internal review of the Trinites infill drilling programme and the Trinites-TGAL and Galeota Ridge development plan.



2014....Double up with Trinity
Broker price target suggests significant upside at explorer

[mount teide] 24/2/2018 13:44

Following chart compares the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(20 major commodities including energy) v S&P500 over nearly 50 years.

The hugely cyclical nature of the GSCI Commodity chart closely mirrors the Baltic Dry Index Shipping Chart over a similar period.




One reason oil and base metal prices tend to rise with interest rates is that this relationship tends to point to an environment of increased global economic activity/growth. Companies anticipate an increase in economic activity and so are more willing to borrow to finance expansion.

The increased appetite for borrowing leads to higher interest rates as there is more demand for borrowed funds. This same environment of increased global economic activity likewise tends to be one where there is an increase in demand for base metals and oil.

The 10 Year US Treasury peaked at 5.1% when the oil/shipping/metals markets last peaked in 2008/9 and bottomed at 1.35% in H1/2016 along with the oil/shipping/metals markets.

The 10 Year Treasury has since risen to circa 2.85% - the 25 year average is over 5% - and strongly broke out of a previous, incredibly resilient 30 year downtrend upper line during Q3/2017.

While oil and base metals producer stocks have already been in an increasingly bullish trend since H2/2016, driven primarily by strengthening fundamentals and rising global economic growth; modestly rising interest rates in 2018/19 is likely to reinforce this trend.

In H1/2016 after waiting nearly 8 years for the Baltic Dry Index(-98%) to finally make a bottom, Copper(-56%), Zinc(-66%) and oil(-76%) as expected, also made a bottom within a few months of the BDI - not altogether unsurprising since 95% of all commodity production sees the bottom of a ships cargo hold at some stage between the mine/oil field - refiner/manufacturer - finished goods buyers.

This was the signal I had been waiting for to go in extremely heavily in the copper/zinc/oil/shipping sectors - and continued to average up aggressively in 2017 by reversing out of long term positions in other sectors as the commodity sector cyclical recovery continues to gather pace.

The good news is that we are still in the foothills regarding recovery of the BDI, copper and oil prices - they are still 90%, 46% and 54% respectively below the 2008/9 cyclical highs and 93%(BDI), 56%(Copper) and 63%(oil) below the inflation adjusted previous highs!

A number of factors suggest this commodity cycle recovery/boom phase may have a longer life expectation and greater trough/peak price range than in previous cycles:

The last industrial metals/shipping/oil sector recession phase was longer and deeper than any previous cycle.

After a decade of low investment following the financial crisis many high population Nations are now actively involved in implementing huge capital expenditure programs to rebuild their crumbling infrastructure - India & USA to name a few - while most of the fast growing African and the emerging Nation economies are carrying out and accelerating infrastructure and industrialisation development programmes similar to China in 2000-2008.

Global GDP forecasts have seen repeated uplifts by the IMF to nearly 4% for 2018 and 2019, together with the US announcing a record programme of tax cuts, greater even than the Reagan era which produced an enormous decade long economic boost.

The fundamentals, interest rates, bond yields, the long term charts for shipping, base metals and oil all strongly point to the next 5 years as being the half decade that these sectors came storming back.

Ignore them at your investment peril!


AIMHO/DYOR

[che7win] 24/2/2018 11:51

Thanks Spell,
Interesting insights.

[l j] 24/2/2018 10:38

Any chance of posting the complete article please, Spell??

[spellbrook] 24/2/2018 09:49

Interesting read...

2018 Energy Roundtable: Don’t Give Up on Oil

ByLauren R. Rublin February 24, 2018

[bones] 23/2/2018 23:16

I am not losing sight of the fact that the Non-Exec Director, Menzies, bought three slices of TRIN totalling nearly 700k shares using his own cash (ie, not cheap options etc) at around current prices in late 2017. An investor called Jennings similarly bought his stake to over 4%.It's hard to think anything has happened since that would change their minds so I'm sure we are all sitting back waiting for the stars to align for TRIN. My guess is that the year end numbers could kick this off.

[mark10101] 23/2/2018 16:13

Yes, Oil looking very bullish. Feb average looking very good considering the dip. TRIN chart looking like a coiled spring, let's hope for some good news in the coming weeks.

[spellbrook] 23/2/2018 15:28

OIL looking perky again $$$$$$$$$$