Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[fsawatcher] 01/12/2017 13:03

jus check in with yous trinners

hows dat goin ??

slip slidin back to 12p/13p innit

you woz given scalp up

some diss me some like me but you know me

it jus tradin innit nuffink personals like nasty rash on your doo dar

[mark10101] 01/12/2017 10:15

14.75 bid 16.5 offer, we certainly are in a funny phase atm.

[mark10101] 01/12/2017 07:44

WITJ, yes a risky game calling a day for an announcement like this. I remember at the beginning of the year they said by the end of Q1 so I was eagerly anticipating it during the last few weeks of that qrt.

Also as you say I doubt it will be immediate, the start of the next financial year makes sense on Jan 1st. Whether we get a formal announcement today or not surely they will flesh out the details for people after the meeting.

[markth126] 30/11/2017 21:31

Why do you say it's a sell

[whiskeyinthejar] 30/11/2017 19:47

Mark, it doesn't matter to me, whether its tomorrow or another few weeks. It could be tomorrow- parliament sits tomorrow if that helps.

However, the consultation period is already done. We know Trinity were involved in that. January 1st is start of new TT tax year and SPT is assessed quarterly, I don't see them changing it mid quarter.

But it's still possible Imbert might waive it for October -December, because it's not paid until January so TRIN wont have parted with any cash yet. That might be wishful thinking, but the government has forgiven debts before and they'll have the December BPTT royalty payment.

Anyway, Imbert has said he thinks he'll be in a position to present his plans before year end. So it's soon. That's main thing imo. Trinity is accumulating cash regardless of tax reform or oil price.

[mark10101] 30/11/2017 19:18

WITJ, I have pinned some hopes on an announcement tomorrow as it make sense to make available the rest of the changes, so a bigger picture can be gained.

The article below from Oct 1st alludes to that, however who knows, they may miss the end of the year completely.....



“President of the Energy Chamber Dax Driver said it was “difficult “to say too much about the 12.5% royalty for oil and gas production. He said, “we have to look at it in the context of the overall proposed changes to the entire oil and gas regime.”

Driver said the tax was “still a work in progress,” as the Government was still working on the details. The tax takes effect from December 1.

Commenting on proposed new tax, the American Chamber of Commerce said “most worrying is the potential negative impact on investment of the additional taxes on the upstream energy sector, most significant of which will be the proposed Supplemental Petroleum Tax on gas. We hope that this will only be done after consultation with the industry.””

[ffp] 30/11/2017 19:09

Sounds like a sell then?

[whiskeyinthejar] 30/11/2017 19:02

Im not sure if Imbert will say anything new about reforming oil taxes tomorrow. Seems unlikely as I wouldn't normally expect news from an select committee, although I wouldn't normally expect a government minister to chair a select committee either. In UK, its backbenchers who get elected onto them.

Worth listening in for the general chat on energy I think anyway.

But from tomorrow, BPTT and maybe some other gas companies will be paying 12.5% in royalties. That's an increase of 25% from BPTT who produce more than 60% of TT gas. It's a lot more revenue for Imbert.

[mark10101] 30/11/2017 16:25

OPEC has extended cuts to the end of next year, with a review in June. The seeds have been sown for a colossal ralley in oil. We just need favourable tax amendments and TRIN will look a very different beast in 6 months time.

[gleach23] 30/11/2017 11:57

nafafa...they are not all sells. the trades @ 15.3749 are buys

[mark10101] 30/11/2017 11:33

Yes, seems traders are gone and LTH only now. My view is there is risk the tax changes will not be a favourable as Bruce and we hope for. However even if they fail to improve the playing fields for the smaller companies like TRIN (which would be a failure of one of the key objectives they set out to do!) TRIN has to be worth north of 15p at current oil price and should oil do as it looks to be doing and push into the $60 the picture improves dramatically. However should the tax reform be possitve for TRIN and our assets there will be a lot looking at 15p and wondering why they did not buy.

[makingmillions] 30/11/2017 11:31

There may be some hidden buying as well though. I bought this morning and not showing yet.

[nafafa] 30/11/2017 11:06

Interesting, 300k shares sold this morning in 9 transactions yet offer price nor dropped. Perhaps it is the case that mms are not able to spook sufficient holders into selling. I was rather hoping for a drop so I could top up

[mark10101] 30/11/2017 09:50

Just a reminder of the Bruce’s comments re the new tax regime.




03 October 2017

Trinity Exploration & Production plc

("Trinity" or "the Group" or "the Company")

Trinidad and Tobago 2018 Budget Highlights

Trinity, the independent E&P company focused on Trinidad and Tobago is pleased to note proposed reforms encouraging investment in the energy sector included in yesterday's Budget Statement in Trinidad, which could have a positive impact on future trading for the Company.

The Statement specifically addresses the Energy Tax Regime:

We have started a review of the energy tax regime in order to simplify and rationalise the terms of both Production licences and Production Sharing contracts. The main objectives of this reform are to encourage investment in the energy sector and raise the Government's revenue-take

Critical areas being addressed are:

-- Making the Supplemental Petroleum Tax responsive not to price but to underlying profitability;

-- Extending the Supplemental Petroleum Tax to gas, which is now the country's main petroleum product;

-- Reconciling and simplifying the fiscal regimes applicable to the exploration and production and production sharing systems; and

-- Standardising and uniformly applying appropriate royalty rates to all crude oil, condensate and gas.

Negotiations between the energy companies and the Government are well advanced and we expect to be in a position to present the new oil and gas fiscal regime before the end of this year.*

Bruce A. I. Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:

"This could prove to be an extremely important change for the Company in terms of bottom line economics and Company valuation. The Government is aligned with Trinity in seeking to increase oil production and once the terms of the changes to SPT are clear we will then be in a position to quantify what the effect on the Company will be.

"On the face of it this announcement looks like good news and we continue to work hard on building on the strong first half and look forward to updating the market further in due course."

* extract taken from full Budget Statement available here hxxp://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/BUDGET-STATEMENT-2018-BOOKLET-faw.pdf

[phowdo] 30/11/2017 09:20

15p area is looking like the 10p area a few months ago.

[mark10101] 28/11/2017 15:24

WTI back to $58.

[mark10101] 28/11/2017 15:14

Richy, for ever one person posting on these threads there are 10’s of watchers that use them to form an opinion. Not many investors try and take a fundamental approach where they formulate a value through there own research and discussions with the more inflormative posters on here.

Many just try and work out if it is a goer upper or a goer downer, so negative posting can influence in the short term. However any comment today could be totally irrelevant by the end of the week if T&T announce their new taxation plans. LAW may well have taken a small loss last week to prevent a further loss if the announcement is not a good as hopped for, others like me will hold because if oil does, as even Law himself thinks, the tax reigime will be a lot less relevant as our new low cost base compensates for the current tax Reigime at oil in the $70’s.

[richyggg] 28/11/2017 13:59

What a card that LW425 is. He can move markets with his wise words.

[mount teide] 28/11/2017 13:49

Nothing?

That's a bit harsh, we've seen the POO go up 30%!

At least no one can accuse you of not taking a balanced approach to equity investment - your incessant, inane ramping when long balances out beautifully your incessant, inane de-ramping when short:

'$99 oil should see TRIN at about 250p.
Fingers crossed!'

'Profits in 2019 will be off the scale.'

'I suspect that when the reforms are confirmed in Dec we should see TRIN rerate to mid 30's as it will be a game changer. As usual with AIM the mark up will be more or less instant so best build your positions now if you are intending to do so.'

'The Whitman Howard note specifically states 33p target by December 2017.
I suspect having engaged with the TRIN board they know more that us mushrooms.
Last chance sub 20p.'

'logic says that 9.5p is a fair price'

[che7win] 28/11/2017 13:41

Erm,
the oil price for 1?
Increased production for 2?
New drills and prospects and cashflow, list is impressive, yes?

[lw425] 28/11/2017 13:35

If you think about it what has changed since 9.5p late summer?

Nothing.

So logic says that 9.5p is a fair price target.

[lw425] 28/11/2017 13:31

Looks like a backtest of 9.5p on the cards..........

[ffp] 27/11/2017 20:16

Oh chuckle