Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[jemjem] 09/8/2017 13:16

Malcy's take on it...

In today’s H1 operational update the company uses the phrase ‘step-change’ a number of times, this is most accurate as the company increases its financial performance with each step of the transition following the return to the capital markets. Operationally, production is solid, increasing short and medium term despite a one-off fall in the second quarter for specific, unavoidable reasons. It is now back over 2,500 b/d, indeed during August it is expected to be between 2,550 and 2,650 b/d, full year guidance remains at 2,600-2,800 and 3,000 b/d is expected within 12 months time.

Financially things are also improving, the consolidated netback was ‘very robust’ at $13.50bin the period ($3.30 for the same period last year) and the balance sheet remains strong with cash of $11.5m from revenues and the raise. Both OPEX and the G&A charge are below budget as the management ruthlessly ensure that margins are preserved. Trinity continue to maintain that it is important to strengthen foundations in three areas, firstly by maturing the pipeline of value-creating producing growth opportunities, secondly by ‘enhancing asset integrity’ and finally by delivering on their growth strategy. This will be helped significantly as they have managed to justify contracting a new rig to execute and enlarged RCP programme.

It can be seen that Trinity management is rigorously managing costs thus increasing margins as production rises, along with maintaining cash levels. The company are particularly aware of the need to grow reserves and production in order to maximise cash flow ‘from our core assets while achieving a market value that is more reflective of our underlying assets’. With its ‘diverse and deep portfolio’ of low cost production and development assets that it can bring into play in due course Trinity is back in the game, big time.

[shrewdmole] 09/8/2017 12:47

Did someone say Trin was mentioned on malcys blog today?

[oilandgas1] 09/8/2017 12:36

Good RNS today..positive progress I have added.. if this share price does not double ( assuming POO above 50$), within 6-8 months I will be very surprised! ( also ripe for a buyout)

Financials ( note $ and £)
Market cap =£29.3m
Cash @jun17 = $11.5m
Debt: $9.7m
FCF of $2.5m pcm
Capex for 2017: ???
Estimated Revenue: $25.16m Py 2017
Break even = 18$ onshore & 30$pb offshore
Production: onshore (1400bopd) & offshore (1200bopd)

Production
The H2 2017 focus is on the delivery of production growth from the parallel activity sets described above and in the AGM statement dated 23 June 2017. These activities should enable production guidance (2,600 bopd - 2,800 bopd annual average for 2017) to be achieved from this lower cost yet higher economic activity set.
During July production levels were restored and exceeded 2,500 bopd. A production run-rate of between 2,550 - 2,650 bopd is expected during August with a continuing upward trajectory.

Reserves and Trintes, Galetoa growth and upside (2018)
2P & 2C reserves ~42MMBoe excl Galetoa ~20MMboe Production growth: 500-800bopd
Target total production in excess of 3400bopd

[aimmafia] 09/8/2017 11:47

Removing the downtime we wood of probably been slightly up yasx. Everything's good here. Would love to see TGAL coming into play

[malreid] 09/8/2017 11:32

My buy 26750 showing as a sell as well.

[yasx] 09/8/2017 11:24

Shrewdmole,

I agree it is going in the right direction - the reference to lower cash balances was on the basis that additional spend has not translated into production higher than what they have today stated - that is marginally disappointing.

[shrewdmole] 09/8/2017 11:13

Yas

I think cash looks ok considering they've made the first debt payment and have really hit the maintenance and drilling.

That target bopd was an average for 2017 so I suspect they are well on their way to lifting the current production.

Like you say no fireworks but it does underpin the valuation gap.

S

[aimmafia] 09/8/2017 11:08

11.499995 rather :)

[aimmafia] 09/8/2017 11:08

Yes bid currently 11.11 - 14.99995

[glennborthwick] 09/8/2017 11:02

the 11.499 showing as a sell is my buy

[glennborthwick] 09/8/2017 11:01

added another £500 , candy off a baby

[aimmafia] 09/8/2017 10:59

4000 is a big ask. I wouldn't be surprised if we heard about a high impact drill soon

[croasdalelfc] 09/8/2017 10:45

Personally I think the CEO is gearing up for an operational update in Sept to set new higher production targets for 2018 , 3500-4000 perhaps?

[yasx] 09/8/2017 10:43

Bit of a mixed bag - production lower than I had hoped for (incidentally, it was some six months ago that 3000bopd within 12 months was forecast, the same number of months now repeated today!), cash balance slightly lower than hoped for, but, no shockers in the update and things moving along albeit at a pace slightly more leisurely than what one might have hoped for.

Overall, remains undervalued, but, no real spark to get it motoring ahead in the short term.

Still long.

[shrewdmole] 09/8/2017 10:06

See it as a favour. Surely better to add after that update at these levels than having to pay 15p+

[marvelman] 09/8/2017 09:51

Seller still having fun it seems

[mark10101] 09/8/2017 09:31

Actually pleased we did not spike into open, it allows late comers to read the RNS and make a less rushed decision, this sometimes allows strength to build over the whole day rather than the first 30mins.

[mark10101] 09/8/2017 09:29

They were scheduled to make first payment then, I would have been very surprised if they had not. As AIM says cash would be even better if they hadn't. $1m net per month cash build, plenty to put to work increasing production and paying down the last of the debt. They will be making money work and I personaly dont want to see the money used for any than no other than paying down debt and building production and infrastructure this year. Sets us up nicely next year. If oil gets into the $60's Trin will be making $2m/ month.

[aimmafia] 09/8/2017 09:20

I think they did otherwise the cash balance would of been much higher.

[f3rdinand] 09/8/2017 09:14

Bought 100k myself... been watching and waiting for the update! What's not to like at this price?

[swampydrill] 09/8/2017 09:12

Thats another 90k, even showed up in the correct column.Wished i had bought them last week but just not sure why it was down there, happy with that update though.

[bones] 09/8/2017 08:42

Added a further 100k at average 11.5p this morning.